X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/28/22)

yuli gurriel fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves a tough 0-2 day on Sunday. Sundays are tough, but fortunately, I've been getting warmer since, and I'm looking to carry that momentum into this week. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, April 28, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.

Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!

 

LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks

  • Season to Date: 11-12-1, -4.23 units
  • Sides: 8-6, +0.54 units
  • Totals: 2-6-1, -4.78 units
  • Notes:

 

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TEX +140

HOU: Justin Verlander | TEX: Martin Perez

I'll start today's slate off out in Texas, as the Astros and Rangers close up their series. Houston will be sending veteran and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to the hill this afternoon. He's been fantastic this season, coming into this one 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 3.13 xFIP. He gets a solid matchup against the Rangers, who rank 28th in both OPS (.568) and wRC+ (72). He's won five straight starts against the Rangers, albeit all back in 2019, but he's dominated Texas, and that should continue this today.

On the other side of the matchup, Texas will be sending southpaw Martin Perez to the mound. I may have undervalued how good Perez was before his last start against Oakland, and he is coming into this one with an ERA of 3.86 and an xFIP of 3.88. However, it's more likely that I simply overvalued the A's. The Astros haven't necessarily been lighting scoreboards up lately, but they are familiar with Perez and have had success against him.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Astros at -166 in this one, good for 62.4% implied odds. My model gives them a 66.2% chance of winning, so we're getting solid value here. There's a staunch value difference in starters here, too, as Verlander comes into this one graded 76.01 and Perez comes into this one graded at 52.31 The Astros have dominated in Texas as well, winning four of their last five games there. I'll be backing the Astros to close out this series with a win.

Pick: Houston Money Line (-166) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: STL -180

ARI: Humberto Castellanos | STL: Dakota Hudson

We'll head to St. Louis for the second game of the day, as the Diamondbacks take on the Cardinals to open up the series. Arizona will be sending Humberto Castellanos to the mound, who comes into this one 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He should show some regression to the mean though, with his xFIP sitting at 5.30. The Cardinals were shut down in the first two games of the Mets' series, but they bounced back yesterday in an emotional contest, logging ten runs.

On the other side of the field, Dakota Hudson takes the ball for St. Louis. Hudson comes into this one 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 4.51 xFIP. He struggled in his first two outings but bounced back Saturday against Cincinnati, where he threw 6.2 shutout innings. While Cincinnati's offense is the worst against right-handed pitching in the majors, Arizona isn't far behind. The DBacks rank 24th in OPS (.616) and 25th in wRC+ (81).

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cardinals at -180, good for 64.29% implied odds. While that line is pretty juiced, my model gives the Cardinals a 67.75% chance of winning, good for +3.46% EV. There's a decent margin between starters here as well, as Hudson comes into this one with a model rating of 63.5, while Castellanos comes into this one rated 43.12. The Cardinals have dominated this matchup in past years, and I expect that to continue today. Back the home favorite.

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (-180) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit

 

Good luck, Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more plays throughout the day!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Austin Hooper12 mins ago

Heading To Vegas
Elijah Moore24 mins ago

Dealt To Cleveland
Jose Altuve37 mins ago

No Baseball Activities For Two Months
Jalen McDaniels44 mins ago

Ruled Out Wednesday
Mecole Hardman44 mins ago

Agrees To One-Year Deal With Jets
James Harden47 mins ago

Will Sit Wednesday
Alex Caruso50 mins ago

Will Play Against Philadelphia
Ja Morant55 mins ago

To Come Off Bench, See Minutes Limit Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton1 hour ago

And Chris Duarte Ruled Out Wednesday
Kyle Hendricks1 hour ago

Has Three Bullpen Sessions Lined Up
Caleb Martin1 hour ago

Available To Play Wednesday
Kyle Lowry1 hour ago

Will Play Versus Knicks
Torey Krug1 hour ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Filip Hronek1 hour ago

Set For Canucks Debut Thursday
Kyrie Irving1 hour ago

Remains Out Versus Golden State
Luka Doncic2 hours ago

Will Play Wednesday
Bradley Beal2 hours ago

Sitting Versus Nuggets
Elvis Merzlikins2 hours ago

Available For Selection Again
Connor Ingram2 hours ago

Faces Oilers Wednesday
Brandon Nimmo2 hours ago

Could Be Ready For Games This Weekend
Stuart Skinner2 hours ago

In Oilers Crease On Wednesday
Shohei Ohtani2 hours ago

Will Throw In Minor League Game Friday
Darren Helm2 hours ago

Returns To Action Wednesday
Drew Rucinski2 hours ago

To Miss Next Start, IL Stint Possible
Cale Makar2 hours ago

Misses Another Game Wednesday
Kyle Tucker3 hours ago

Should Be Fine Moving Forward
Ranger Suárez3 hours ago

Ranger Suarez Likely To Begin Year On IL
Colton Cowser3 hours ago

Orioles Reassign Colton Cowser
Heston Kjerstad3 hours ago

Gets Reassigned
Oswald Peraza3 hours ago

Continues To Struggle
Keldon Johnson4 hours ago

Could Miss Second Consecutive Game
Jalen McDaniels4 hours ago

Questionable With Hip Soreness
Karl-Anthony Towns4 hours ago

Expected To Return On Wednesday
Bradley Beal4 hours ago

Now Listed As Questionable On Wednesday
Jordan Clarkson4 hours ago

Remains Sidelined With Finger Sprain
Lauri Markkanen4 hours ago

Is Available On Wednesday
Zion Williamson4 hours ago

Cleared For On-Court Activities
Paul George4 hours ago

Will Miss At Least Two-To-Three Weeks
D'Ernest Johnson5 hours ago

Signs With Jaguars
C.J. Stroud6 hours ago

Panthers Meet With C.J. Stroud
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6 hours ago

Runs 4.53 Unofficial Forty
DeAndre Hopkins6 hours ago

Not On Browns' Radar
Russell Wilson6 hours ago

Expected To Be Fine For OTAs
Hunter Brown8 hours ago

Scratched On Wednesday
Brandon Ingram8 hours ago

Scores Game-High 32 Points In Easy Win
Donovan Mitchell8 hours ago

Scores At Will Against Brooklyn
Trae Young8 hours ago

Collects Another Double-Double In Win
Miro Heiskanen9 hours ago

Matches Franchise Record Tuesday
Brett Baty9 hours ago

Survives Another Round Of Cuts
Wyatt Johnston9 hours ago

Pushes His Goal Streak To Five Games
Brandon Tanev9 hours ago

Produces A Big Performance Against Dallas
Francisco Alvarez9 hours ago

Mets Demote Francisco Alvarez
Luke Evangelista9 hours ago

Ties Franchise Record With Four-Point Period
Quinn Hughes9 hours ago

Continues Multi-Assist Streak
Troy Terry9 hours ago

Exits With Injury
Brock Nelson10 hours ago

Injured Versus Toronto
Josh Anderson10 hours ago

Gets Hurt Tuesday
Shintaro Fujinami19 hours ago

To Receive Extra Rest Between Regular Season Starts
Juan Soto19 hours ago

Oblique Strain Deemed "Minimal"
Clayton Kershaw19 hours ago

Pitches Well Tuesday
Byron Buxton19 hours ago

To Serve Primarily As DH
Lucas Giolito19 hours ago

Not Concerned With Velocity Dip Tuesday
Alex Ovechkin19 hours ago

Lights The Lamp In Capitals Loss
Shohei Ohtani19 hours ago

Wins World Baseball Classic MVP Award
Jack Roslovic19 hours ago

Scores Twice in Columbus Victory
Brandon Nimmo23 hours ago

Tests His Ankle/Knee
Noah Syndergaard23 hours ago

Pitches Through Blister Issue Tuesday
Taylor Montgomery24 hours ago

A Hard Fade In Austin
Sam Burns24 hours ago

Hard To Trust At WGC Dell Match Play
Kirby Dach1 day ago

Returns To Action Tuesday
Evgeny Kuznetsov1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Ryan Lindgren1 day ago

Back For Rangers Tuesday
Jordan Greenway1 day ago

Won't Play Tuesday
Arizona Cardinals1 day ago

Cardinals Agree With L.J. Collier On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Cowboys To Re-Sign Dante Fowler To One-Year Deal
Pittsburgh Steelers1 day ago

Steelers Re-Sign Cornerback James Pierre
Max Homa1 day ago

A Strong Contender In Austin
Atlanta Falcons1 day ago

Falcons Planning To Host Calais Campbell
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Broncos Expected To Draft RB This Year
Ronald Jones1 day ago

Cowboys Agree To Deal With Ronald Jones
Austin Ekeler1 day ago

Would Like To Stay With Chargers
Lamar Jackson1 day ago

Ready To Move On From Ravens?
Minnesota Vikings1 day ago

Vikings Re-Sign Jonathan Bullard
Miami Dolphins1 day ago

Dolphins Re-Sign Andrew Van Ginkel
Miles Sanders1 day ago

Viewed As Three-Down Back In Carolina
New England Patriots1 day ago

Dont'a Hightower Announces His Retirement
Bijan Robinson1 day ago

Taking Pre-Draft Visit With Eagles
Tom Hoge1 day ago

A Bracket-Buster In Match Play
Hideki Matsuyama1 day ago

Doesn't Perform In Match Play
Kamaru Usman1 day ago

Unsuccessful In Bid To Recapture Title
Leon Edwards1 day ago

Defends Crown At UFC 286
Viktor Hovland1 day ago

Has Struggled In Match Play
Rafael Fiziev1 day ago

Has Strong Showing But Takes Loss
Justin Gaethje1 day ago

Puts On Another Highlight-Reel Performance
Tyrrell Hatton1 day ago

The Favorite In His Group
Bryan Barberena1 day ago

Suffers Second Straight Submission Loss
Gunnar Nelson1 day ago

Scores Impressive Finish At UFC 286
Will Zalatoris1 day ago

Needs Birdies At WGC Match Play
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Can Advance At WGC Match Play
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

May Struggle At WGC Match Play
Chris Kirk2 days ago

Draws A Bit Unlucky At WGC Match Play
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Has Good Chance At WGC Match Play
Brian Harman2 days ago

Has Putter's Chance To Contend At WGC
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Has Challenge At WGC Match Play
Casey O'Neill2 days ago

Takes First Defeat Against Former Champion
Jennifer Maia2 days ago

Earns Decision Win Over Undefeated Opponent
Roman Dolidze2 days ago

Suffers Setback With Decision Loss
Marvin Vettori2 days ago

Picks Up Decision Win
Kyle Busch2 days ago

Finishes In Top 10 At Atlanta
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Finishes Strong In Atlanta
Erik Jones2 days ago

Gets His First Top-10 Finish Of The Season
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Bounces Back From Speeding Penalty
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Has A Strong Showing
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Hangs in For Fifth Place At Atlanta
Corey Lajoie3 days ago

Corey LaJoie Uses Course To Advantage On Sunday
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Ends Up With Another Top Five Result
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Brad Keselowski Noses Christopher Bell Out For Second
Joey Logano3 days ago

Goes From Pole To Win Sunday
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Starts 23rd
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Starts 24th At The AmBetter Health 400
AJ Allmendinger4 days ago

Eyes Another Strong Finish
NASCAR4 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Eyes Back-To-Back Superspeedway Wins
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

May Be Overlooked
Erik Jones4 days ago

Is A Value Play At Atlanta
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Seeks Better Results
Noah Gragson4 days ago

Might Surprise At Atlanta Motor Speedway
Austin Dillon4 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Atlanta
Ty Dillon4 days ago

Hoping To Keep Car Running At Atlanta
NASCAR4 days ago

J.J. Yeley Starts 34th Sunday At Ambetter Health 400
Kamaru Usman5 days ago

Seeking Second Title Run
Leon Edwards5 days ago

Looks To Defend Crown On Saturday
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF