RADIO
Welcome everyone to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 Valspar Championship. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you would like to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Valspar
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Valspar
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!
You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Copperhead | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 272 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 60% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 60% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.51 | 0.54 |
Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 6
Last Five Winners of The Valspar
| 2024 | Peter Malnati | -12 |
| 2023 | Taylor Moore | -10 |
| 2022 | Sam Burns | -17 |
| 2021 | Sam Burns | -17 |
| 2020 | Paul Casey | -8 |
Expected Cut-Line at The Valspar
| 2024 | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 |
| 2022 | -2 |
| 2021 | 0 |
| 2020 | 2 |
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
7,340 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded)
You can find my premium course breakdown in my premium DraftKings article this week.
You can find Ian McNeill's free breakdown here
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Corey Conners | 25 |
| Shane Lowry | 28 |
| Byeong Hun An | 70 |
| Ryan Fox | 200 |
Lowry and Conners were bet early on Monday.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Weather For The Week
You will hear this answer a million times before Thursday, but there seems to be a weather edge forming over the opening two rounds.
Players teeing off Thursday AM and Friday PM are likely to experience about half the wind that the opposite end of the wave will receive. We have seen the betting market massively push in that direction for matchups and outright wagers, and I would expect to see a similar sentiment occur in the space for DFS ownership. That is something I will continue to update inside of my model over the next 24 hours.
Personally, it does feel as if this shift has been a little too drastic for a course that rewards par golf and doesn't generate a ton of birdie opportunities throughout. I obviously would rather have the AM/PM split if all things were equal, but let's see where ownership trends by Thursday before we get massively caught in a wave that can easily get stopped if the PGA Tour decides to halt play because of gusty conditions.
Favorite Targets In The AM/PM Shift
Byeong Hun An ($8,200), Adam Scott ($8,300), Keith Mitchell ($7,800)
Most of the space will understandably jump near the top to want to roster Tommy Fleetwood or Sepp Straka after drawing the correct tee times for the week, but I still stand under the belief that the volatility of the course is going to reward a more balanced approach when we dive into names like Byeong Hun An, Adam Scott and Keith Mitchell.
As of this second (I assume we see this return change before Wednesday), here are the names who are currently under 10% ownership on DraftKings to be ranked inside the top 45 of my model:
Some of those targets are more enticing to play than others, but there is real GPP appeal if we can catch the market sleeping on any of those golfers above.
Favorite Targets In The PM/AM Shift
It was a sub-par draw with tee times when you consider the top four players in my sheet all got a PM/AM split.
This is an answer that we will dive into over the next 24 hours as we get better projections for where popularity has shifted, but I do stand by my original notion that some of these moves in the market have gone way too far.
Top 20 AM/PM When Combining Overall/Upside
Top 20 PM/AM When Combining Overall/Upside
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
