X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Homer Bailey & Danny Salazar: Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller Lou Capetta uses RotoBaller's ADP Sleepers Tool to find two starting pitcher sleepers for the 2014 fantasy baseball season.

RotoBaller's average draft position tool is a great new tool to help you prepare for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft. It works for positions with substantial depth, like outfielders and starting pitchers.

Just like in real baseball, fantasy pitching is an enigma at times, and something that almost every fantasy expert has a different opinion on. Some will never take a pitcher in the first round, no matter how good, while others believe getting one or two ace pitchers is a must. Some experts don't draft closers, yet others will end up reaching for the elite ones early. Then there is the argument over who is really more valuable, back end rotation guys who can accumulate stats by eating innings, or dominant middle relievers who get the most most out of the few innings they pitch.  Whatever your view is on fantasy pitching, one thing is certain...making the wrong moves in the pitching categories can lead you to a long season.

With our ADP tool, we can help weed out some of the overvalued arms who may cost you a high draft pick, and offer some comparable later round options draft sleepers. Lets begin with a guy who, in my opinion, is one of the most overvalued pitchers in fantasy baseball.

 

Overvalued: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (ADP: 36)

I've seen Nationals phenom Stephen Strasburg pitch in person many times, and trust me, the kid is electric. The same can be said for his fantasy production, as Strasburg is a lock for a solid ERA and WHIP, and 190-plus strikeouts per year. So what's the problem, here? It's health, which more times than not is the great equalizer in fantasy sports. The RotoBaller ADP tool has Strasburg at an ADP of 36, which in a standard 12-team league, puts him in the third round. That's not terrible, but in most of the mock drafts I've done so far this year, I've seen him go about 10 picks earlier. While I'm not one of those experts who balks at taking ace starters early, I don't like taking guys who are an injury waiting to happen that early either. Strasburg has had injury issues in two of the past three seasons, and many pitching experts are convinced that his violent mechanics will lead to more arm trouble down the road. If that's not enough, even when he is healthy, he's on a constant innings watch. That not only has a chance to severely cut into his win total (as evidenced by his 8 wins in 2013), but who wants to take a chance of not having their second or third round pick in the month of September when Strasburg reaches his innings limit and is shut down by his team, like he was in 2012. Strasburg is already an ace who still has plenty of upside, so maybe I'll be wrong on the Washington ace. Still, with an ADP that early, Strasburg is too much of a risk for me.

In case you had your heart set on Strasburg and are now having second thoughts, here are two pitchers who offer comparable skills and can be had much later in drafts.

 

Sleeper: Danny Salazar, Indians (ADP: 172)

Want all of the upside Stephen Strasburg has to offer without spending an early round pick? If so, Cleveland future star Danny Salazar may be the pick for you.

After being called up last July, Salazar put up ace-like numbers the rest of 2013. In 10 starts, Salazar posted a very solid 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but what really should catch the eye of fantasy owners is the fact that Cleveland youngster struckout 65 batters in only 52 innings pitched. That's a K/9 rate of  11.3, or two whole K's better than Strasburg's 9.39 K/9, and with an ADP in the 170s, he can be had in most drafts 10-11 rounds later than Strasburg.

With Ubaldo Jimenez taking his talents to Baltimore, there is zero chance that the pitching strapped Indians leave Salazar out of the rotation for 2014, but that doesn't mean there aren't concerns here as well. First, I'm not sold on the Indians repeating their success from last year, so don't be counting on Salazar to be leading the league in wins. I'm also pretty sure that over a full season, Salazar's K/9 rate will take a hit, although he should still be able to average at least a punchout per inning. Also, as with Strasburg, and most young pitchers in today's game, you have to be worried about an innings limit. I'm not sure what Cleveland's plans are for watching Salazar's innings, but I can't see him throwing more than 175 innings this year. Those concerns aside, Slazar's value at the moment is completely tied to his ADP, and the fact that you may be able to find a guy who turns into Cleveland's ace toward the end of your draft. Danny Salazar has the chance to be the Jose Fernandez of 2014, and if you decide to play it safe and pass on a guy like Strasburg, targeting Danny Salazar is a smart idea.

Undervalued: Homer Bailey, Reds (ADP: 120)

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

With an ADP of around 120, Homer Bailey is a tenth-eleventh round pick on average, and quite frankly I don't get it. There is so much to like about Bailey, and for one reason or another, he's not getting the same love as other comparable pitchers like Madison Bumgarner (who has an ADP of 55).

Maybe he doesn't offer as much upside as Salazar or Strasburg, but Homer Bailey has been a lock for 200 innings pitched the past two seasons, a feat that Strasburg has yet to accomplish. After winning 13 games with a 3.68 ERA, 168 strikeouts, and a 1.24 WHIP for a very solid 2012, Bailey improved significantly in 2013, posting 11 wins a 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 199 strikeouts. Those numbers are comparable to guys like Strasburg, Bumgarner, Verlander, Iwakuma, and even Felix Hernandez last year, yet for some reason, Bailey continually goes 5-6 rounds later than those guys.

Sure, Bailey pitches in a bandbox of a home ballpark, but his HR/FB% was actually better than Strasburg's last year at roughly 10%, and his GB% is headed strongly in the right direction and was above average for the first time in his career. Still only 27, Bailey is entering his prime years just as his numbers are knocking on the door of "ace" status. I am targeting him in all of my drafts this year, and if you plan to wait on pitching in your draft, Bailey is the guy to go after.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jacob Cowing

Could Handle Gadget Role in San Francisco
Jayden Higgins

to Start for Texans Right Away?
Sauce Gardner

Agrees to $120.4 Million Contract Extension
Marvin Mims Jr.

Could be on Track for First 1,000-Yard Season
Jaylen Johnson

Chargers Place Jaylen Johnson on PUP List
Dereck Lively II

Undergoes Right-Foot Surgery Tuesday
Kendrick Bourne

Kayshon Boutte Fighting for Final Spots
Isaiah Collier

Logs a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Monday
DeMario Douglas

Kyle Williams "Locks" for Receiving Corps
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Finalizing Massive Extension
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Expected to Ease Anthony Richardson Sr. Back in
Devin Carter

Posts 17 Points Versus Suns
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 17 Points in Summer League Loss
Terry McLaurin

Undecided on Whether he Will Report to Training Camp
Colston Loveland

Says his Shoulder is 100 Percent
Harrison Ingram

has Impressive Outing Against Jazz
Sam Williams

has Potential to be Elite Edge Rusher
Shemar Stewart

Considering Going Back to College?
Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions Want Jahmyr Gibbs "More Involved" in Passing Game
Jordan Addison

Could be Facing Three-Game Suspension
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Kyle Filipowski

Records 35-Point Double-Double Against Spurs
Kel'el Ware

Dominates Against Celtics
Kon Knueppel

Gets Going Monday
Matas Buzelis

Puts Up 28 Points in Win Over Pacers
Reed Sheppard

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
Paul George

Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Najee Harris

Likely to Miss Time at Start of Training Camp
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Collin Morikawa

Misses The Cut at Genesis Scottish Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 13th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooks Koepka

Finishes Tied For 32nd at LIV Andalucia
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For 34th at Genesis Scottish Open
Jason Day

Misses The Cut at John Deere Classic
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Cam Taylor-Britt

has Benefited From Addition of Al Golden
Rome Odunze

Could Take Off in Year 2
RJ Harvey

to Get "Significant" Work in Broncos' Passing Game
Jackson Powers-Johnson

More Comfortable Heading into Year 2
Luke McCaffrey

In Line for Larger Role?
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF