Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Exit Velocity Risers/Fallers - Statcast Hitter Analysis (Week 22)


Exit velocity isn't everything. For example, even though we are looking strictly at data from the past month to identify late-season risers or fallers, Aristides Aquino comes in ranked 250th out of 393 batters on this list with an 87.2 MPH exit velocity. He's done OK for himself despite that shortcoming.

As always, this is a reminder that any individual metric should be taken in context and not used solely as a determining factor for measuring fantasy value. That said, these stats do have value by helping us find players who may be getting hot as the season winds down by making harder contact.

You know the drill - no Trouts, Bellingers, or other obvious names.

Editor's Note: Get our 2020 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our draft kit, premium rankings, player projections and outlooks, our top sleepers, dynasty and prospect rankings, 20 preseason and in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research and tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Exit Velocity Risers

All stats current as of August 25, 2019 and show results from the past 30 days.

 

Jake Cave (OF, MIN)

98.2 MPH exit velocity since July 28

Deja vu... In 2018, Cave was a non-factor the entire first half of the season and then jacked 10 homers over the last two months. In September alone, he drove in 21 runs while batting .277. This year, he's on a similar path. Although he's only got three homers and six RBI in August, he is batting an astronomical .452 with five doubles over his last 42 at-bats.

Cave isn't promised daily plate appearances in Minnesota but the fact he's not only scorching the ball but hitting .385 against lefties is a good sign that he'll stay in the lineup for the foreseeable future, making him relevant in 12+ team leagues.

 

Lane Thomas (OF, STL)

95.1 MPH exit velocity since July 28

Thomas is doing what Tyler O'Neill and Harrison Bader haven't been able to consistently do - get on base. So why has he been sitting, playing primarily as a pinch-hitter, in favor of someone like Bader who is batting .198? Defense. Bader has a great glove and Thomas isn't near his level.

Thomas is slashing a solid .324/.390/.703 with four home runs in 37 at-bats. This should warrant more playing time but for a team leading its division, they are more apt to play it safe and ride the bats of Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna. Bader and Dexter Fowler will keep blocking Thomas for playing time, but if Bader keeps struggling or an injury occurs to any outfielder, Thomas could become a priority waiver add.

 

Ryan McMahon (1B/2B, COL)

93.4 MPH exit velocity since July 28

McMahon has appeared in this space before, thanks to his season-long 91.5 MPH exit velocity that ranks in the 91st percentile, along with a 47.1% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 90th percentile. McMahon has been making solid contact all along. His exit velo has gone up a tick lately but it hasn't really brought different results. His .263 August average is right in line with his .265 season average. The power has increased slightly, with 10 HR post-break compared to seven beforehand. Still, this isn't a sign of a power surge because his launch angle is actually lower over the past two months.

Higher velocity is always good but it needs to be coupled with favorable batted-ball outcomes based on launch angle. Just ask Eric Hosmer.

 

Exit Velocity Fallers

All stats current as of August 25, 2019 and show results from the past 30 days.

 

Hanser Alberto (2B/3B, BAL)

81.4 MPH exit velocity since July 28

You probably didn't know his name or his game until a few weeks ago, so let me explain. Alberto is 10th in the majors in batting average despite ranking in the 2nd percentile in exit velocity and is practically dead last in hard-hit rate. He has a Tony Gwynn-like approach that compares closely to Josh Reddick or Cesar Hernandez among modern players. Alberto did hit .330 in Triple-A with the Rangers organization last year but he struggled mightily in his first couple of Major League trials, so it's a shock to see him hit so well. He has an aggressive approach, putting the ball in play 91.2% of the time in the zone. He has walked 3% of the time while striking out 9.1%. Repeated contact, be in weak or strong, will eventually lead to more base hits and it's worked out in his favor so far.

Sadly, Alberto left Sunday's game against the Rays with a bruised head and cervical neck strain. It's not clear whether this will keep him out of action long but mix the injury in with potential regression and a lack of extra-base hits and it could be close to the end of his 15 minutes of fame.

 

Justin Upton (OF, LAA)

84.3 MPH exit velocity since July 28

It's been a lost season for Upton and not just because he missed two and a half months with turf toe. Upton has struggled to a .213/.310/.404 slash line with 16 XBH over 51 games. His exit velocity is at a career-low (over five years of Statcast data) 87 MPH and his xSLG is down to .380. His strikeout rate is also up while his xBA is down nearly 50 points from his usual mark. All told, Upton has never really gotten in a groove and he's actually getting worse after the All-Star break. It's tough to part with a known commodity like Upton, fearing he could get hot any time, but he's only hurting you at this point.

 

Kris Bryant (3B/OF, CHC)

85.4 MPH exit velocity since July 28

I think I can officially kiss my KB 4 MVP campaign goodbye. Not that it's been a bad season but .281 with 26 HR and 64 RBI isn't exactly the stuff dreams are made of. He's been scuffling in August with a .238 average despite remaining fairly consistent with his power. Bryant's season-long 87.6 exit velo is up two ticks from last year, back to 2017 levels. It's not near his 2015-16 level of 89 MPH though. At age 27, some like myself thought we could see the best he has to offer now that he is healthy again. We may now want to consider that we already - it came three seasons ago.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




More Recent Articles

 

Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Conference Championships Matchups Analysis

Welcome to our NFL Conference Championships matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering both of the AFC and NFC contests from the Sunday slate, helping you make the best decisions for your DFS contests this weekend. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries... Read More


Conference Championships Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Running Back ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, a sure-fire player is expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they end up as a season-long dud, though,... Read More


Dynasty Players to Sell in 2020

Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano share their top sell candidates for dynasty football leagues in the 2020 fantasy football preseason. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Tight End

The 2019 NFL season was anything but predictable. I mean, the Tennessee Titans made the AFC title game! Andrew Luck retired right before the season! [Insert one of many, many other things here, because all lists need three items but I couldn't decide between all the possible third options.] One position where things at the... Read More


Wide Receiver ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward his owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Quarterback

The 2019 NFL season is over, and it's time to look back on what happened. 2019 was a year where some quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen -- leaped up to the top of the fantasy charts, while other guys faded from where they were expected to perform. Today, I want to talk about three... Read More


Four and Out: Fantasy Outlooks for Divisional Round Losers

For the four teams that were eliminated in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the offseason has begun. For many fantasy football owners, the days have already started counting down to next season. Owners in dynasty leagues have started to mull over their decisions.  How some guys perform in the playoffs can certainly alter... Read More


Quarterback ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More


Biggest Busts of 2019: Wide Receivers

After a very interesting season of fantasy football action, many owners were left with a bitter taste in their mouth from a few of the “elite” NFL wide receivers. While Michael Thomas dominated and Julio Jones was his usual reliable self, not all was good if you played it safe by taking a receiver early.... Read More


Quarterback Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

This article will examine the biggest risers and fallers at the quarterback position, which proved to be the most impactful in fantasy leagues as is often the case. Of the top-25 players in fantasy this season, 18 of them played the QB position and none of the 18 scored less than 280 fantasy points on... Read More


XFL Fantasy Football Rankings (Preseason)

As of this writing, there is exactly one month until XFL regular-season action begins. On February 8, the latest upstart professional league will kickoff (again) with spring football. It goes without saying that we hope it goes better than the first time, back in 2001, and lasts longer than the AAF. Before you settle in... Read More


Wide Receiver Risers and Fallers: 2019 Season Review

We continue our series covering the biggest risers and fallers of 2019 with the wide receiver position. I'll look at both 2018 and 2019 statistical outcomes from every player, contrast their performances, calculate differences in each category and come up with the most prominent names going forward. This past season, receivers didn't dominate in fantasy,... Read More