August 12, 2017

Sammy Watkins was traded from Buffalo to Los Angeles. Steve Rebeiro analyzes the impact to his value for 2017 fantasy football drafts and beyond.

Former first-round pick Sammy Watkins has been traded to the Los Angeles Rams after three seasons in Buffalo. The talented wide receiver currently sits at an ADP of 33 and is the 15th receiver off the board.

Watkins was already a polarizing player on draft boards due to his inconsistency and injury history. This shocking preseason trade will only serve to further confuse fantasy owners who don't know how to rank him among his peers.

Let's examine exactly how this change of scenery will affect his fantasy value for 2017. For instant analysis on the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, check here.

Watkins in L.A. - Blessing in Disguise?

Watkins now joins the Rams newly installed offensive system as the number one option. Head Coach Sean McVay orchestrated a deadly passing attack during his time as offensive coordinator in Washington. Last season, Kirk Cousins finished third in the NFL in passing yards with 4,917 and threw 25 touchdowns. Both Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson finished with over 1,000 yards and three and four touchdowns respectively, slot receiver Jamison Crowder added 847 and seven touchdowns, and both Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis finished with over 500 yards at the tight end position.

In short, McVay airs out the ball, and Watkins should receive heavy targets. In Washington, Garcon received the most targets at 114, followed by Jackson (100), Crowder (99), and Reed (87). The Rams drafted rookie Gerald Everett to take over the Jordan Reed role, but he isn't quite ready yet to handle the volume and usage that Reed received in Washington. Tavon Austin will play as kind of a hybrid of the Crowder and Jackson roles. He'll be the slot receiver, but he's also going to serve as the big play target and is the most dangerous open field weapon the Rams have. Austin was targeted 106 times last year, and I'd expect him to receive somewhere between 90-100 this season.

The rest of the major targets will be shared by Watkins and Robert Woods, his former teammate in Buffalo. When Watkins hit a career high in targets as a rookie with 128, Woods was right behind him with 106. When they appeared together for the final four games of the 2016 season, Watkins out-targeted him 29 to 16. The Rams didn't trade two valuable assets for a guy they don't plan on feeding. I'd anticipate Watkins receives around 130 targets if healthy all season, while Woods will probably drop into the 80 range.

Watkins is going to be the biggest threat in the passing game, and if he's healthy the bigger questions surround the man throwing him the ball. 2016 number one overall draft pick Jared Goff started seven games in a hopeless offensive system. Neither Goff nor the rest of the Rams offense did much of anything positive. The 2016 season is really just a wash for Goff's prospects, and 2017 is the season where he should show us what he's really capable of... which, as of now, is unknown.

The Rams traded up for him for a reason. Sean McVay chose this situation for a reason. People believe in Jared Goff. It's his time to validate their beliefs when he steps onto the field this season. Having Sammy Watkins around certainly increases Jared Goff's fantasy value, but until we see him show us that he can be a solid starter in this league, it's only a negative for Watkins value.

But despite all of these new variables, the biggest concern with drafting Sammy Watkins has nothing to do with his situation. It has to do with his health. Watkins was bothered by an ankle injury in 2015 and was really bothered by a foot injury that placed him on the IR for much of the 2016 season. When he's healthy, he's a beast, and even with the ankle injury and missing games he improved his receiving yards and touchdowns from 2014 to 2015. However, the 2016 season and the recurring foot injury he suffered throughout the season is a major red flag on Watkins' draft stock.

Conclusion

If you believed in Sammy Watkins enough to take him before the trade, you should still believe in him now. Yes, Watkins is joining a team who's been historically bad at the receiver position over the past 10 years and has an unproven quarterback throwing him the ball. But Sean McVay isn't Jeff Fisher. He's a young offensive genius who turned Kirk Cousins from a backup into a Pro Bowler. If anyone is going to turn this offense around it's him, and Sammy Watkins now joins Goff and Todd Gurley as the three major players who will make the turnaround possible on the field.

His ADP is likely going to drop thanks to the negative stigma surrounding the Rams offense over recent years and the unfair bust label many have already given Jared Goff. I don't believe his ADP should drop, as his situation is promising and the biggest concern with Watkins hasn't changed because of this trade. He was a high-risk, high-reward pick in the third round. If he falls to the fourth or even the fifth round of your draft, the risk won't be as high, but the reward may be even higher in his new role.

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