DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Wyndham Championship Golf Advice (2023)

July 31, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Wyndham Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Wyndham Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Wyndham Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 1

Last Five Winners Of The Wyndham Championship

Expected Cut-Line

Sedgefield Country Club

7,127 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

Sedgefield Country Club was designed by Donald Ross in 1926 but was re-modeled and toughened in 2007 by Kris Spence. The venue should be considered a straightforward par 70 that measures 7,127 yards and will reward plodders who can find the fairway off the tee. The greens are typical of a Ross design, featuring small surfaces and undulation throughout the property, and three-putt avoidance does come into play because of the speedy nature of the complex.

Eight of the par-fours measure between 400-450 yards. That is a significant rate that explains the 8.2% increase the event experiences with iron shots between 125-175 yards. Birdie or better percentage will play a factor since the event routinely plays around 20-under par or better, but this is a ball-striking course that demands excellence in finding fairways off the tee above all else.

I do believe trying to find comp courses that stretch under 7,200 yards is worth measuring because it may give us a better idea of driving accuracy since the full spectrum of that answer generates a wonky dispersion in expectation. However, Sedgefield is one of those tracks that does produce rollover predictability when we look into its ranking as one of the 12 most consistent venues on tour in yearly performance.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Strokes Gained Donald Ross (10%)

Weighted Putting (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Easy Scoring (10%)

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Strokes Gained Total Under 7,200 Yards (15%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

I don't believe starting in the $10,000 section is necessary this week. I am curious to see where ownership lands on Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley and Sungjae Im because they would be my preferred three options to consider, but it will come down to an ownership game.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Some of these smaller tournaments can possess weird boards. I tend to believe the best value in this event comes lower down the slate, but saving money is only worth so much if you have nowhere to use it. A lot of the week feels like that concept over and over again. I wouldn't be afraid to leave an inordinate amount of dollars on the table.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Stephan Jaeger ($8,900) 

The year of middling finishes for Stephan Jaeger continued at the 3M Open, as the 34-year-old produced his 11th-straight made cut to stay barely inside the top 70 of the FedExCup standings. Regardless of his finish at the Wyndham Championship, it is doubtful Jaeger would slip out of the playoff picture for next week's event. However, a top finish would go a long way in keeping him in the season and potentially the top 50 of the BMW Championship in two weeks.

Most of those concepts are detrimental to any player on the bubble, but Jaeger's skillset is ready to pop in a big way one of these weeks. The German ranked eighth in my model for expected strokes gained total, including a 47-spot increase in projected putting. If that facet of his game does come to fruition, the ceiling is exceptionally high.

Chris Kirk ($8,200) 

Chris Kirk has one of the safest profiles this week because he combines course history, form and stats better than most in the field. The American hasn't missed a cut at this event since 2012 (six straight attempts) and places inside the top five of my model for weighted strokes gained total, Donald Ross history and par-four scoring from 400-450 yards. That is a range that sees over 65% of the par-four locations.

Adam Hadwin ($8,000) 

It looks as if Adam Hadwin will be more popular than you would have thought for a golfer who has missed back-to-back cuts. I would monitor that situation closely because there is no point in using the Canadian if it turns into chalk-central, but I have no issues with his current 12.5%-13.5% mark.

Hadwin placed fourth in my model for weighted strokes gained total and seventh for weighted scoring, making him one of five golfers in that area for both categories. For transparency, the other four were Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Eric Cole and Hideki Matsuyama.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

Ben Griffin ($7,200) 

If you have access to BetOnline, I will be playing Ben Griffin -115 over Sam Stevens.

Consider this a bonus head-to-head pick that I usually don't include in my DraftKings article.

Stevens seems to lose some of his value because of the 2.6% reduction in proximity 175+ yards, adding to an already questionable return he is experiencing from under 7,200 yards. We can get more into that play in my Vegas Report + podcasts, but Griffin is a golfer I am going to be backing in a lot of iterations of the market because of his stellar top-to-bottom portfolio this week.

Alex Noren ($7,300) 

I am okay with most of the names in the chart above. We will see where ownership lands, but Eric Cole ($7,700), Taylor Pendrith ($7,500), Chesson Hadley ($7,000), Davis Riley ($7,100), Andrew Putnam ($7,200) and Billy Horschel ($7,600) are all options that I am including into my player pool on Monday afternoon. We would be here all day if I did individual posts on each golfer, but I will be backing each name if their ownership stays anywhere near where we have it.

I am not sure what else there is to say about Alex Noren since I can't seem to get him out of my player pool weekly, but this is the highest my model has been on him because of the massive increase he experiences in proximity from 125-175 yards.

If it doesn't work here, the only positive is that he can't derail my FedExCup run by not being in the field. I understand the trepidation for all the times Noren has burned us in the past, but value is value on a golfer that graded ideally for Sedgefield.

Once again, including Eric Cole ($7,700), Taylor Pendrith ($7,500), Chesson Hadley ($7,000), Davis Riley ($7,100), Andrew Putnam ($7,200) and Billy Horschel ($7,600) as early options I am using. 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

We will dive deeper into this section later in the week.

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