DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The ZOZO Championship With Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele and More Golf Advice (2023)

October 16, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The ZOZO Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The ZOZO Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The ZOZO Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 78
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 3

Last Five Winners Of The ZOZO Championship

Expected Cut-Line

Narashino Country Club

7,041 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bentgrass

Narashino Country Club is about an hour's drive east of Tokyo and features what I would call a claustrophobic design. We see substantial tree-lined intangibles present throughout, which creates the need for golfers to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs of the facility. Naturally, that puts extra credence in the bucket for accuracy over distance when talking about a 7,100-yard course that doesn't present a "bombs away" appeal. However, I do want to note that length isn't irrelevant if you try to think outside the box when making your model.

Most of the impactful scoring from either a production or avoidance standpoint will come when a driver is in hand. We have five par-four holes that range between 486 to 505 yards that will rank as the most challenging locations for the week. That answer presents nearly a 40% dispersion expectation when faced with the par-four locations, and we also have this intriguing ensemble of par-five setups that I always call 'Goldilocks and The Three Bears' when writing my article yearly for the ZOZO Championship. One is easy, the second is just right and the third is this 608-yard behemoth, which on average, yields a 21.9 percent birdie or better rate. That will be one of the lowest percentages you will see all season at any stop for a PGA event.

Unfortunately, research starts to go out the window from there because of the lack of trackable data on the course. It doesn't mean we can't extrapolate some of the minor details to account for the three-year duration of numbers we will have at the property. Still, I always keep things minimal from an exposure sense when the trifecta of limited data, no-cut contest and smaller field narrative pops to the forefront of the conversation.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Recent Ball Striking (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Driving + Approach + Putting (35%)

Strokes Gained Total Soft Greens + Fast Greens (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Scrambling (15%)

GIR (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

These limited-field contests during the fall can be challenging because they often feature a combination of two factors. For starters, the bottom of the board is typically inferior to a standard week. That can make many of these golfers priced near the bottom nearly unplayable for everyone creating DFS lineups. On top of that, it is more difficult to catch significant errors in pricing near the top when there are apparent gaps in talent. We see that second element front and center with Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im and Rickie Fowler all grading inside the top four of my sheet. 

In my opinion, you can't necessarily go wrong before ownership makes this equation more straightforward. I will rank the group: Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler and Sungjae Im, with Im likely being the odd man out on Monday afternoon. 

I don't believe we have a substantial gap if one of those four falls much lower than the rest for popularity. There is some edge from my data that would indicate Xander is the highest projected performer of the group, with Morikawa and Fowler possessing the most elevated ceilings outside of him.

I am sure nobody is shocked by that answer since I backed Morikawa and Fowler inside the outright market, but those are the four favorites for a reason and why I am planning to play Schauffele, Morikawa and Fowler in builds. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

The optimal structure of the board mostly continues here in the $9,000s, with all six golfers landing inside the top 15 of one of my iterations of the build.

I strongly considered an outright wager on Cameron Davis because of his recent form. Five top-10 finishes in the last six events should bode well for a golfer who ranked sixth in weighted scoring and eighth for recent ball striking. That was a profile we only saw get enhanced when considering he graded in the top 10 with his par-four scoring from 450-500 yards + expected par-five birdie or better percentage. 

I also liked the numbers for Sahith Theegala. I am curious to see if he goes under the radar because of his 57th-place grade for driving accuracy. Too much popularity makes me okay with the idea of pivoting elsewhere. Still, it is a potentially intriguing contrarian spot for a player who enters the week off his first victory during the Fortinet to begin the 2023 fall season.  

My ideal player pool at this point would be five-deep at the top with Schauffele, Morikawa, Fowler, Davis and Theegala. 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

If most lineups go with the mindset of landing under the top-heavy approach, there may be an ability to get unique with builds in the $8,000s. I find myself sitting here with over 48 hours to go before lock and not loving most of these options since I would rather pay up for what I deem to be better talents. However, Eric Cole, Vincent Norrman, Adam Svensson and Adam Schenk are all still inside my player pool for one reason or another. You can make a copy of my model to get a deeper understanding as to why each looks intriguing to ponder further.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

We can dive deeper into this entire group during my 'Final DraftKings' article.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

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