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Robert deciphers the fantasy football tight end landscape to identify breakouts and to help avoid players who are fool's gold for Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season. Taking a deep dive into the advanced statistics can help get out in front of trends.
The tight end position may actually be getting some reinforcements over the second half of the season. We'll talk about Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride and their breakout potential. While on the surface it may look as though Michael Mayer's role moved backward, a lot of that can be explained by the blowout nature of their Week 7 loss to the Bears. Stay the course. While he shouldn't be started right now, fantasy managers should continue to stash him on their bench.
Another tight end whose value we could see increase exponentially is Chigoziem Okonkwo. The trade rumors are starting to swirl and it's been mentioned that DeAndre Hopkins is a trade candidate. If Hopkins is sent out of town, Okonkwo could become Tennessee's No. 1 or No. 2 option in the Titans' offense and that volume would be huge for his fantasy football value. That's something to keep an eye on.
We could also be witnessing Darren Waller finally reaching the potential we saw for him. He's been inside or right around the top five among tight ends in targets, receptions, and yards, but had not yet found the end zone until last week. If the Giants' offense can keep (kind of) clicking, that would be huge for Waller's rest-of-season outlook.
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Weeks 1-7 Statistical Review
With receivers, we can often just look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With the tight end, that’s not quite as effective because with such small numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.
Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which not only includes raw targets and target share but also snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on six weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.
| Player | Snap Share | Route Participation | Routes Run | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Red Zone Targets |
| Sam LaPorta | 81.0% | 78% | 214 | 19.3% | 7.0 | 4 |
| Kyle Pitts | 64.4% | 78% | 207 | 18.1% | 6.3 | 4 |
| Hayden Hurst | 56.7% | 60% | 161 | 9.5% | 3.6 | 5 |
| Dalton Schultz | 64.7% | 71% | 171 | 16.4% | 5.6 | 7 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 68.1% | 69% | 116 | 7.8% | 2.7 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 77.0% | 82% | 201 | 14.7% | 4.4 | 3 |
| Evan Engram | 77.2% | 86% | 243 | 21.2% | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 52.7% | 62% | 155 | 12.6% | 4.3 | 5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 63.2% | 75% | 88 | 11.7% | 4.0 | 1 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 71.8% | 72% | 142 | 15.8% | 4.3 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz | 66.1% | 73% | 188 | 18.5% | 6.5 | 6 |
| Logan Thomas | 70.5% | 74% | 170 | 13.5% | 5.2 | 4 |
| George Kittle | 88.1% | 87% | 191 | 15.5% | 4.1 | 4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 63.1% | 74% | 70 | 10.2% | 3.2 | 4 |
| Cade Otton | 96.4% | 83% | 191 | 11.0% | 3.4 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 83.1% | 81% | 242 | 20.8% | 7.8 | 6 |
| Luke Musgrave | 70.2% | 77% | 136 | 14.5% | 4.6 | 3 |
| Cole Kmet | 83.2% | 75% | 189 | 14.9% | 5.3 | 7 |
| Durham Smythe | 77.4% | 79% | 171 | 7.2% | 2.6 | 3 |
| Gerald Everett | 60.9% | 51% | 108 | 10.7% | 3.8 | 3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 93.2% | 86% | 243 | 17.3% | 6.0 | 6 |
| Hunter Henry | 79.2% | 71% | 192 | 12.5% | 4.6 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 94.8% | 88% | 250 | 13.5% | 5.3 | 3 |
| Darren Waller | 84.7% | 85% | 218 | 21.4% | 6.8 | 3 |
| Jake Ferguson | 71.1% | 65% | 143 | 15.1% | 4.8 | 11 |
| Tyler Conklin | 72.1% | 69% | 147 | 14.6% | 4.5 | 2 |
| Dawson Knox | 68.9% | 64% | 176 | 11.3% | 4.0 | 5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 61.5% | 66% | 159 | 12.8% | 3.8 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 82.0% | 88% | 192 | 22.4% | 6.8 | 5 |
| Adam Trautman | 81.8% | 73% | 184 | 8.4% | 2.6 | 6 |
| Mike Gesicki | 57.3% | 53% | 145 | 8.9% | 3.3 | 2 |
| Michael Mayer | 51.5% | 44% | 115 | 6.3% | 1.8 | 2 |
| Noah Fant | 49.4% | 44% | 94 | 6.3% | 2.4 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 42.9% | 35% | 90 | 9.0% | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 60.3% | 63% | 166 | 14.3% | 5.3 | 4 |
Injury Shakeup
The tight end position received two big injury announcements this week and we'll start with the one in Buffalo. The team announced Dawson Knox would have wrist surgery, but there's no timetable for his return yet. He's already been ruled out for the team's Thursday Week 8 game this week. That means that rookie Dalton Kincaid will become a full-time player. Kincaid and Knox's route participation rates are very similar through eight weeks, both hovering around 65%. Both players have a snap share higher than 60% as well. The Bills have called this grouping "11.5-personnel" because while Kincaid is technically a tight end, he's often lined up in the slot. In fact, just 21% of his routes have been from a traditional, in-line alignment.
