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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/28/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves a tough 0-2 day on Sunday. Sundays are tough, but fortunately, I've been getting warmer since, and I'm looking to carry that momentum into this week. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Thursday, April 28, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 11-12-1, -4.23 units
- Sides: 8-6, +0.54 units
- Totals: 2-6-1, -4.78 units
- Notes:
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TEX +140
HOU: Justin Verlander | TEX: Martin Perez
I'll start today's slate off out in Texas, as the Astros and Rangers close up their series. Houston will be sending veteran and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to the hill this afternoon. He's been fantastic this season, coming into this one 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 3.13 xFIP. He gets a solid matchup against the Rangers, who rank 28th in both OPS (.568) and wRC+ (72). He's won five straight starts against the Rangers, albeit all back in 2019, but he's dominated Texas, and that should continue this today.
On the other side of the matchup, Texas will be sending southpaw Martin Perez to the mound. I may have undervalued how good Perez was before his last start against Oakland, and he is coming into this one with an ERA of 3.86 and an xFIP of 3.88. However, it's more likely that I simply overvalued the A's. The Astros haven't necessarily been lighting scoreboards up lately, but they are familiar with Perez and have had success against him.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Astros at -166 in this one, good for 62.4% implied odds. My model gives them a 66.2% chance of winning, so we're getting solid value here. There's a staunch value difference in starters here, too, as Verlander comes into this one graded 76.01 and Perez comes into this one graded at 52.31 The Astros have dominated in Texas as well, winning four of their last five games there. I'll be backing the Astros to close out this series with a win.
Pick: Houston Money Line (-166) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: STL -180
ARI: Humberto Castellanos | STL: Dakota Hudson
We'll head to St. Louis for the second game of the day, as the Diamondbacks take on the Cardinals to open up the series. Arizona will be sending Humberto Castellanos to the mound, who comes into this one 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He should show some regression to the mean though, with his xFIP sitting at 5.30. The Cardinals were shut down in the first two games of the Mets' series, but they bounced back yesterday in an emotional contest, logging ten runs.
On the other side of the field, Dakota Hudson takes the ball for St. Louis. Hudson comes into this one 1-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 4.51 xFIP. He struggled in his first two outings but bounced back Saturday against Cincinnati, where he threw 6.2 shutout innings. While Cincinnati's offense is the worst against right-handed pitching in the majors, Arizona isn't far behind. The DBacks rank 24th in OPS (.616) and 25th in wRC+ (81).
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cardinals at -180, good for 64.29% implied odds. While that line is pretty juiced, my model gives the Cardinals a 67.75% chance of winning, good for +3.46% EV. There's a decent margin between starters here as well, as Hudson comes into this one with a model rating of 63.5, while Castellanos comes into this one rated 43.12. The Cardinals have dominated this matchup in past years, and I expect that to continue today. Back the home favorite.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (-180) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more plays throughout the day!
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