Fantasy Football Tight End Preparation for Week 10

Rob looks for tight end rankings sleepers for fantasy football Week 10 (2023). He identifies tight end breakouts and avoids, diving into advanced statistics.

Tight ends are popping off left and right! First, it started off with Sam LaPorta. It wasn't long after that until Dalton Schultz started breaking out with rookie sensation, C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Around that time, Trey McBride exploded onto the scene with Zach Ertz going on IR. Now, it's Dalton Kincaid's turn. We certainly can't forget about Taysom Hill in all of this either. All of a sudden, the tight end position is looking awfully strong.

Going into Week 10, you might be surprised to see that I have two rookie tight ends in the No. 1 and No. 2 spots for the week. That said, fantasy managers have lost two weekly starters in Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller. Waller is currently on IR and it's possible Goedert is going to end up there as well. While many will express disappointment in Waller's 2023 season, a lot of that has to do with bad touchdown luck. Despite missing all of last week and most of the week before, Waller is still eighth in total targets, ninth in total receptions, and tenth in total yards among tight ends. Not too bad considering the missed games and the ineptitude of the Giants' quarterback play and offense in general.

Now entering Week 10, there isn't a ton of movement in terms of player utilization. At this point of the season, players are who they are for the most part. Certainly, we're seeing an expanded role for Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid. Let's start breaking down the first nine weeks, identify some of the changes we're seeing at the tight end position, and eventually, finish with my weekly tight end rankings.

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Weeks 1-9 Statistical Review

With receivers, we can often look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With tight end, that’s not quite as effective because with smaller numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.

Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which includes raw targets, target share, snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on nine weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.

Dalton Kincaid - Another Top-5 Rookie Tight End

Don't look now, but Kincaid is absolutely busting out. From Weeks 7-9, Kincaid is averaging 12.5 half-PPR PPG. Over the course of the season, this would rank as the TE3 behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Over these last three weeks, Kincaid has recorded at least seven targets, five receptions, and 65 yards in each game. His per-game averages from the last three weeks would result in 147 targets, 129 receptions, and 1,251 yards. Now, of course, he's not going to produce at that level the rest of the season, but it does put into perspective just how insanely good his stretch has been.

From the table above, you can see just how much more productive Kincaid has been recently. His target per route run rate has increased by almost 10 percent and his target share has gone up by 11 percent. A big reason for the change has been due to his opportunity. From Weeks 1-6, his route participation was at just 66 percent. From Weeks 7-9, that has risen to 82 percent. This can directly be tied back to fellow tight end, Dawson Knox going on IR with a wrist injury. He's eligible to return in Week 12, so Kincaid will have two more weeks to state his case for No. 1 tight end duties in Buffalo's offense. At this point, with how much Buffalo is lacking offensive play-makers behind superstar Stefon Diggs, it's hard to imagine Kincaid being put back in the bottle.

If anyone in your league rosters Kincaid and can be talked into "selling high" with the eventual return of Knox, I would pay the price. I believe Kincaid has top-five potential for the rest of the season and can be viewed as an elite option at the position. Part of the appeal to Kincaid was that Buffalo lacked a consistent No. 2 option in the passing game and that much is still true. We know Diggs is going to be the No. 1 every week, but Kincaid could, on any given week, be the No. 2 ahead of Gabriel Davis. In Buffalo's pass-heavy system, this has major upside. Even if he's the No. 3 option behind Davis on whatever week, the high volume will give him plenty of opportunity to make an impact.

Don't Shy Away From Taysom Hill

Yes, the number of routes Hill is running and the number of targets he's earned has decreased since Juwan Johnson returned. In Weeks 6-7, his route participation rate was 69 percent, and in Weeks 8-9, it dropped to 37 percent. Despite this, he still managed to earn five targets and catch four of them for 13 yards and a touchdown in Week 9. More importantly, however, over the past two weeks, he's averaging 10 carries and 57.5 rushing yards per game. It's clear that the coaches in New Orleans want to keep Hill involved. In fact, this past weekend Hill actually finished with more carries and rushing yards than Alvin Kamara. On top of earning five targets and getting 11 carries this past weekend, he also completed his lone pass attempt for a touchdown. He literally can do it all.