It's unknown how this will affect the team's personnel utilization. It's possible this means that Khalil Shakir gets on the field more as the slot receiver. Shakir would essentially replace Kincaid with Kincaid replacing Knox. The other option is Quintin Morris, the team's third-string tight end, replacing Knox and Kincaid staying in his typical role as the team's slot receiver. However, Morris was an estimated DNP on Monday and Tuesday, so this outcome seems less and less likely. Fantasy managers should expect Kincaid to operate as a more traditional tight end, as Knox has. This means we'll have to take the good with the bad, but don't worry, ultimately the good will outweigh the bad.
While we'd prefer Kincaid in his traditional slot receiver role, Kincaid's snap share should go way up. It shouldn't be surprising if his snap share goes from 61.5% to 85-90%. That is absolutely huge. Along with that, his route participation should climb exponentially. While he's had a route rate of around 66% this season, that should also climb from 85-90%. We cannot underestimate just how important that is. Even though he'll be operating as a traditional tight end, the increase in snap share and overall routes will more than make up for it. Kincaid should be viewed as a locked-in top-12 tight end for as long as Knox is out and he has a great matchup to kick off the party.
Tampa Bay's opponent in-line TE target rate is the second-highest in the NFL, per @FantasyPtsData. The Bucs also have a high opponent slot target (32%).
Such an awesome first matchup for Dalton Kincaid in an expanded role 🚀🚀🚀 pic.twitter.com/dZqY6W2adH
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 26, 2023
He had a breakout game in Week 7 where he racked up eight targets and caught all of them for 75 yards. He set career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and PFF grade (80.1). Prior to last week, he had not scored above 67. One area we'd still like to see an improvement in is his average depth of target. This sits at just 4.3 yards for the season and he doesn't have a single week above 7.0. With such short targets, his upside is tied to volume. Ideally, the team would utilize Kincaid further down the field. That said, as long as he gets 85% of the routes on this offense with quarterback Josh Allen, he absolutely needs to be in lineups.
The other big injury news came out of Arizona where the Cardinals opted to put Zach Ertz on IR. Over the past two weeks, fantasy managers have started to see a change in how Arizona was utilizing Ertz and Trey McBride. McBride's role was beginning to grow, while Ertz started to see his former role begin to diminish. With Ertz now on IR, McBride will become the team's primary No. 1 tight end.
Only three teams (KC, MIN, ATL - ironic, I know) have thrown to the tight end more than the Cardinals. Buy Trey McBride https://t.co/m0RmqOI60U
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) October 24, 2023
There's a lot to like from McBride this season, especially in the last two weeks. While his snap share dipped from Week 6 to Week 7, his route participation did go up. As much as we would've liked to have seen that number go up by more than it did, it was nice to see his target share continue to increase. Based on the tweet above, which talked about how vital the tight end position has been for the Arizona offense, the upside is clear and obvious. You combine how much Arizona has utilized the tight end position and McBride's 18.2% target share in Week 7 and fantasy managers have a potential second-half breakout prospect.
| Trey McBride | |||||
| Time Frame | Snap Share | Route Participation | Routes Run Per Game | Target Share | Targets Per Game |
| Weeks 1-5 | 39% | 29% | 10.0 | 6.4% | 2.0 |
| Week 6 | 58% | 46% | 21.0 | 12.2% | 5.0 |
| Week 7 | 53% | 50% | 19.0 | 18.2% | 6.0 |
All the arrows were already pointing up with regard to his utilization. For the season, McBride has a 23.9% target per route run, which ranks third among tight ends. He also is third in yards per route run at 1.93. He's eighth in yards per target at 8.1 and ninth in yards per reception at 11.3. That's something to get excited about! Imagine that kind of efficiency, but now put him in a full-time role. It gets even better! Imagine that kind of efficiency, give him a full-time role, but now he has Kyler Murray at quarterback. He has top-12 upside for the rest of the season.
This Old Dog Has Learned Some New Tricks
In last week's article, I talked about Taysom Hill and how he was utilized--in Week 6--like he had never, ever been used before. I got plenty of responses such as, "Same old Taysom Hill" or "Oh, it's that time of the season again when fantasy analysts talk up Taysom Hill," but folks, he has never been utilized in the manner in which he's been the last two weeks. He ran more routes, had more receptions, and had more receiving yards in Weeks 6-7 than he had in the entire 2022 season, as well as the entire 2021 season, and the 2020 season. His 13 targets he had in Weeks 6-7 were more than he had in 2021 and 2020 and tied for his 2022 total.
| Taysom Hill | |||||||
| Time Frame | Snap Share | Route Participation | Routes Run Per Game | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game |
Receiving Yards Per Game
|
| Weeks 6-7 | 59% | 69% | 39.0 | 12.4% | 6.50 | 5.50 | 49.5 |
| 2022 | 33% | 23% | 6.8 | 2.9% | 0.81 | 0.56 | 4.8 |
| 2021 | 56% | 14% | 4.3 | 1.7% | 0.50 | 0.33 | 4.3 |
| 2020 | 44% | 12% | 4.1 | 2.2% | 0.75 | 0.50 | 6.1 |
His Week 6-7 per game averages would put him on pace for 111 targets, 94 receptions, and 842 receiving yards. A two-game sample certainly carries plenty of limitations and no one should be expecting Hill to continue his two-game pace, but that level of upside should be enticing for fantasy managers. Even if he finishes with "just" 50 catches and 600 receiving yards, that's huge. Even 40 catches for 500 yards is huge because, over the past three years, he's averaged 469 rushing yards and 6.5 touchdowns.
Juwan Johnson is set to return to action this weekend, so this will be a huge test for Hill and his rest of the season value. However, it should be noted Johnson played in three games this season before getting hurt and had just 12 targets, seven yards, and 61 receiving yards. That means Hill had more targets, receptions, and yards in two games in a role he's never really played before than Johnson had in three, all while playing a position he's always played. Are we so sure Johnson is getting his full-time role back? Are we so sure Hill hasn't earned a bigger role? Not only that, but we need to appreciate what Hill does to a defense. When he is on the field, a defense needs to plan and consider how he might be used. Is he passing? Running? Now, he might even be catching the ball. That puts a lot of pressure on a defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Hill continues to be utilized fairly heavily in this offense.
The End of George Kittle
His days as an elite fantasy football tight end are officially over. We started to see signs of this in the second half of last season when the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey. Unfortunately, it wasn’t made super obvious due to Deebo Samuel missing three games during that stretch and an insanely high touchdown rate for Kittle, which helped hide most of the problems.
Last year, when CMC, Deebo, Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk were all on the field, Kittle’s target share was just 13.7%. The other three players all had a target share north of 21%. Kittle was the odd man out.
Fast forward to Week 8 of the 2023 season and that still holds true. There have been five games this season with all four players active. Kittle has 16 targets in those five games total for a target share of just 12.6%. In the other two games where Aiyuk and Samuel were inactive, Kittle had 16 targets alone with a target share of 23.8%. There are officially too many mouths to feed and Kittle is the runt of the litter.
This becomes an ever bigger problem looking at the overall team volume. San Francisco is attempting just 27.7 passes per game. This ranks 31st in the league. While other tight ends may have a 12-14% target share, theirs are likely to go a lot further because their team has more passing volume. For Kittle, the reality is that Aiyuk, Samuel, and CMC are the first three primary options in a low-volume passing attack.
In the five games where all four have been active, he’s averaged 3.2 targets, 2.2 receptions, and 25.2 yards per game. In the other two games where Aiyuk and Deebo were inactive, Kittle averaged 8.0 targets, 6.0 receptions, and 84.0 yards per game. When one of the big-three is inactive, he’s a must start. When they’re all healthy, Kittle is nothing more than a “praying for a touchdown” kind-of play. That’s a long fall from the perch he previously sat upon.
Buy Low Candidate
Last week I touched on Darren Waller’s elite utilization and that his half-PPR PPG average wasn’t where folks wanted it to be largely because of bad touchdown luck. Then we got one! So we’ll see if we can test our luck here again.
Evan Engram is another tight end who just needs a touchdown. Actually, he could do with some red zone targets first. It’s astonishing that through seven games and despite averaging over seven targets per game, he has yet to register a single red zone target. Some could argue that’s a red flag, but I still think he’s a good buy low candidate.
He’s currently TE9 in half-PPR PPG. Dalton Schultz is outscoring him. Cole Kmet and Logan Thomas are both within half a point of his PPG average. However, Engram’s utilization (outside of the red zone) aligns more closely with T.J. Hockenson and has been even better than rookie phenom, Sam LaPorta.
Engram ranks third in targets, third in receptions, and fifth in yards. The bad luck in the touchdown department doesn’t just fall on Engram. It falls on the entire Jacksonville offense. 60% of all offensive touchdowns this season have been scored via the pass. Jacksonville sits at 47%, 13 percentage points behind league-average. It isn’t just Engram.
Last season, Lawrence had a 4.3% touchdown rate, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Lawrence was learning a brand new offense with new head coach, Doug Pederson. He was working with brand new receivers in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. There needed to be an acclimation period and he had one. From Weeks 1-9, Lawrence’s touchdown rate was 3.6%. From Weeks 10-18, once he was more comfortable in the new offense and more familiar with his new teammates, his touchdown rate jumped to 5.0%. Through seven games in 2023, his touchdown rate sits at 3.3%.
That’s lower than his rate from Weeks 1-9 of last season. Considering these numbers, it shouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Jacksonville passing offense have a big second-half. Jones has missed a few games and they’re working in a fairly big, new addition in Calvin Ridley. If the passing game does start finding the end zone at a higher rate than it has, it stands to reason that Engram will be a beneficiary of that. He’s currently just a backend TE1 on a PPG perspective, but with a few touchdowns, he could be a top-five tight end. That’s how fantasy managers should be valuing him, which makes him an attractive buy low target.
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