X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2018 Batting Average Risers and Fallers - What We Learned

The great thing about batting average is that it’s a great starting metric for building a strong fantasy team. It’s one of those rare stats that, when correctly targeted and prioritized, sets the foundation for a season of nearly guaranteed success.

In fantasy football, it’s a good idea to acquire players who get red zone usage and heavy workloads. In fantasy hockey, it’s in your best interest to target players who log big minutes and take plenty of shots. In fantasy basketball, you want to own players who play over 30 minutes per game and have high usage rates. In fantasy baseball, you have more flexibility, but players who simply get hits are the guys you need to be drafting.

Luckily for us fantasy gamers, a player’s batting average generally stays steady year-to-year... until it doesn’t. You need to be able to identify red flags and positive trends in a batters profile so you can be the first manager in your league to buy or sell a trending player.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

Batting Average Risers

Avisail Garcia (OF, CWS)

Garcia’s arrow was pointing straight down going into 2017. A 25 year old post-hype outfielder playing on the league’s most talent-deprived roster had no one excited heading into April. A 2017 Garcia breakout was highly unlikely.

Completely reasonable and justified, everyone pegged Garcia as a bust worth drafting in AL-only leagues. He was tossed aside, that is, until he started striking out less and hitting the ball harder, making more contact in the strike zone, and swinging at less junk outside the zone. Garcia had always been a high-average hitter even when he was stinking it up defensively, so when he made a few adjustments to his game - more patience and more focus, particularly in identifying strikes and balls - his production blossomed. His soft contact rate dropped to 15.7% while his hard contact rate improved to 35.3%. His overall contact rate rose to 72.4%, which is nearly a full two percent higher than his career contact rate of 70.6%.

Garcia was suddenly a must-own in all fantasy leagues after his contact rates improved across the board, completely substantiating his early season hot streak. Expect Garcia to continue raking in 2018.

 

Josh Reddick (OF, HOU)

Reddick just flat-out swung less in 2017. When he did swing, though, he made contact at a higher rate than his career average. Reddick’s convenient three percent dip in swing percentage, from a career rate of 46.1% to 43.7% was buoyed by a a two-and-a-half percent increase in contact rate. 2017 Reddick swung less than he usually had throughout his career, but he was making more contact when he did swing. You’ll see that this is often the formula for a batting average increase. Of course, Reddick’s BABIP saw a stark rise in 2017. His career .290 BABIP was dwarfed by a .339 BABIP in 2017, but a closer look at his contact rates reveals that Reddick was hitting more line drives last year. His line drive rate rose to 24.2% in 2017, three percent higher than his career rate of 21.1%.

Couple Reddick’s Zobrist-esque approach at the plate and a cushy role on the league’s most talented team and you have a player who’s viable in most fantasy settings. It’s wheels up for Reddick this season.

 

Chris Taylor (SS/OF, LAD)

Taylor’s batting average was destined to improve after an abysmal 2016 campaign where his .213 BA and one HR nearly wiped him off of every fantasy gamer’s radar. Taylor was all over the place in 2016. He swung at everything. His 2016 swing rate of 50.8% was significantly higher than his career rate of 46%, and his discipline with close pitches was nearly non-existent. He was swinging at strikes without hesitation, but he wasn’t connecting. Taylor was swinging at 75.6% of pitches thrown in the zone in 2016. His career zone swing rate is 67.4%.

Taylor needed to make an adjustment to save his big league career, so he started swinging much less. That included pitches thrown in the zone, too. Taylor was swinging at anything and everything in 2016, but he still managed to post the highest contact rate of his career up to that point. In 2017, however, when he started swinging at less pitches, he actually improved his contact rate to 76.4%, a full two percent higher than his 2016 rate.

Like Avisail Garcia, Taylor managed to swing at less pitches and make more contact. Assuming Taylor builds off of his 2017 adjustments, expect him to hit around .270, at the least.

 

Batting Average Fallers

Mookie Betts (OF, BOS)

Betts’ 2017 left a lot to be desired. During a season in which he was being drafted second overall in many drafts, Betts saw his batting average fall off a cliff. His .318 BA in 2016 led many fantasy gamers to championships, but after posting a .264 BA in 2016, Betts was a bit of a bust, even when counting his 101 runs and 102 RBI.

Betts’ 2017 BABIP was incredibly lower than his career .303 BABIP, and his deeper numbers reveal that he swung less but didn’t compensate for it by making more contact. He made less contact in 2017 than he ever had before. One would think that swinging at less pitches would lead to a sizable drop off in strikeout rate, but that was not the case for Betts in 2017. His strikeout rate technically increased from a 2016 rate of 11% to 11.1% in 2017.

Fantasy owners should cast Betts’ 2017 aside and expect a season more in line with his sensational 2015 or 2016 seasons. His BABIP will rise and I’m sure Boston’s analytics department will urge Betts to swing more in 2018.

