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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 5 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week was a world of extremes. There were some absolutely massive performances and then some unexpected goose eggs. It really sways fantasy matchups when the discrepancy is so large. Once again, the Jacksonville Jaguars are slated to play in London, so make sure your lineup is ready to go before kickoff on Sunday morning at 9:30 AM EST. We also officially have bye weeks starting, which means lower-ranked players move up and players you would normally sit might need to be in your lineup. This week we've got the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a bye.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice there are players that are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included as part of the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you came out on the right side of the spike performances and knocked off your opponent. Regardless of which way the pendulum swung, it's a new week with another shot at victory. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Matchups Analysis - 9:30 AM ET London Game
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -5.5
Implied Total: Jaguars (21.5) vs. Bills (27)
Pace: Jaguars (17th) vs. Bills (32nd)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -15.6% Pass (16h), -14.9% Rush (22nd)
Bills Off. DVOA: 59.0% Pass (3rd), 2.0% Rush (8th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 5.3% Pass (15th), -21.2% Rush (7th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -34.6% Pass (2nd), -16.2% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Buffalo made a statement against Miami, led by the masterful outing by Allen. Whether from an NFL perspective or a fantasy perspective, he was the QB1. While five total touchdowns are a bit lofty, finishing as the QB1 against the Jaguars is a possible outcome.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Typically a target hog, Diggs decided to share the wealth this week. Allen threw a pass to nine different players. However, the production went almost entirely to Diggs, who went nuclear for 120 yards and a hat trick of touchdowns. He and Allen are currently the best stack for fantasy. Gabe Davis found pay dirt early in this one before quieting down. He has scored in three straight games with 14 targets over that span. It's not an ideal matchup because the Bills should dominate, but with bye weeks starting, he's an upside flex play.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
Cook broke the trend this week, carrying the ball three consecutive times from inside the 10-yard line, the last of which was a one-yard trot into the end zone. It's a great sign for his usage. If he can add that element to his role as the lead back, his fantasy stock will soar. Jacksonville's run defense has improved, but they just gave up 100-plus yards to Bijan Robinson last week. Plus the Bills are likely to be leading much of the game.
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
As mentioned in the introduction, the Jaguars are playing host in London yet again. This time it's the Bills traveling overseas, which is bad news for Lawrence and Co. They were mediocre against Atlanta, but it didn't matter because the Falcons can't pass the ball. They scored one offensive touchdown and totaled 300 yards of offense. There's no reason to trust him against Buffalo.
Other Matchups:
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
The fireworks ended prematurely because Miami didn't hold up their end of the bargain. It was 31-14 at halftime, allowing the Bills to focus on their run game. 25 passing attempts from Allen ties his lowest mark from all of 2022, and it's the lowest in 2023. The fact that Kincaid earned a 20% target share is a positive takeaway. He remains in the top 12.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Engram kept his eight-target streak alive, hauling in seven catches for 59 yards. At the tight end position, he's about as reliable as they come. It's not an ideal matchup, but he's too good to push outside the top 10.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
Similar story here. The Bills have been pretty stout on the majority of their opponent's carries, but they often give up a chunk play to explosive backs. Etienne fits that description well with two breakaway runs (15-plus yards) this year after ripping off 18 of them last season, which was the fourth-most. It's also beneficial that he's being utilized as a receiver, averaging over three receptions per contest. He remains in the top 20.
Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)
Kirk gets the nod here as the presumptive alpha receiver. If you ignore his first game, he's averaged almost eight receptions for 81 yards, picking up right where he left off in 2022. He's a top-24 volume-based receiver. Calvin Ridley confirmed our priors in Week 1 but has since disappeared. His target share and production have steadily decreased each week, with the exception of a touchdown against Atlanta. Outside of that 30-yard connection, he caught his only other target for eight yards. The Bills did lose Tre'Davious White for the season, but Ridley is still hard to trust as more than a top-36 option with a low floor.
UPDATE: Jones is officially active. It lowers the floor for Kirk and Ridley, who could see fewer snaps and targets. Jones is best left on the bench against the Bills.
Injuries:
Zay Jones (knee)
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Implied Total: Texans (20) vs. Falcons (21.5)
Pace: Texans (5th) vs. Falcons (10th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 38.6% Pass (5th), -30.7% Rush (30th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -25.3% Pass (31st), 1.7% Rush (10th)
Texans Def. DVOA: -9.1% Pass (7th), 5.1% Rush (28th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 25.3% Pass (27th), -17.2% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
This one's pretty simple. The Texans made Najee Harris look good on the ground last week, and now they face Robinson, who has been insanely efficient with his touches. Enough said.
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
Stroud's completion percentage wasn't where you'd like it to be, but he made the most of his 16 completions against Pittsburgh, passing for 306 yards and two touchdowns. He's now averaging 303 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game through four weeks. They're also 18th in pass rate over expectation, signaling a shift in philosophy from 2022. The Falcons are 27th in pass defense DVOA, setting Stroud up as a borderline top-12 QB.
Texans WRs
Crowning Tank Dell as the No. 1 may have been preemptive as Nico Collins stole the show against the Steelers. He consistently found openings in their secondary for chunk plays, averaging 24 yards per catch. Aside from Week 3, Collins has been the better player. It's fair to wonder how often both can succeed simultaneously with other players like Robert Woods still taking away volume, but their arrow is pointing up just like Stroud. They're both top-36 receivers against Atlanta, whose secondary is much improved, with Collins as the clear favorite.
Matchups We Hate:
Falcons Passing Attack
Desmond Ridder getting benched is about as guaranteed as taxes. It's a matter of when not if. Only eight signal-callers have worse quarterback ratings than Ridder, and two of them were rookies making their debut in Week 4. In the meantime, the Drake London scoring in London narrative prevailed as he found the end zone, while Jonnu Smith is now the team's TE1. For what it's worth, Smith is the TE10 on the season. Smith plays a more traditional tight end role while Kyle Pitts acts as a slot receiver, an area Ridder struggles to locate. Pitts is also still working his way back to full health. When a run-first offense faces an exploitable rush defense, there's even less reason to pass the ball. London, Smith, and Pitts are touchdown-or-bust options.
Other Matchups:
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU)
Houston is flipping the script, literally. In their past two contests, they've spent 16 minutes and 37 seconds in a neutral game script, 103 minutes and 23 seconds leading, and zero minutes trailing. The result for Pierce has been a combined 38 rushing attempts for 112 yards and a touchdown. Those aren't top-15 numbers, but they're a vast improvement from where he was after Week 2. There's still a risk of ceding work to Devin Singletary and to a lesser extent, Mike Boone, but he's back on the radar as a top-24 back with scoring potential given the bye weeks.
Injuries:
Noah Brown (groin)
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -9.5
Implied Total: Panthers (17.25) vs. Lions (26.75)
Pace: Panthers (9th) vs. Lions (29th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -6.2% Pass (22nd), -23.4% Rush (26th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 40.3% Pass (4th), 8.3% Rush (6th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 0.9% Pass (11th), 21.7% Rush (32nd)
Lions Def. DVOA: -5.5% Pass (8th), -31.0% Rush (4th)
Matchups We Love:
David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Coming off an injury in a game he was questionable to play, Montgomery shocked the world with a huge day. He manhandled a familiar foe with 32 carries for 121 yards and three scores. He also added two receptions for 20 yards as the cherry on top. Detroit's offensive line is imposing their will while their defense plays complementary football. The Panthers are a dream matchup for Montgomery.
We move to the more pertinent question, which is what's the value of Jahmyr Gibbs? He averaged five yards per carry on his eight rushing attempts and hauled in four passes for 11 yards. It's a long way from the bar many of us set for him when they drafted him No. 12 overall, but the talent remains evident. He projects to see eight to 12 touches each week as the preferred receiving back for a high-scoring offense that wants to pound the rock. It's going to keep him in play as a flex option because of the workload. The primary issue is that the Lions may not need to air it out nearly as often as we assumed.
UPDATE: Gibbs has been ruled out. Craig Reynolds or Zonovan Knight will both see some work. They're desperation flex options.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
Speaking of talented rookies, LaPorta continues to make splash plays and flash his athleticism. He's quickly ascending to the top of the position for fantasy purposes, averaging almost six receptions on about nine targets per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
When the game is as lopsided as it was, there's no need to throw the ball 30-plus times. It meant lower volume for St. Brown, but he made the most of his opportunities, finding the end zone while leading the team in targets and receptions. After going AWOL against the Falcons, Josh Reynolds caught three balls for 69 yards while Kalif Raymond caught his lone target for a loss of two yards. The pecking order after St. Brown remains convoluted and that might be further complicated by the return of Jameson Williams, whose suspension was reduced following a change to the NFL's gambling policy. It's also worth noting that St. Brown, who was dealing with a toe injury, has missed both practices with an abdomen injury this week. We'll see if he can get any work in on Friday, but if he's inactive, everyone else gets a bump.
UPDATE: St. Brown has been ruled out while Reynolds and Williams are active. They're both flex options with Raymond.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers RBs
Miles Sanders has been dependable because of his pass-catching, but he entered Sunday's game with a groin injury that limited him to just 43% of the offensive snaps. It allowed Chuba Hubbard to take on a bigger role, rushing the ball 14 times and earning two targets. It's a brutal matchup for any starting running back, let alone a committee. Unless Sanders is out or fully healthy, the timeshare will sink both their values.
UPDATE: Sanders practiced in full on Friday and is good to go for Sunday. It's still a really tough matchup, but it pushes him back into the flex range.
Other Matchups:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
As we alluded to, Goff didn't need to do a whole lot. He opened the game with an interception but bounced back to complete 68% of his passes for 210 yards and the touchdown to St. Brown. The matchup favors the ground attack, which plays right into the hand of Detroit, lowering the upside for Goff as a streamer.
UPDATE: If St. Brown misses, Goff loses his streamer status.
Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)
The return of Bryce Young sunk the value of this passing attack for everyone outside of Thielen. DJ Chark Jr. was a bust with two catches for 28 yards while Terrace Marshall Jr. led the team with 10 targets. They'll get Jonathan Mingo back from a concussion, but they also recognize their lack of talent in the receiving corps as they've stated they're in the market for an upgrade. It's going to be tough sledding for Young against the Detroit pass rush, making everyone outside of Thielen a bench.
Injuries:
Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen)
Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring)
Josh Reynolds (groin)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Titans -2.5
Implied Total: Titans (23) vs. Colts (20.5)
Pace: Titans (30th) vs. Colts (1st)
Titans Off. DVOA: -8.9% Pass (25th), -8.2% Rush (18th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 11.8% Pass (19th), -6.3% Rush (16th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 15.2% Pass (25th), -36.0% Rush (2nd)
Colts Def. DVOA: 4.6% Pass (14th), -7.9% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Last week, we wrote about how it was premature to write Henry off. He confirmed our belief with a monster performance. The game started slow and then got out of hand in a hurry on the back of 21 Titans points in the second quarter. It allowed Henry to pound the rock 22 times for 122 yards and one touchdown. He also threw for a score, which is the third of his career. It's another winnable game for Tennessee against Indy, locking him into the top 10.
Anthony Richardson (QB, IND)
Richardson, much like Stroud, struggled with his completion percentage but averaged almost 20 yards per completion. He also threw for two touchdowns. It's a bonus on top of the rushing floor he offers, which was on full display with another 10 carries for 56 yards and a score. He's approaching the level of Lamar Jackson, making him a must-start, especially against a pass-funnel defense that bleeds points to quarterbacks.
Matchups We Hate:
Colts RB
Jonathan Taylor sat out for four weeks rehabbing his ankle injury. He's eligible to return this week, and so far he appears on track to play. I've left the title ambiguous in case it's Zack Moss, but Tennessee is one of the league's best run defenses, removing some of the excitement for Taylor's return (assuming he suits up). Richardson is also a threat to score on the ground, which lowers the ceiling for the backfield. Taylor would be a top-24 option in his debut given the unknown element of his workload and the involvement of Moss.
UPDATE: Taylor is good to go and received a massive contract extension. It means he's their long-term starter, which could result a lower usage this week to ensure his health.
Other Matchups:
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
The tight ends vultured both of Richardson's touchdown passes along with 107 of his 200 yards. It didn't leave much left for Pittman Jr., resulting in a terrible day. It's a little concerning because they were playing from behind the entire time and finished with only 25 passing attempts. That said, Pittman remains a top-30 option because he's had 10-plus targets in every other contest thus far and the matchup is good. Until we get more consistent volume from Richardson, none of the other receiving options are worth starting.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN)
Similar to Richardson, Ryan Tannehill only aired it out 25 times. A lot of that had to the positive game script we referenced earlier, so it's not surprising that Hopkins wouldn't see as many targets. He still led the way and projects to continue as the focal point of this struggling passing attack. Tannehill has the fifth-worst passer rating, third-worst on-target percentage, and the sixth-lowest pass rate over expectation. It means you can start Hopkins as a top-36 receiver for his volume, and that's it.
Injuries:
Jonathan Taylor (ankle)
Jelani Woods (hamstring)
Treylon Burks (knee)
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -12.5
Implied Total: Giants (17.5) vs. Dolphins (30)
Pace: Giants (11th) vs. Dolphins (18th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -31.1% Pass (32nd), -20.1% Rush (25th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 76.6% Pass (1st), 28.3% Rush (1st)
Giants Def. DVOA: 30.0% Pass (29th), -3.6% Rush (22nd)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 20.8% Pass (26th), 6.8% Rush (29th)
Matchups We Love:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa is proving to be more matchup-based than anticipated, which does make sense when you consider he relies on passing touchdowns more because he doesn't run the ball. In Week 2 against the Patriots, he was the QB26, and against the Bills last week, he was the QB18. Meanwhile, against the Chargers and Broncos, he was the QB1 both weeks. He may overcome the difficult matchups as the season wears on, but thankfully, he gets the Giants, which puts him in play as a top-five signal-caller.
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
Hill got hurt partway through the contest but was able to return to action. No one from the passing attack had a great day, but we know he'll bounce back, especially given the matchup. Historically, you'd find Jaylen Waddle lumped in with Hill as an elite option. However, things haven't been so smooth this year. He's averaging just five targets per game, making it a challenge to pop off a big week as he so frequently did. He's still averaging 17.5 yards per reception, showcasing his big play ability, but the volume hasn't followed suit. The probable outcome is a better outing at home in this one, but he's not as automatic as he once was.
Dolphins RBs
De'Von Achane continues to impress with elite speed and massive upside. His first two rushing attempts went for touchdowns and he later ripped off a 55-yard run. To sustain 11.4 yards per carry on 27 attempts is unbelievable. Additionally, he's second only to Breece Hall in terms of the percentage of his yards that have come from breakaway runs (15-plus yard runs) at 65.7%. It seems impossible to maintain, but there's no doubt he's an explosive athlete. Raheem Mostert had a polar opposite experience, losing one of his two fumbles while averaging 1.3 yards per carry. Achane may have already surpassed him on the depth chart, but it'd be nice to have one more week of data before we make any declarations. There's also a chance Salvon Ahmed will see more snaps in his second week back from injury; plus, we're waiting to find out if Jeff Wilson Jr. will be active. That said, they're both in the top 24 against New York with the edge to Achane for his ceiling.
UPDATE: Wilson Jr. doesn't seem ready to return this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones faced an assault of pressure on Monday. He was sacked 10 times and hit on eight more occasions. They lost their starting center, John Michael Schmitz, midway through the game, which was too much for their O-line to overcome. The Dolphins present a relatively similar challenge this week, making Jones a bench.
Other Matchups:
Darren Waller (TE, NYG)
It's been a sad state of affairs for Waller. He's run the fifth-most routes among tight ends with a targets per route run of 19% and a yards per route run of 1.25. The usage metrics are there to indicate he's on the field earning targets, the production just hasn't been there to the extent we all hoped it would. As unsatisfying as his output has been, he's currently the TE13 on the season in half-PPR scoring and he's yet to find the end zone. It's fair to assess your options, but against Miami, he's still in the mix as a top-12 tight end.