Taysom Hill is THRIVING despite the return of Jamaal Williams and Juwan Johnson.

Last two games:

Fantasy points: 22.5, 20.6
Pass + Rush + Targets = 14.5 per game 👀

Rush attempts: 9, 11
Rush atts inside five-yard line: 2, 1 👀
Routes: 12, 13
Targets: 1, 5
Pass attempts: 2, 1

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 8, 2023

Over the past two weeks, despite Johnson returning to the lineup, Hill has continued to score a ton of fantasy points. While it's clear the lack of a true receiving role could lead to some poor weekly outputs, his role inside the red zone and his jack-of-all-trades ability in the New Orleans offense is going to give him high weekly upside.

With some tight ends, we'd prefer their respective team to be in a shoot-out or trailing on the scoreboard, thus increasing the team's passing volume. With Hill, however, we should feel more confident starting him in games where the Saints are favored. This will likely increase his potential for a rushing touchdown. His Week 10 matchup is just that kind of matchup. The Saints will face off against the Vikings, who are struggling with significant injuries on the offensive side of the ball. He's a top-10 play for me this weekend.

The Ups and Downs of Michael Mayer

Mayer's Week 6 performance of six targets, five receptions, and 75 yards seems like a lifetime ago. He had a 66.6 percent route participation rate that week, which was a significant upgrade from his Weeks 1-5 rate of just 37 percent. The arrow appeared to be pointing upwards. However, since that game, very little has gone to plan for Mayer and his fantasy managers. Most were expecting his role would only expand from there. Certainly, that would have made sense given the production and effectiveness he displayed.

Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. The very next week, his route participation dropped down to 54.3 percent. There was some optimism that this was due to the Raiders being blown out and several starters sitting in the fourth quarter. That seemed to be proven when his route participation climbed back up to 82 percent in Week 8. After that game, the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels and put Antonio Pierce in place as their interim head coach.

In Week 9, his route participation dropped down to 60 percent. That was especially concerning considering the change in coaching staff. Luckily, his snap share remained incredibly high. In Weeks 8 and 9, he played over 91 percent of the snaps. However, Austin Hooper cut into his total number of routes run this past weekend. He has just eight targets, five receptions, and 43 yards in the past three weeks combined. In Week 9, he finished with just two targets, two receptions, and 11 yards. It's clear that Mayer's role may not be consistent week to week. While fantasy managers may be able to count on Mayer playing a high number of snaps, there's no guarantee or assurance he's going to be involved in the passing game and running routes.

Due to this unknown, Mayer can be cut if need be. His talent profile of being a high second-round pick and his insane collegiate production give him perceived upside, but until his role changes, there's virtually no chance he hits that ceiling. The quarterback change to rookie Aidan O'Connell adds another unfortunate wrinkle to his fantasy football value. Not to mention, he's competing for targets with one elite receiver in Davante Adams and another very good one in Jakobi Meyers. The reality is, that a rookie quarterback is not going to support three fantasy-relevant pass-catchers, especially one whose route participation rate can fluctuate so much from week to week.

Chargers Tight End Duo from Week 9 Without Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer

Several fantasy managers ended up streaming Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. this past weekend with receivers, Williams and Palmer, both being on IR. Rookie receiver, Quentin Johnston has been a massive disappointment thus far, which has left Justin Herbert having just one dependable pass-catcher, Keenan Allen. In that sense, there seemed to be plenty of opportunity for Everett and/or Parham to make an impact. In theory, the thought process wasn't wrong, but the results most certainly were bad.

It wasn't just that Everett and Parham combined for four targets, two receptions, and 18 yards. Parham had two targets but was otherwise skunked. All of those receptions and yards went to Everett. The production could be excused due to a tough matchup and because sometimes tight ends flop. It's the nature of the position. Fantasy managers could forgive that. The bigger problem was the role and opportunity that both players received.

Neither player had a route participation rate over 60 percent. Neither player had a target share over 8.0 percent either. Neither player played more than 60 percent of the snaps. If there was any hope that the injuries at receiver would result in a bigger role for these two tight ends, it didn't play out that way in Week 9. Both of these players, due to last week's utilization, are not trustable in Week 10, despite it being a positive matchup with the Detroit Lions. It's expected to be a shoot-out and has one of the highest over/under's of this week's games and the Lions are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. That's the good news and it would have made either player a worthy start if their roles weren't so bad against the Jets. Until we see a change in how this offense is going to utilize their tight ends, both players can remain on the waiver wire.

For What It's Worth...

With Darren Waller on IR, the assumption was that second-year tight end, Daniel Bellinger, would walk into his previously held role. Bellinger showed some potential last year as a rookie, finishing with 35 targets, 30 receptions, 268 yards, and two touchdowns in 12 games. As far as rookie tight ends go, it wasn't bad. Last year, however, the Giants' offense was at least capable. Daniel Jones was playing safe, smart, and solid football. The Giants' offense finished roughly middle of the pack, ranking 15th in total yards and 18th in points. Right now, Jones is on IR and done for the year. Backup Tyrod Taylor is currently on IR and head coach Brian Daboll was uncertain if he'll return this year. Not only that, but the Giants' offense is a mess. They're 32nd in both yards and points. However, at least Bellinger has a stranglehold on a very good tight end role.

Bellinger had a fantastic role in Week 9. His snap share and his route participation were fantastic. The problem - and it's a big one - is going to come from the quarterback play and the general ineffectiveness of the team's offense. Right now, Bellinger isn't anything more than a desperation shot in the dark. Fantasy managers will need to decide, if they're in that spot, if they want someone like Bellinger who is playing a lot and running a lot of routes, or someone like Gerald Everett who has a much better chance at falling into the end zone. To be clear, neither option is good.

A Third Buccaneer Emerging?

Cade Otton put together a pretty solid rookie season. He finished with 65 targets, 42 receptions, 391 yards, and two touchdowns as a third-round rookie. He was in a very opportunistic situation as Tampa, with Tom Brady at quarterback, was the league's most pass-heavy team in the NFL by a long shot. That volume allowed him to earn 65 targets despite just a 9.5% target share. Otton didn't do anything spectacular as a rookie. There weren't any stats that stood out. For the most part, the same has been true this season. His 0.92-yard-per-route run average is actually down from his 0.95 mark as a rookie and both marks finished outside the top 25. However, the past three weeks Otton has been much better.

You can see from the table above that Otton has been getting much more involved in the offense. His target per route run rate and his target share have both increased by almost eight percent. Unfortunately, that doesn't correlate with a change in his utilization. His snap share and route participation rate are both elite and are in the top five among tight ends. I'd be more optimistic that this recent hot streak was here to stay if it also corresponded with a change in his snap share or route participation rate. At least then we could point to a reason for the increased production and volume. Since we don't have that, we can't easily explain the increased production we've seen in the last three weeks other than, sometimes hot streaks happen.

Therefore, we should be very skeptical of it. Tampa Bay ranks about the middle of the pack in most passing statistics. They're 14th in pass attempts, 15th in passing yards, and 12th in passing touchdowns. When we're looking for a starting tight end in fantasy football, we're looking for a 75% or higher route participation rate and a clear pathway to being the No. 2 target in their respective offense. If they're going to get by as a third option, they need elite passing volume and efficiency, and Tampa Bay doesn't offer that. With star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton is always going to be the third wheel and even getting locked in as the team's No. 3 option is no guarantee. Running back Rachaad White is 10th in targets and second in receptions among running backs this season. In fact, despite Otton's recent surge he has just four more targets than White, but still trails White in both receptions and yards.

While he's averaging 11.2 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 7-9, he still shouldn't be viewed as anything more than a potential streamer if he has a good matchup. All this recent three-week streak really did is move him from completely unusable in all situations to being a potential streamer in a good matchup. Fantasy managers should be skeptical about using him this weekend with a very tough matchup against the Titans. They've allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing tight ends this season.

Week 10 Tight End Rankings

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