Fantasy Deep Dive Week 7: Jaren Jackson Jr.

December 3, 2018

RotoBaller's Justin Carter looks at film from Memphis Grizzlies power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. to look at why he is a fantasy basketball riser n the 2018-2019 NBA season.

NBA Twitter's favorite draft prospect is all grown up.

Jaren Jackson Jr. was universally loved by NBA Draft people heading into this year's draft and everyone knew that the Grizzlies had gotten themselves a good player. Then Summer League happened, and everyone really knew that the Grizzlies had gotten themselves a good player. Then the Grizzlies were actually good to start the year and...well, you get where this is going.

Let's take a dive into some of Jackson's advanced stats and film and talk about why he's a rising fantasy asset.

Jaren Jackson Jr.: Deep Dive

Background Information

Here's what I wrote about JJJ after his Summer League performance, when I pegged him as an early riser heading into the season:

Oh. My. JJJ was the talk of NBA Twitter during Summer League as each game he seemed to focus on doing very, very well at a particular aspect of his game. Whether it was his seven blocks against the Jazz in Vegas or his eight three pointers against the Hawks during the Utah Summer League, Jackson Jr. seemed to be everywhere at once. He finished Summer League as the leading blocker (2.3 per game) of the Utah portion and the number two blocker (3.8 per game) in Vegas. His 3.11 defensive-BPM is one of the best of Summer League and the 19 year old should make an immediate impact at the four for the Grizzlies

I bring this up because those things -- long-range shooting, blocks, and his overall defensive ability -- are pretty important parts of his game. Jackson is shooting 36 percent from three on 36 percent shooting. He's averaging a pair of blocks per game, a number that places the rookie in a tie with Joel Embiid for seventh in the NBA. He's third among rookies in D-PIPM. All those things we thought made him a special player? Yeah, they're making him a special player.

While some of advanced numbers haven't been great, especially on/off numbers, where the Grizzlies have an offensive rating that's 7.8 points better when Jackson sits, we can chalk a lot of it up to Jackson being a rookie who is still getting used to the NBA game. And the good news for fantasy owners? He looks like he's used to it now.

Jackson played just 18 minutes against the Raptors because of foul trouble, finishing with four points, but he's still averaged 19 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks on 59.6 percent shooting over the past four games. A shooting split of 59.6/57.1/85.7 is some really impressive stuff. This kid is good.

Game Tape

Let's look at some videos of Jaren Jackson Jr. and talk about what he does well.

Here's an early shot from Friday's meeting with the Nets. What I like here, and what speaks volumes in my opinion about Jackson's maturity and effectiveness, is that he starts this play with the ball down low but with bad position on Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. A lot of bigs try to take a bad shot here under the assumption that they're close to the bucket and it'll go in, but Jackson recognizes this isn't a great spot for him and kicks it back to Mike Conley. Jackson immediately backs out toward the corner, opening up driving space for Conley, and then once Conley starts to drive he comes back in towards the paint, catches the pass from Conley, and hits the hook shot from right in front of the basket, a much higher percentage shot than the imaginary one he didn't take.

This one is pretty simple. Grizzlies get out running, and Jackson ends up running toward the basket with D'Angelo Russell guarding him. That is, umm, a bit of a mismatch, and Jackson is pretty easily able to get the inside position and make the shot.

Now, here's Jackson taking advantage of a defensive mistake. Memphis has Jackson out on the wing the whole time on this play, and with Marc Gasol's position, there's a pretty easy lane for the ball to come out to Jackson if he gets some room.

And well, he gets that room. When Hollis-Jefferson goes into to double the posted-up Gasol, the veteran center sees how much space Jackson has, passes the ball out to him, and despite some close-out effort from RHJ, he drains the three.

It's a bad idea to leave Jackson open, as he's a 36 percent shooter on catch-and-shoot threes. Sure, it's not the world's most dangerous catch-and-shoot percentage, but when that comes packaged in a player of Jackson's size, it's enough to really add to what Memphis is capable of doing.

Want to see something terrifying? It's Jackson driving the ball from past the arc.

At some point on this play, Jackson looks around and realizes wait, the only thing between me and that basket is Ed Davis, and I'm much better than Ed Davis, so instead of making the pass to a teammate, he just takes it himself, driving towards the basket and finishing.

Mostly, I'm posting this one because I like that we get to see the floor from a different angle. It's easier to follow where Jackson's at the whole way as he waits pretty patiently on the left side of the floor. When the ball gets to Marc Gasol down in the paint, Jarrett Allen comes over to double Gasol (and by the way, teams doubling Gasol and opening up Jackson has come up a few times here, so let's not underrate how important having a guy with Gasol's post gravity is to Jackson's ability to get open shots and why he's successful earlier than some would have thought) and opens up space for Jackson to get the short jumper off.

And, of course, the shot of the game from Jackson, the three that sends it to overtime:

Jackson doesn't have a ton of space to work with here. He sets the screen and gets the switch onto Jarrett Allen, which is a good thing out on the perimeter, but Allen is right there to contest that shot. Doesn't matter. Swish. Overtime. Jackson is already not afraid to take a shot like that in a big situation, and as he acclimates more to the NBA game and increases his efficiency, he's going to do that a lot and make it a lot.

Jackson didn't record a block in that game, but I'm not ending this article without admiring his blocking skill, so let's roll some earlier tapes.

Kawhi Leonard gets driving space after he pump fakes JaMychal Green and then it's off to the basket he goes for the easy lay...oh. Jackson gets good position there and is able to contest the shot.

Here's another block. I don't have too much to say about either of these except to mention that Jackson does a good job positioning himself in a place where he can get a play on the ball, but his aggressiveness on that end is also an issue, as he's committed far too many fouls this year already. You get a lot of blocks because of that aggressiveness, but it comes coupled with something you're much less happy with.

The Fantasy Impact

It's too late to go out and pick up Jackson off waivers unless you're in the 18 percent of Yahoo leagues where he is somehow unowned still. If you do happen to be...well, get him. Now. Stop reading this article and go pick up JJJ.

He's a potential trade target for others, though trying to trade him for him right after Friday's showing might be tough. Your best chance? Wait for Jackson to have another bad game, because they'll happen every so often until he gets his foul troubles under control. In fact, if you trade for him you're taking a big risk and hoping he does get that foul trouble under control, as he currently leads the NBA in fouls and has committed four or more in five straight games. Committing fouls at this rate puts a damper on Jackson's overall fantasy ceiling.

Still, he's a big man who can give you help in field goal and free throw percentage while hitting from outside and blocking shots. He's the perfect complementary piece for your fantasy team and he's only going to get better. Granted, his numbers from the double overtime game against the Nets get an asterisk since there were two overtimes, but Jackson only scored two points in overtime as it became the Mike Conley show.

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