Giants RB
Another week of uncertainty here for the New York RB room. Saquon Barkley was ruled out ahead of their game on Monday and remains limited in practice, exactly like last week. Miami is a plus matchup, especially for a player like Barkley who can showcase his receiving ability in comeback mode. If he's out, Matt Breida remains the primary backup and would be a flex option.
UPDATE: Barkley has been ruled out, providing another start for Breida.
Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, NYG)
We said last week that Robinson was on the rise, but it was too early to trot him out there. That's starting to shift. Robinson played the second-highest number of snaps behind only Darius Slayton, ran the second-most routes, and led the team in targets. He's quickly ascending to the top of a wide-open depth chart, placing him in the flex range. Hot on his tail is Jalin Hyatt, who played just three fewer snaps, ran two fewer routes, and earned four fewer targets. He's an interesting player to stash.
Injuries:
Jeff Wilson Jr. (abdomen)
Saquon Barkley (ankle)
Daniel Bellinger (neck)
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -1.0
Implied Total: Saints (19) vs. Patriots (20)
Pace: Saints (6th) vs. Patriots (2nd)
Saints Off. DVOA: -6.6% Pass (23rd), -11.5% Rush (21st)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 5.9% Pass (20th), -15.9% Rush (24th)
Saints Def. DVOA: -4.3% Pass (9th), -12.5% Rush (15th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 1.5% Pass (12th), -19.8% Rush (8th)
WEATHER: Moderate winds are expected for this game, which could impact the passing attack, but it's not a group we're excited about anyway.
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Derek Carr (QB, NO)
It's an all-around ugly matchup here offensively. Two above-average defenses face against two below-average offenses, which doesn't bode well for fantasy. Carr gutted it out with an injured shoulder and could not throw the ball down the field. The result was a pitiful 3.4 yards per attempt traveling a distance of 0.4 air yards per attempt. Despite completing 23 passes, only eight of them (34.7%) went to wide receivers. It's tempting to explain away the extremely low numbers with his shoulder injury, but on the road against New England is not a spot to trust him regardless of his health.
UPDATE: Carr is listed as questionable. In the event he did sit out, Jameis Winston would fill in as the starter.
Patriots Passing Attack
The matchup was extremely tough for Mac Jones and Co. against Dallas. They flopped badly, totaling 253 yards and three points. It also led to a quarterback change in the fourth quarter in favor of Bailey Zappe. The only bright spot was Hunter Henry, who led the team in every receiving category. Unfortunately, they host the Saints this week, who continue to be a poor matchup for tight ends, forcing everyone in their passing attack to your bench.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
There were a series of reports that came out on Sunday, many of which ended up being untrue. One of them was that Ezekiel Elliott would handle starter touches, which was not the case. Stevenson played more snaps, finished with more carries, and earned the same number of targets. It didn't make sense when it was released based on their play on the field. Regardless of his status as the starter, Stevenson has bigger issues, which are primarily centered around the inadequacies of the offense and the string of stout defenses they've faced. Additionally, his presence on the injury report with a thigh issue isn't ideal. He's not off the radar because of his role and opportunities but he moves outside the top 24.
UPDATE: Stevenson practiced all week in a limited fashion, resulting in a questionable tag. Everything is indicating it's best to find other options if you can. Elliott would become a volume-based flex option if Stevenson did sit out.
Other Matchups:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara immediately assumed a workhorse role, playing 75% of the snaps. He was decent on the ground with 14 carries for 51 yards, but his incredible 14 targets were what propped up his value. What's more amazing is he set the record with only 33 yards on 13 receptions. The previous low was 70 yards. It's a difficult matchup and it's unlikely he will see that much passing work again, but his involvement will keep him in the top 24 with greater upside in full-PPR formats.
Saints WRs
Dividing eight receptions between three players is never going to work out well. Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed underperformed, but Chris Olave caught only one pass. The Patriots did lose their first-round CB, Christian Gonzalez, for the season, which opens things up for this group, but it's hard to trust Carr to get the ball downfield. Olave is too good to move off of completely, Thomas maintains a safer floor, and Shaheed is a boom-bust receiver I'd prefer to avoid.
Injuries:
Derek Carr (shoulder)
Jamaal Williams (hamstring)
Juwan Johnson (calf)
Rhamondre Stevenson (thigh)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Ravens -4.5
Implied Total: Ravens (21.25) vs. Steelers (16.75)
Pace: Ravens (24th) vs. Steelers (7th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 30.5% Pass (10th), 14.6% Rush (4th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: -18.3% Pass (30th), -32.7% Rush (31st)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -21.5% Pass (4th), -23.2% Rush (6th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 4.1% Pass (13th), -13.3% Rush (14th)
WEATHER: Moderate winds with a chance of rain are expected here, which could impact the passing attack. It mostly affects downfield weapons like George Pickens, Calvin Austin III, or Nelson Agholor.
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
After only six rushing attempts in Week 1, Jackson has averaged almost 12 carries per game in the past three contests. The timing matches the loss of J.K. Dobbins, which could indicate a lack of faith in their other backs. It may also have been an adjustment by the coaching staff. In either case, it's unleashed his production on the ground with 182 yards and four touchdowns in that stretch. They hammered the Browns last week, who were playing without Deshaun Watson, and now they get the Steelers, who may be without Kenny Pickett. It sets up as another smash spot for Jackson.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews had a throwback performance, hauling in all five of his targets for 80 yards and both passing touchdowns Jackson threw. They were without Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, which may have helped to concentrate the targets.