 

Corey Seager (SS, LAD)

Complaining about Seager’s 2017 batting average drop is about the most absurd gripe one could possibly have regarding his game. He’s a sensational MVP-caliber player who will likely win a World Series some day. Until then, we will have to sit here and dissect his metrics profile, meticulously scouring each chart tab for the tip-off that would lead us to justify the oh-so-grave injustice Seager left us with last year. Why, Corey, why?!

Seager’s batting average “fell” in 2017 after a 2016 season with a .308 BA. Seager traded a few hits for a few more walks, and his average fell in the process. His healthy career contact rate of 77.2% was underperformed last season, even though Seager’s hard contact rate rose four percent. He hit more fly balls, less grounders, and a few more line drives, yada yada yada.

Be sure to draft the younger Seager in 2018. His average could rebound to .300-.310 range, but if it doesn’t, we’re looking at a .295 floor here.

 

Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET)

Cabrera’s 2017 season was, to put it lightly, a complete and unmitigated disaster, at least on the surface. Miggy, arguably the safest pick in every draft every year, rewarded risk-averse fantasy managers with a .249 BA, 16 HR, and 60 RBI. Who could have seen this coming? Were there any indicators hidden deep in his profile? How can a career .317 batter hit .249 out of nowhere?  Perhaps surprisingly so, nothing in Cabrera’s profile suggested an impending demise, other than, say, his age.

His quality of contact stats didn’t budge in 2017. In fact, they even improved across the board. His hard contact rose, he hit more line drives, and his soft contact rate fell, too. Aren’t these good things? How’d he hit .249?

Cabrera’s contact rate ended up falling substantially. He was a tad less disciplined in the box, swinging at 50.5% percent of pitches, merely one percent higher than his career average. But is that really enough to explain such a drop in performance? Cabrera’s 2017 BABIP was .292, and when compared to his career .344 BABIP, we start to see positive signs. Cabrera wasn’t that much worse in 2017 than in past years. He was definitely underperforming in areas like plate discipline, but there’s no reason to think he can’t hit over .280 in 2018. Be sure to inquire about his availability in dynasty and keeper leagues, and don’t hesitate to draft him if he falls to you late in a draft. His price has never been this low. It’s buy-low time.

 

More Draft Strategy & Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Al Horford10 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White10 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl11 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon11 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter11 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic11 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio11 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday11 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton11 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid12 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray12 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert12 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James13 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez13 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis13 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Victor Wembanyama13 hours ago

Playing On Wednesday
Anthony Edwards13 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Garrett Mitchell13 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Aaron Nesmith13 hours ago

Back For Pacers Wednesday
Alec Burks13 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Chad Green13 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Mitchell Robinson13 hours ago

Returns For Knicks Wednesday
Erik Swanson13 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman13 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Dejounte Murray13 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
John Konchar14 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Vince Williams14 hours ago

Jr. Misses Another Game On Wednesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Expected To Face The Pelicans
Gleyber Torres15 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard15 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson15 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer15 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia15 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen15 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers15 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers16 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers16 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar16 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark17 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers17 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB18 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels18 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB18 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby18 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith18 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds18 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti19 hours ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga19 hours ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain19 hours ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim20 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA20 hours ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry20 hours ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox20 hours ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak20 hours ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan21 hours ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg21 hours ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn22 hours ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby22 hours ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin22 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord22 hours ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala23 hours ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark23 hours ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler23 hours ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Colton Cowser23 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Sam Ryder23 hours ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen24 hours ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama24 hours ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin24 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Yariel Rodriguez1 day ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson1 day ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Diamondbacks Agree On One-Year Deal
Amon-Ra St. Brown1 day ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff1 day ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins1 day ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
Jon Gray2 days ago

Dealing With Stiff Neck
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Throws Successful Live BP Session
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Shea Theodore2 days ago

Maintains Good Scoring Form With An Assist
Brock Boeser2 days ago

Hits Goal No. 37
Cam Talbot2 days ago

Collects Fourth Consecutive Win
Anze Kopitar2 days ago

Records Fourth Straight Multi-Point Game
Oskar Sundqvist2 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury
Elias Lindholm2 days ago

Sits Out Monday
Jonathan Marchessault2 days ago

Bags Overtime Winner Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Jarrett Stidham2 days ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
Edmen Shahbazyan6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Dobson6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Third UFC Appearance
Luis Pajuelo6 days ago

Makes His UFC Debut
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More


Players to Avoid Drafting in 2024 Best Ball

In my first article of the offseason, I highlighted four players to target in 2024 Best Ball leagues. In this article, I'll turn my attention to players you should avoid drafting in Best Ball leagues this season. There are lots of reasons to avoid a player in Best Ball, whether it's a new role, a... Read More


2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1 Predictions (Post-Free Agency Update) - Picks from All 32 Teams

We've now reached the point in the year where the disappointment of there not being any live football until the fall has subsided and hope has begun to renew for each fanbase heading into draft season. The first wave of NFL Free Agency has also passed and the rosters of all 32 teams have begun... Read More