DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Valero Texas Open Advice With Patrick Cantlay, Denny McCarthy and More (2025)

Welcome everyone to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 Valero Texas Open. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.

New starting this year -- if you would like to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Valero Texas Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Valero Texas Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
• In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
• Units: +340.903 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2025
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record:
• (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles

• Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

Let's Look at the Stats

Field

Field Size: 147
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 3

Last Five Winners of The Valero Texas Open

Expected Cut-Line at The Texas Children's Open

TPC San Antonio

7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Bermuda Greens (Overseeded With Bent/Poa)

You can find my premium course breakdown in my premium DraftKings article this week. 

You can find Todd Mcgill's free breakdown here

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Favorite Targets Early On Monday

Patrick Cantlay ($10,200)

Some things never change. If there is a golfer who makes my outright card more than anyone on tour, it would be Patrick Cantlay.

We have seen that with me betting him to win a golf tournament 28 times since 2018 (29 if you count this week), with 27 of those outcomes landing as a failed experiment if we are talking about just the pure result of it being a win or a loss.

While that answer is going to spook anyone who sees another Cantlay discussion inside an article, including two times already this year, I do want to show that Cantlay is still a positive performer for me in the outright market because of the one victory I was able to secure on him at the BMW Championship during his last win on tour in 2022.

Now, I understand that the price at which we are grabbing him does make a significant difference. However, the more considerable note to this is that most of Cantlay's eventual wins or even the moments when I have decided to back him incorrectly have landed under one of two pretenses.

1. Strong around-the-green corollaries that suit his game for extended upside
2. TPC properties (that seem to be an ideal fit) because of what they do to his Expected Driving return within my model

That second point of the driver is something that shows front and center in my model when we dive into Cantlay climbing from 42nd over the last two years in this field for actual performance versus a 12th-place projection that sees him soar as high as second when we look into primarily TPC properties.

Add all of that to his quietly impressive 2025 campaign, which has him averaging 3.4 strokes per start with his irons over his last four attempts, and you get a golfer that the public always dismisses because of his failure in big moments in the previous three years.

Does that equate to a victory? Not necessarily...although I hope, at a bare minimum, we can get a buy-low spot on him at a heightened price for DFS purposes and can find leverage over the field on a golfer with a built-in floor for success at similar designs.

Denny McCarthy ($9,000)

While you don't quite reach elite status with Denny McCarthy on how he comps off the tee and approach for TPC San Antonio, you do receive a substantial improvement in his projection this week versus his baseline production elsewhere.

McCarthy climbed nearly 25 spots in expectation with his driver at the facility, and he graded as one of only three players to crack the top 35 in Weighted Proximity, Weighted Around The Green and Weighted Putting. The other two names were Eric Cole and Justin Rose.

McCarthy suffered heartbreak at this event last season after firing a back-nine 28 to get himself into a playoff but couldn't beat an injured Akshay Bhatia after McCarthy chunked a wedge into the water on the first playoff hole on Sunday.

Here is an image of Bhatia throwing his shoulder out during his celebration.

Sam Stevens ($8,000)

Of all the golfers with a $8,000+ price tag on the slate, my model thought Sam Stevens was the most mispriced option of the week.

Stevens has been stellar here in the past, producing back-to-back top-14 finishes, and the long-term data shows a profile of someone who tends to thrive at these longer setups.

Even though I didn't get to Stevens in the outright market, I found different areas to back him outside DFS, including as a head-to-head wager.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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