Matchups We Hate:
Steelers RBs
Najee Harris did well against the Texans as anticipated, totaling over 100 scrimmage yards in part thanks to a 32-yard reception. It was good to know he can deliver top-20 numbers in a plus matchup, but that's not the case this week. Facing Baltimore, he's back in the flex range with a low floor. Jaylen Warren outscored him in full-PPR scoring by catching all six of his targets. Warren is averaging 4.5 receptions per game, which makes him a viable flex play in those formats with less excitement in half-PPR.
Ravens RBs
It's not a great situation for either backfield in terms of matchups. Also, working against this group is the number of players involved. Gus Edwards remains the lead back, but Justice Hill, Melvin Gordon III, and of course, Jackson are all getting in on the action. They've also handed at least one rushing attempt each game to Zay Flowers and are expected to get rookie Keaton Mitchell on the field for the first time. Edwards is still a flex play because he'll see the most work and have a shot to score, but the ceiling is capped without a touchdown.
UPDATE: Hill will be active along with Kenyan Drake while Gordon and Keaton Mitchell won't play this week.
Other Matchups:
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
Speaking of Flowers, he's been the other beneficiary of injuries to their receivers. They didn't need to throw much considering the score was 21-3 at halftime, but he trailed only Andrews in targets, receptions, and yards. Bateman practiced in full both days, so he's likely to return, while Beckham is more of a question mark. The game script might not foster a need to be aggressive again in Steel City, but he's the clear-cut No. 2 option, which is worth a look as a flex-level receiver.
UPDATE: Bateman and Beckham will return to action.
George Pickens (WR, PIT)
It's hard to say whether Mitch Trubisky taking over is a better situation for the offense, but it's probably not worse. Pickett practiced in full on Thursday, so he seems like he'll overcome the knee issue to play. It's going to be difficult for the offense to keep this one close, but there should be sufficient passing volume for Pickens to get his shot as a top-36 receiver with big-play potential.
UPDATE: Pickett will remain the starter after conquering his knee injury.
Injuries:
Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle)
Justice Hill (foot/hamstring)
Diontae Johnson (hamstring)
Pat Freiermuth (hamstring)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Bengals -3.0
Implied Total: Bengals (23.75) vs. Cardinals (20.75)
Pace: Bengals (14th) vs. Cardinals (12th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: -12.4% Pass (28th), -3.3% Rush (14th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 38.5% Pass (6th), 10.4% Rush (5th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 11.8% Pass (19th), 8.9% Rush (30th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 31.4% Pass (30th), 3.8% Rush (27th)
Matchups We Love:
Cardinals WRs
Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson may turn out to be two of the most underrated fantasy options entering the season. We knew the talent of Brown, but few believed in the Arizona passing attack. With Kyler Murray sidelined and Colt McCoy as the presumed backup, things were grim, but Joshua Dobbs has vastly exceeded expectations, thrusting these two into relevance. Brown has a targets per route run of 27% with a yards per route run of 2.03 while Wilson comes in at 18% and 2.49, both of which are impressive for a rookie wideout. The matchup is decent and because the Bengals offense can't sustain drives, they should have plenty of chances to score points.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
The Bengals are even worse against the run, that'll happen when you get rocked by Derrick Henry. They rank 30th in run defense DVOA and in rushing yards per attempt allowed. Conner's performance against the 49ers was mediocre, but that's to be expected. He's averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the season with the 10th-best elusive rating. The issue he ran into last week was Emari Demercado taking away receiving work. The rookie ran one more route and earned two more targets than Conner. It shouldn't factor in much against the Bengals because it'll be more competitive, but it's worth monitoring for future matchups. Conner lands inside the top 24.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
It's hard to love anyone on the Cincinnati offense right now the way Joe Burrow is playing, but Chase has a knack for getting open. He ranks eighth in separation among all receivers. Plus the team is without Tee Higgins, ensuring a massive target share. The Cardinals are a great matchup, which does make Tyler Boyd an intriguing flex option given his historical success when Higgins is out.
UPDATE: Higgins has been ruled out as expected.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
It's not fun to place a player of his caliber in this section, particularly when the matchup isn't difficult, but his calf is a major concern. Failing the way he did against Tennessee with only 165 passing yards and three total points on offense craters my confidence. Arizona is playing inspired football, evidenced by their upset of Dallas, so it's best to search for other quarterbacks this week.
Other Matchups:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon leads the NFL with 77.6% of teams' rushing attempts, but he's 29th with only an 8.6% target share. It's a little odd given that Burrow is so limited in terms of his mobility. You would expect more checkdowns, but it hasn't worked out that way so far. The matchup should allow him to turn his volume into top-24 production. The issue is his touchdown upside is lower than usual the way the offense is struggling.
Joshua Dobbs (QB, ARI)
Dobbs has been sneaky good on the ground. He's run for the fourth-most yards (141) on the fifth-most attempts (24). It's clear the coaching staff view his legs as a weapon, adding an element of explosiveness to the offense. He's also averaging over 200 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game. Against the Bengals, he's a nice streamer. He's also an example of someone I'd start over Burrow this week.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
We know the deal with Ertz: tons of volume, minimal yards after the catch ability (2.1 per reception). At the tight end position, he's someone you can count for a floor, especially in full-PPR formats.
Injuries:
Tee Higgins (rib)
Kyler Murray (knee)
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Eagles -4.0
Implied Total: Eagles (27.25) vs. Rams (23.25)
Pace: Eagles (27th) vs. Rams (28th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 22.3% Pass (12th), 17.9% Rush (3rd)
Rams Off. DVOA: 21.8% Pass (13th), 4.6% Rush (7th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 9.5% Pass (17th), -40.9% Rush (1st)
Rams Def. DVOA: 12.5% Pass (21st), -0.0% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts continues to play well enough for the Eagles to win, but they're really flirting with fire. After getting hammered by the Bills, Washington forced overtime against them last week. It's odd and somewhat concerning from an NFL perspective. However, for fantasy purposes, he's consistently delivered outside of Week 1.
Eagles WRs
After what was deemed a slow start to the year by his standards, A.J. Brown has been the WR1 over the past two weeks, racking up 18 catches for 306 yards and two touchdowns. He's unstoppable right now. It definitely hurt DeVonta Smith in Week 3, but he finished as the WR24 against the Commanders, which is okay. It's hard to imagine Brown maintaining this level of production, so in a good matchup, they're both players to throw out there.
D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
Swift sits inside the top 10 in rushing yards over expected per attempt, missed tackles forced, and rush attempts per broken tackle. He's been very good since taking over the backfield. Even with a full allotment of tailbacks, he played 63% of the offensive snaps. He's the clear-cut starter, locking him into the top 15 against the Rams.
Rams WRs
The theme of superstars returning from Injured Reserve continues here with Cooper Kupp. The plan to bring him back in Week 5 seems to be on track as he practiced in full on Thursday. We'll need an official designation or lack thereof, but assuming he's out there, he has to be in your lineup for the elite ceiling. Puka Nacua's target share will definitely take a hit, but he's not going away completely after what we've seen so far. He's still a top-24 receiver against the Eagles' young secondary. Tutu Atwell could be the one impacted the most, but the risk is lesser this week because it's probable that Kupp will play fewer snaps than usual. He's still a flex option with a top-36 upside.
UPDATE: Kupp is good to go. Head coach Sean McVay said he won't be on a pitch count, which primarily impacts the value of Atwell.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford has been extremely productive from a passing yardage perspective, the touchdowns just haven't been there. Adding in a wideout who posted 22 of them in the past one-and-a-half campaigns ought to help with that. The Eagles looked like they resolved their secondary issues for one week against the Buccaneers, but the Commanders exploited them again on Sunday. Stafford's recent play and array of weapons put him on the map near the top 12.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
Taking on the No. 1 ranked rush defense by DVOA isn't a good spot to be in, but Williams has such a strong role with an awesome workload that it's hard to fade him too much. He ranks sixth in rushing attempts (64) and third in running back targets (22). It also helps that he's found the end zone five times, but this offense will score points, keeping him in the top 15. Ronnie Rivers did get some more work, which may have been part of the plan, or it may have been because Williams was dealing with a hip injury.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
The list of players whose volume could decrease with Kupp back extends to Higbee as well. They don't necessarily overlap on the field but Stafford is more apt to look to Kupp when he's out there. Higbee is still a strong streamer given the higher over/under and passing attack.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Things continue to get worse for Goedert, whose targets, receptions, and yards all went down in Week 4. The game script was favorable, leading to 37 passing attempts, but he was vastly out-targeted by Smith and Brown while tying Swift in targets. He's played at least 92% of the snaps every week and he's run the third-most routes among tight ends, but his targets per route run are down at 15% with a yards per route run of 0.68. It's a top-10 matchup, which is why he's still residing in this section, but he drops into the streaming range.
Injuries:
Kyren Williams (hip)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Implied Total: Jets (20.5) vs. Broncos (23)
Pace: Jets (15th) vs. Broncos (22nd)
Jets Off. DVOA: -1.5% Pass (21st), -28.4% Rush (29th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 18.3% Pass (15th), -5.1% Rush (15th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 14.1% Pass (22nd), -13.9% Rush (13th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 63.7% Pass (32nd), 12.3% Rush (31st)
Matchups We Love:
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
The Jets nearly mounted a comeback against the Chiefs, inspiring confidence in their offense just in time to take on Denver. It could be a mirage, but the matchup is as good as it gets. Wilson has a 25-plus percent target share in every game, so if the offense can continue to sustain production, his ceiling could become a lot higher. He'll be the obvious choice for Patrick Surtain II to shadow, but receivers have found a way to produce because the rest of the defense is so inept. You could also look to Allen Lazard as a flex option given his big-play potential and the matchup.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
One of the downsides of drafting Hall this season was their schedule. Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Denver, and Philly looked like a murderers row for matchups. It turns out one of these things is not like the others. Combine that with the update from head coach Robert Saleh that he'll no longer be on a pitch count, and things are trending upward for Hall. Saleh did note that they still want to use other players, but if he can get 12-15 touches, he could post a monster performance.
Matchups We Hate:
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
It's tempting to stay in the flames with Wilson, who has 300-plus yards or three touchdowns in each of the past three weeks. However, New York was a fearsome defense entering the year, and after a blip against Dallas, they appear back to form. He's not someone you can't start, but the risk is much higher this week.
