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Mock Draft Recap - Early ADP Reaches/Busts/Fallers


The Rotoballer crew recently finished up an early mock draft. As with every draft, there are going to be instances of guys going too early or too late.

This is all about those guys that we got a little too overzealous on when we grabbed them. You could have got them in the next round or even later. They're projected to have a big year, but they're going to struggle more than they succeed. Maybe in a few months, their value will even go down.

I'll say now that I'm far from innocent. I know I have at least one or two guys that will be on the list today because I didn't draft properly. Learn from these mistakes and avoid reaching on draft day. To check out the full draft board via Sleeper, just click here.

 

RotoBaller Expert Mock Results

 

Reaches

Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)

My first reach of the draft came after a quarterback run happened and I got overzealous thinking that I had to get an impact quarterback early. Watson was hyper-efficient during his rookie season, but he wasn't able to maintain that last season. His running ability gives him a high floor, but he's still playing behind a makeshift offensive line that didn't receive a ton of high-end upgrades during the offseason. With multiple quality quarterbacks available after him, I could have waited.

Additionally, his skill-position players have been largely inconsistent outside of All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Wide receivers Will Fuller and Keke Coutee haven't been able to stay healthy, and Lamar Miller hasn't been a beacon of health either. We aren't even going to discuss the tight end position. Watson is a great fantasy football quarterback, but taking him with some of the other guys that were on the board was a big reach on my part.

Mike Williams (WR, LAC)

After an extremely quiet rookie season, Mike Williams came into last season with a ton of hype as an elite downfield threat because of his combination of height and speed. He was a great red zone threat with 10 touchdowns but he's far from the top threat that he was billed as coming out of Clemson. If he lives up to the billing, grabbing him in the fifth round makes sense. The problem is that he hasn't been consistent enough yet to deserve being taken over guys like Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jefferey and Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones.

Williams has a high ceiling. With wide receiver Travis Benjamin still having a decent role and tight end Hunter Henry returning to take away red zone looks, he isn't necessarily a lock to be the number two threat on this team behind pro bowler Keenan Allen. Additionally, he only played 63.8 percent of snaps last season, he's being drafted as a WR2, but he was playing more as a WR3. Williams has a ton of value if he's featured, but that hasn't always been the case.

Jared Cook (TE, NO)

In the middle of the seventh round, we had seen seven tight ends come off the board. The only thing that has stopped Cook from being a stud throughout his career has been health. He's healthy, and he's with the Saints where he will likely be the third receiving threat in the pecking order. Despite that, taking him at that spot with some other tight ends on the board like Delanie Walker of the Tennessee Titans or even David Njoku of the Cleveland Browns seems early.

Everyone's strategy varies differently, but, after the initial five or so tight ends, there is a drop off to the next group that you can allow yourself to wait to get a decent threat at that spot. At this stage in his career, Cook just isn't the top-end athlete he might have been five years ago. He ranked just 20th among tight ends in separation at the point of catches, and he only caught 67.3 percent of the balls thrown his way. He'll be playing with Brees, which elevates everyone, but it's not enough to justify him in the seventh round.

 

Busts

Chris Godwin (WR, TB)

In this mock, Godwin went in the fifth round. He went ahead of guys like wide receivers Corey Davis and Alshon Jeffery, who are expected to be the number one targets in their offense. Godwin is likely going to be the number three target behind Pro Bowl wideout Mike Evans and tight end O.J. Howard. Godwin has been one of the biggest risers this offseason with the departure of teammate Adam Humphries. Without any elite traits or stats though, where is all the hype coming from?

Godwin outperformed his touchdown expectations last year with one more than expected. He doesn't create a ton of separation, and his average depth of target last year was only at 12.3. New head coach Bruce Arians' offense is predicated on creating explosive plays down the field. Quarterback Jameis Winston has the arm to make those throws, and he'll always be looking to push the ball. Godwin could have a good year, but he's being overdrafted right now.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)

This is more about what's expected to come for Hill than what we know thus far. If he doesn't receive any suspensions, Hill is a near lock to go in the second round of drafts. The problem is that it's far too likely he does get suspended or at least placed on the Commissioner's exempt list before the season. Washington Redskins running back Adrian Peterson lost a full season for what he did, and it's unlikely the NFL does hand Hill a similar if not the exact same fate.

Hill's explosive speed combined with the arm of his quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a match made in heaven. His downfield ability was some of the best in the NFL. His average depth of target, 10.8, ranked sixth in the NFL. Grabbing Hill in the fifth round could turn out to be an amazing value steal. It also could turn into a reverse Le'Veon Bell situation where he gets suspended and never returns, making it a wasted pick. If nothing happens, these two paragraphs mean nothing. If it does, don't say I didn't warn you.

Tarik Cohen (RB, CHI)

My second appearance in this article comes when I waited too long to get a second running back, and I forced myself to take one in Cohen. Cohen is a great option at the flex spot with some RB2 upside, but he's not consistent enough to be relied upon as my RB2. The Bears felt so strongly about Cohen as their lead back that they traded running back Jordan Howard to the Eagles just to draft a replacement to play alongside of him.

Cohen plays in an offense that manufactures touches for him. He had 71 catches last year, and he'll likely have even more this year with an expanded role. However, his role won't be expanded enough to justify taking him in the fourth round of the draft before guys like Mark Ingram of the Baltimore Ravens or even New England Patriots' running back James White that plays a similar role. Bottom line, don't get scared when a run happens that you end up reaching.

 

Future Fallers

Marlon Mack (RB, IND)

When rolling, Mack is a solid option with a ton of upside due to his big-play ability and playing in an elite offense. The problem is that he plays in an offense that features so many other talented players that he doesn't get the workload of a bell cow back. Mack isn't featured much in the passing game, with second-year running back Nyheim Hines doing the heavy lifting in that area, as he corraled 63 passes last season, which was more than triple the 17 that Mack had.

Mack went at the tail end of the second round. Some of the players that went after him include running backs Leonard Fournette of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons. Both are studs that carry nearly the entire workload in their backfields. Mack will be looking to build on his strong second season, but he's a player that should be taken in the late round-three range, which is where he will likely go during draft season.

Jordan Howard/Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)

One guy went with the fourth pick of the seventh round, and the other went with the eighth. As we get closer to draft season and the Eagles' backfield gets a little more clear as to who the lead guy is, one of these two is going to fall while the other will rise. Outside of New Orleans over the last couple of years, it's just nearly impossible for a team to support two RB2s or better. It's just hard for offenses to do, and the Eagles are not going to be the exception to the rule.

Howard has a running style that doesn't have a lot of frills, but he is effective with a solid 4.3 yards per carry average for his career. He'll get a lot of short-yardage situations while Sanders is more of your high flyer big play guy. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry in his career during college. They'll both be used a lot, and, if they're going to be used equally, both of them will fall. Otherwise, one of them will rise above the other.

Donte Moncrief (WR, PIT)

Moncrief has a ton of potential, but he's never been able to capitalize on it. He's been getting drafted highly due to the absence of former All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown. However, the two play such a different role that it's unrealistic to expect him to just step in and take those targets. He works down the field more to take advantage of his size, and Brown did more of his damage up close as evidenced by his 7.7 yards per target mark that was 60th among wide receivers.

Moncrief was taken in the ninth round of this mock draft ahead of guys that are projected to be the number one or two target on their team such as Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald or Devin Funchess of the Colts. Moncrief has one season over 700 receiving yards. His catch percentage has gone down every season since his rookie year. Moncrief is a solid player, but he'll likely finish in the WR3 or WR4 range this year.

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