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Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/10/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various baseball bets.
We have a lot of day baseball today as it's "getaway day" in a number of series. That means you need to act quickly if you're going to hit some of these bets!
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Most days we try to offer at least two of our "best bets" whether they are totals, money lines, or run lines but sometimes I feel generous (or maybe greedy) and do three. Today happens to be one of those days, so I do have three of my favorite bets for you after all.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Oakland @ New York
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: NYY -240
OAK: Kyle Muller | NYY: Jhony Brito
These teams combined for 15 runs last night and we get some more bad pitching in the series finale today. Oakland will roll with Kyle Muller, who has a 5.69 SIERA and 7.59 expected ERA so far this season. He hasn't been missing many bats at all with only a 12% strikeout rate and he's walking too many guys with an 11% BB rate.
Two-run home run for Gleyber Torres! He's on fire again pic.twitter.com/EYbhbihxRD
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 10, 2023
The Yankees are heavily favored here and will surely score some runs, but they are also putting their weakest pitcher on the mound, too. Brito has a 5.35 SIERA and an expected ERA of 6.08. He's allowed his share of home runs, too, and carries a 13% barrel rate of his own.
I think we see a lot of offense here from both sides and I have this one projected well over ten runs, despite Oakland's paltry overall numbers for the year as they've been coming on fairly strong over the last few weeks. We are getting the over 9.5 at even money and I'm happily smashing that button today. Let's not forget that the Oakland bullpen is the gift that keeps on giving (over a 6 SIERA), too!
Pick: OVER 9.5 runs (+100, DK Sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAD -165
LAD: Clayton Kershaw| MIL: Wade Miley
Happy Kershaw Day to all of you who celebrate! The Dodgers ace gets the best of all possible matchups today as he faces the Milwaukee Brewers. These numbers from Milwaukee against lefties are just simply incredible in terms of how bad they've been, it's not an exaggeration in the slightest. The Brewers are dead last in wRC+ at 64 and ISO at .115 while having the worst K rate against Southpaws at 31%.
Mookie Betts AIN’T AFRAID OF NO GHOSTS pic.twitter.com/mzXyiGYXaj
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) May 9, 2023
The Dodgers haven't been all that great against lefties either, but they got the job done last night against Eric Lauer just fine, scoring six runs. I think even 3-4 runs today against Wade Miley (who owns a 4.89 SIERA) is probably enough to cover the run line here as I think Kershaw and the bullpen can shut down this Brewers offense completely.
This money line is in the area where I would put in parlays instead of bet it straight up, so I am going to be a tad more aggressive and go after the run line here at even money.
Pick: LAD -1.5 (+100, DK Sportsbook)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Miami @ Arizona
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ARI -140
MIA: Edward Cabrera | ARI : Merrill Kelly
This game features the biggest disparity in offenses of any game on the slate today. Arizona is averaging 5.3 runs per contest through the first month and a half while the Marlins have managed just 3.3 runs. Miami won yesterday and got two big home runs from Jorge Soler as they faced Arizona's rookie Brandon Pfaadt, but they'll have to face the Snakes' ace today in Merrill Kelly instead.
Kelly has been coming on strong, especially in his last two starts and he allowed just one run in each of them and he struck out a season-high 10 Nationals last week.
Edward Cabrera has been pitching better for Miami, too, but he still has some walk issues and a problem with giving up home runs.
Even if we view these pitchers as equals (and I think Kelly is slightly better) the Arizona offense is significantly better and I think they'll win this one today. At -140, I am good with the money line here and I don't trust Arizona's bullpen enough to go with a run-line bet.
Pick: Arizona ML (-140, DK Sportsbook)
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