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Andrew's in-depth Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft rookie breakdown of the Indiana QB. Read Mendoza's QB scouting report, strengths, weaknesses, and 2026 fantasy football outlook.
Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2026 class. I'm a college football coach with 11 years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players in this draft class, with detailed insight into future NFL standouts' strengths, weaknesses, and projections.
Scouting NFL Draft prospects is about projecting translatable traits. There is often overlap between translatable traits and college performance, but there's a reason many top college players are not considered legitimate professionals. For example, a wide receiver being able to get in and out of breaks efficiently will not change from college to pro. Conversely, an edge-rusher who got most of his sacks due to hustle or missed offensive line assignments may not have shown translatable traits on film.
The film clips in this series show each pro prospect's positive and negative traits. Reading this article will give you a more in-depth look into each player with actual in-game visual evidence. We will kick off our 2026 series with Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza.
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Fernando Mendoza Rookie Profile
Fernando Mendoza is a 22-year-old quarterback prospect who won the Heisman Trophy and national championship in his first year at Indiana. He began his collegiate career at Cal, where he threw for 30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in two years.
He broke out hugely at Indiana, completing 72% of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. He rushed for 473 yards and 11 touchdowns throughout his career.
Mendoza enjoyed a storybook rise as the best player on the most unlikely national champion of all time, an Indiana team that was dominant all year. He's the presumptive No. 1 overall pick, and for good reason. Let's dive into the film.
Mechanics, Accuracy, and Touch
Mendoza has the ideal size at 6-foot-5, 236 pounds. He is athletic enough to scramble when needed, and the Indiana coaching staff called QB run game in some huge moments last year. While he does not have a bazooka in terms of arm talent, his ability to place the ball with touch on all types of throws is his superpower.
Mendoza was a master at the back-shoulder throw. He threw touchdowns, converted first downs, hit them to the field, and hit them to the boundary, and his teammate, Elijah Sarratt, will likely be drafted high in large part due to Mendoza's execution of that particular throw.
In the clip below, you can see his placement on a field back-shoulder vertical. It shows his anticipation in addition to placement.
In the clip below, Mendoza shows off his placement, layering a ball over a cloud corner but under a safety in Cover 2. This is a 42-yard strike from the opposite hash.
Fernando Mendoza field hole shot vs cover 2 pic.twitter.com/YEzvwbVQQe
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@DraftWithAndrew) February 22, 2026
Mendoza doesn't deliver many moon balls, but he puts catchable touch on his downfield throws even without much arc.
In shotgun, "three-and-a-hitch" footwork refers to a three-step drop and one hitch up in the pocket. Mendoza's hitches include a second tiny hop, which is something that may need to be addressed to ensure timing at the NFL level. However, the ball consistently gets to its target.
Mendoza's weight transfer and calm feet are fantastic, and his lower body mechanics allow him to throw accurate dots despite not having amazing arm strength.
In the clip below, you can see Mendoza's efficient drop lead to a perfect pass deep down the middle.
Fernando Mendoza
Y Cross w/ an alert post from field 1. Play the boundary vs MOFC. Cover 6 here, Cooper is a stud, 3 and a hitch footwork, perfect timing, processing, and placement. pic.twitter.com/MGwziN8qIv
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@DraftWithAndrew) February 22, 2026
An overlooked strength of Mendoza's game is his ball-handling. Although he did not do much under center, projecting his traits in that regard seems like it could be an easy transition. Mendoza is efficient with his feet and keeps two hands on the ball when necessary. Some college QBs are reckless with the ball, and it impacts timing.
In the clip below, Mendoza works a throwback concept with some movement. He will be excellent in naked and movement plays at the next level. Keep in mind that Las Vegas Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak took advantage of Sam Darnold's ball-handling last season, crafting an efficient play-action and naked bootleg passing attack.
Fernando Mendoza
Klint Kubiak will love his footwork and ball-handling. Playactions and boots a big part of his offense.
Here you see the calm, efficient footwork and big-time arm on the deep shot pic.twitter.com/aFvQ6qJgY5
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@DraftWithAndrew) February 22, 2026
Mendoza obviously had a lot of success reading defenses and learned two different systems in college. He's a bright player with excellent intangibles by all accounts. His ability to process quickly and make mostly good decisions bodes well for his future.
In the clip below, Mendoza reads the mesh concept, climbs up in the pocket, and finds his receiver late in the progression.
Fernando Mendoza
When boundary 1’s mesh route was cut, not sure why he didn’t take the 1on1 to the field.
Shows ability climb the pocket and work the whole field, keeping his eyes up. The checkdown and OTB are covered, finds the mesh route settling later. pic.twitter.com/LlwQuwejT4
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@DraftWithAndrew) February 22, 2026
Mendoza is big, tough, smart, accurate, and athletic enough. The past season was magical, and he deserves to be the top pick in the draft without question.
Adversity Within the Play
Every quarterback misses throws. Every quarterback makes poor decisions at times. Mendoza was excellent at limiting mistakes, so it's not easy to poke holes in the film.
However, if there's one critique in his film as it relates to transitioning to the NFL, it's that when he's not sure what he's looking at, he drops his eyes and looks lost. While obviously that's true for most quarterbacks, some can make up for a lack of ideal circumstances with dynamic playmaking. Mendoza isn't necessarily the most creative out-of-structure playmaker.
In terms of scrambling to run, when Mendoza decides to tuck it and go, he's quite effective. However, I don't think he makes that decision quickly enough at times.
In the clip below, Mendoza's receivers are all covered. Instead of hitting the escape hatch up the middle where his left guard is about to block the spy, he drops his eyes and redirects slowly to his right, where he's caught. Things happen quicker than this in the NFL.
Mendoza made some mistakes when he didn't know what he was looking at. He checked a screen that didn't work in one instance, and in the clip below gets fooled by Ohio State's coverage.
Mendoza is clearly not anticipating Cover 2 to the boundary here. He is way too slow to move on. He could have escaped much quicker and abandoned the pass or simply worked to his three-man concept on the field.
At Indiana, Mendoza had the answers to the test. His entire team was incredibly well-coached. It simply won't be as clean in the NFL. NFL quarterbacks have to be able to make some second-reaction out-of-structure plays. Mendoza lacks the instinctive and athletic gifts of the best playmakers in the sport. He wins in structure.
NFL Player Outlook
Fernando Mendoza's film corroborates his terrific stats. He is accurate and throws with outstanding placement and touch. He is deserving of the first overall selection in this year's draft. Raiders fans should be excited.
Mendoza's transition to the pro game might not be seamless, as he will need to improve at reading defenses and making plays out of structure. However, his top-end traits translate, and his ability to process is that of a top NFL quarterback. I expect him to be a quality fantasy asset, especially given his ability to add some points with his legs.
If you want to read and watch some of my past film breakdowns, click the links below.
- Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III - RB, Michigan State
- Cam Ward - QB, Miami
- Jaxson Dart - QB, Mississippi
- Brock Bowers - TE, Georgia
- Jayden Daniels - QB, LSU
- Bijan Robinson - RB, Texas
- Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Alabama
- Ja'Marr Chase - WR, LSU
Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more draft content in the coming days.
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