Broncos WRs
Wilson elected to spread the ball around to 11 different players against Chicago, which is terrible for fantasy. It led to only five targets for Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, who were disappointing given the matchup. Sutton found the end zone for the third time in 2023, but neither helped your team. One of these two will face Sauce Gardner in coverage, which is a problem. It's also hard to trust their volume. Sutton remains the preferred receiver, but he falls outside the top 30.
Other Matchups:
Broncos RB
The mess at the running back position keeps on rearing its ugly head here. Javonte Williams suffered a quad injury, forcing him to leave the game early in Week 4. That led to more work for Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin, who we highlighted as the backup in terms of production and touches. As a popular waiver add this week, he's intriguing, but mainly if Williams is out. It's also within the realm of possibility that all three of these players split touches. It's not a great matchup, so it's becoming a backfield to avoid for the most part. Although, Williams should be the lead back if he's healthy.
UPDATE: After practicing in full on Friday, he's now being called a game-time decision. His workload will be uncertain if he plays, but he'd still be a flex option with bye weeks beginning.
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ)
Something no one thought possible was Wilson having a better game than Mahomes, but that was the case on Sunday. Wilson looked capable of leading an NFL offense for the first time in his career, which is fantastic for the pieces on this team. It's wise not to get overzealous, but if you're in need of a streamer and the options aren't great, the matchup dictates he's in play.
Injuries:
Greg Dulcich (leg)
Javonte Williams (quad)
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Implied Total: Chiefs (28.25) vs. Vikings (24.75)
Pace: Chiefs (21st) vs. Vikings (3rd)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 36.2% Pass (7th), -0.4% Rush (11th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (14th), -8.7% Rush (20th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -2.7% Pass (10th), -5.7% Rush (20th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 12.0% Pass (20th), -7.8% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
The Jefferson touchdown regression has been on full display the past two weeks, totaling three of them. They chose to lean on their rushing attack for the first time this season, which is wise against Carolina. It meant only 19 passing attempts for Kirk Cousins, so the fact that Jefferson had nine of them is quite impressive. Unfortunately, that left K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison on the outside looking in. Addison full out goosed, which hurts, but there's no doubt they'll need to air it out this week to keep up with Kansas City. Osborn is operating as the team's No. 2 receiver, but he's still behind T.J. Hockenson. He and Addison are around the top 36 in a potential shootout.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Hockenson posted a dud, but we already reviewed why. Nothing from his usage suggests anything changed. He's a top-five tight end.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes made some uncharacteristic mistakes, throwing three interceptions, including one that was called back on a questionable pass interference penalty. That said, the Jets boast an elite defense. The Vikings, on the other hand, are a wonderful matchup. At some point, he'll need one of his many receivers to emerge as a reliable option, but we'll get to that shortly.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
It was a bumpy ride for Kelce in New York, but heading to Minnesota will surely rectify the situation. When six receptions for 60 yards is lower output at the tight end position, you know you're among the best.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
The talent of Pacheco as a runner is undeniable. He runs hard and punishes defenders. He sits fifth in elusive rating and missed tackles forced on 4.9 yards per carry. The issue is that he typically shares a lot of work, especially as a pass-catcher. Against the Jets, he was unleashed with 20 of the 26 (77%) rushing attempts and three of the five targets. If we knew he'd see that level of volume each week, he'd be in the top 12 on this offense.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
We covered the Cousins situation earlier. They chose to run on the Panthers even though they trailed for a large portion of the game. The Chiefs have been tougher to throw on this season, limiting quarterbacks to fewer than 15 fantasy points per game while ranking 10th in pass defense DVOA. Cousins falls a bit but he's still in the top 12 based on their offensive philosophy and his weapons.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
Mattison did see the lowest snap percentage of the season with Cam Akers active, but he was still the definitive starter with more than double the snaps, 12 more rushing attempts, and three more routes. He also capitalized on the matchup, running for over five yards per carry with nearly 100 on the day. There should be a lot of points scored by both teams, keeping him in play as a top-24 back for another week.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
The receiver that is on his way to emerging is Rice. We highlighted his underlying metrics last week, which were indicative of a potential breakout. His snaps continue to hover around 50%, but he led this group in every receiving category. In his fourth NFL game in an offense that is known to be challenging, it's a great sign. Keep him in mind as a flex option that might see even more work if the back-and-forth aerial attack comes to fruition. There's no one else to take a shot on, despite the positive outlook.
Injuries:
Richie James (knee)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Implied Total: Cowboys (20.75) vs. 49ers (24.25)
Pace: Cowboys (26th) vs. 49ers (31st)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 15.2% Pass (17th), -6.7% Rush (17th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 67.6% Pass (2nd), 20.1% Rush (2nd)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -36.0% Pass (1st), -14.7% Rush (12th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -10.8% Pass (6th), -3.5% Rush (23rd)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
Four touchdowns in a game for a running back is absurd. The 49ers are a complete team that designs their entire offense around him. He's putting up the type of season that wins managers a championship, just as he did a few years ago. Elijah Mitchell looks like he'll miss again this week. Jordan Mason was the next man up in theory. In reality, it was their fullback, Kyle Juszczyk, who the team trusts, that played 65% of snaps.
UPDATE: Mitchell has been ruled out as expected, making Mason and Juszczyk desperation flex options.
Matchups We Hate:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
They thumped the Patriots 38-3, yet Prescott threw for 261 yards and one touchdown. Part of the issue is the defense scored as many touchdowns as the offense did, two. It figures to be a more competitive contest this week. If anything, it'll be Dallas trailing so they'll need better production from their offense, but Prescott remains a player to avoid in a very poor matchup.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Arizona did an admirable job of keeping it close, but inevitably the offense took over and ran away with this one. Obviously, three rushing touchdowns from McCaffrey impacted the passing game, but Purdy still got his 200-plus passing yards and two total scores, this time running one in. He's still a streamer because they'll find ways to move the ball and score, but he's at a higher risk of finishing with turnovers or a lower-yard total.
Other Matchups:
49ers WRs
Deebo Samuel seemed like he'd miss their contest. Instead, he was active and deployed as a decoy. Hopefully, he wasn't someone you had to start. It opened up a ton of opportunities for Brandon Aiyuk, who blew up. He made the most of six targets, catching all of them for 148 yards. Samuel has been limited in practice on both days to open the week, so if he's still dealing with an injury, Aiyuk gets a bump into the top 15. This will be the first real test for the Dallas secondary since losing Trevon Diggs. Samuel would be a riskier top-24 wideout if active, especially if he enters the weekend with a questionable tag.
UPDATE: Samuel practiced in full on Friday and is off the injury report. It's promising for his outlook, but there is still a little risk.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle normally capitalizes when one of the wideouts is banged up, but McCaffrey stole so much receiving work that he was disappointing. They'll need to throw more than 21 times to win this week, so Kittle stays in the top 10.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Ferguson ceded snaps to rookie Luke Schoonmaker, who played a season-high 56% of the snaps. It's possible some of that has to do with the blowout, but the good news is that it didn't interfere with his production. He led the team in every receiving category, locking him into the top 10, despite the tough matchup.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
No one on the Dallas offense outside of Ferguson really did a whole lot because the defense scored twice and ended any chance of New England winning very early. Aside from the game against the Cardinals, their defense has been dominating, so it's been tricky to gauge usage and offensive output. It's a tough matchup, but Lamb is still in the top 15. After a slow start, Michael Gallup has been heating up. He's hauled in a combined 11 receptions for 152 yards over the past two weeks, solidifying his role in the offense. Brandin Cooks still played more snaps but it's Gallup you want to target as a flex option.
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
It's the same story here for Pollard. The offense didn't need to do much and they started giving carries to other backs like Rico Dowdle, KaVontae Turpin, Hunter Luepke, and Deuce Vaughn. There's no chance that will happen this week. Trust his importance to the offense, and that they'll lean on him with their reluctance to rely on Prescott. He's due for a better outing.
Injuries:
Elijah Mitchell (knee)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Implied Total: Packers (21.25) vs. Raiders (23.75)
Pace: Packers (8th) vs. Raiders (16th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 29.2% Pass (11th), -26.6% Rush (28th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: -10.7% Pass (26th), -34.1% Rush (32nd)
Packers Def. DVOA: 9.7% Pass (18th), 0.0% Rush (25th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 28.0% Pass (28th), -5.8% Rush (19th)
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones returned to action against the Lions on Thursday, but he was far from full health. He played just 35% of the snaps. They also were losing quickly, so there was no need to risk re-injury. Thankfully, the short week provides him with 10 days of rest entering this one. He should be closer to full health and ready to run wild against the Raiders as a top-24 back.
UPDATE: Jones practiced all week and is listed as questionable. It would be surprising to see him inactive after playing 10 days ago with no reported setbacks.
Packers WRs
Much like Jones, Christian Watson was active, but only played 46% of the snaps. He'll also benefit from the additional rest, making him an intriguing top-36 receiver with a big-time upside. After him, Romeo Doubs projects as the No. 2 option. After relying on touchdowns to prop up his production, he's been more of a target hog the past two weeks, earning 12 and 13 of them, respectively. He's in the top 36 as well. Last but not least is the talented rookie, Jayden Reed. He's been explosive on limited volume, which is what he'll need to do with a full complement of weapons. He's an intriguing flex option given the matchup.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs still didn't excel on the ground, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. However, rookie quarterback Aidan O'Connell used him over and over, resulting in eight receptions on 11 targets for 81 yards. We'll see who's behind center this week, but the matchup is really good against Green Bay, so he's in the top 20 for sure.
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
Adams suffered a shoulder injury midway through their game that sidelined him temporarily. He returned to the field to continue soaking up targets, but he opened the week with a missed practice. We'll need to keep an eye on his participation, but the odds are he's out there. Jimmy Garoppolo is trying to work his way back from a concussion. If he's active, then Jakobi Meyers becomes a top-36 wideout; otherwise, it's Adams against his former team, and move on.
UPDATE: Adams missed back-to-back practices before logging a limited one on Saturday, earning him a questionable tag. Meanwhile, Garoppolo cleared the concussion protocol, meaning he'll return for Monday's game. It puts Meyers back in play as a top-36 wideout with secure volume. He'd have added upside if Adams were to miss.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB)
Musgrave was progressively moving towards a breakout before last week when his day ended early with a concussion. Fortunately, he's practicing in full and should be good to go this week. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, so there's a risk of Musgrave being left out. However, the tight end group saw seven targets, which is a good sign for his potential role. He's a streaming option.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Love keeps coming through for fantasy with at least two touchdowns in every game this year. Even in an underwhelming performance against the Lions, he still found pay dirt twice. It's a bit uncomfortable to rely on that each week, but the matchup is really good, so he remains a streamer.
Injuries:
Davante Adams (shoulder)
Aaron Jones (hamstring)
Christian Watson (hamstring)
