DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Shriners Children's Open Golf Advice With More (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Shriners Children's Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Shriners Children's Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 144
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0

Last Five Winners of the Shriners Children's Open

Expected Cut-Line At TPC Summerlin

TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bentgrass

They always say what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. However, those answers will become public knowledge when a tournament occurs 15 minutes from my home at a venue I have played multiple times.

I approach the space from a statistical perspective and have always used my mathematical background to derive blueprints and ideas. That isn't necessarily going to be upended here since the core of my being stems from the data I can find and extrapolate into my sheet, although there are many noteworthy explanations that can be formulated from seeing the venue in person throughout my life.

Beautiful Las Vegas scenery encompasses a venue that meanders through arroyos and canyons. Some of that layout will present semi-blind tee shots that players will need to maneuver through if they want to take advantage of the 13-yard increase in driving distance from a standard stop on tour. Most of that reason occurs because of the desert spirit that allows the ball to travel further off the tee, but for what you get aesthetically from a visual perspective and the unique qualities of the structure, you do lose on the opposite end of the spectrum regarding difficulty.

There have been some iterations of the contest that you can find over the years where the winning score has dipped into single digits, most notably in 2017 when heavy gusts ravaged the outcome for the week. That answer is worth noting because Vegas can always potentially create wind-bound issues. I did notice a shift in the temperature on Sunday (much colder nights) + the chance for wind over the weekend.

As I have noted over the years, birdie shootouts can sometimes be a numerical headache when we assemble our research. I have never been one who looks at the data and finds excitement in seeing the past five winning totals land between 20 and 24 under par. To me, that is boring golf that takes away some of the skills needed to separate the quality of a player on tour. Nonetheless, the scoring dispersion marks for putting tend to be at (or below) the PGA Tour baseline.

That means golfers who can take advantage of their tee-to-green game should have an advantage over the field.

We can explore this property more when I discuss the key stats below, but consider this a straightforward test that rewards a solid tee-to-green skillset while emphasizing most of the standard needs when playing golf in a heated, desert climate.

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Strokes Gained Total: Desert Golf (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring (15%)

Strokes Gained Total: TPC (10%)

Recent Strokes Gained Total (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 65 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

(Top 50 this week)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I am not 100% sure what to expect ownership-wise at the very top, but you would have to imagine that back-to-back defending champion, Tom Kim, will see enhanced support in the market.

I don't have anything negative to say about Kim, who ranks first in my model because of his first-place court history grade and top-three statistical marks. However, Taylor Pendrith could be shaping up as a slight discount in this $10,000 range after generating five top-22 finishes in a row, including four results landing in the top 13.

Pendrith's seventh-place grade for scoring at accessible courses blends well with that continued upside, making the Canadian someone to consider after getting in high-end reps a few weeks ago at the President's Cup.

It has not been uncommon for players in that contest to produce results shortly after that event. Kim is one of those prime examples after his victory here in 2022.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I've talked about this story before, but I started my own website in 2017 and covered all the events during the Fall before getting hired to contribute at RotoBaller in 2018.

One of the things I vividly remember writing during that time period was how Beau Hossler's first victory was going to come during the 2017 iteration of this contest, a tournament in which he did seize the opening-round lead next to J.J. Spaun before firing a Sunday 73 to fall to seventh.

We have seen similar examples over the years from Hossler at TPC Summerlin, including last season when he tied at the top with J.T. Poston, but it does feel as if that original proclamation of Hossler's first win might still be in play to happen in Vegas, perhaps just eight years after the fact.

Hossler has been great to start the Fall in 2024, posting back-to-back top-11 showings at the Sanderson Farms and Black Desert Championship.

I would argue that he should have been the victor at the Sanderson after dominating from a tee-to-green perspective. Still, whether we are talking 35/1 outright tickets or a likely popular choice for DFS, I will be spinning the jackpot wheel again on Hossler.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

There are three critical birdie or better ranges that players need to look into this week.

Those will be between 100 and 125, 125 and 150, and 200+ since the field experiences an almost 7.5% increase in importance over expectation compared to an average tour stop for those proximity buckets. 

I know this is going to end up being a chalky selection when you look into the historical data and recent form, but Harry Hall was the only golfer in this field to land in the top 25 of all three proximity buckets for birdie or better percentage. 

The UNLV and home course narrative will run rampant in the space, but there are massive reasons to play Hall beyond meaningless information. 

If you want to get different, I would take a deeper dive into Maverick McNealy. 

As a space, we always want to talk about McNealy when we go west, he gets on Bentgrass greens or he takes on a TPC property, but that sentiment might fall flat after the American has sputtered with back-to-back missed cuts to begin the Fall.

The form will leave much to be desired, but if you didn't want to play him because you thought he was overrated at 20/1 to start the year, you now get a rebate that drifts him to 55/1 because of the form. That was enough to bet on the top-ranked volatility score he had in my model, which will include top-five grades for Weighted Scoring, Projected Strokes Gained Total and TPC Success.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I am going to trust the model at the top.

My early lean is to find a decent amount of exposure toward J.J. Spaun, Chan Kim Patrick Fishburn and Ben Silverman. 

$6,000 Options to Consider

I am currently in on Rico Hoey, Chad Ramey and K.H. (TPC) Lee 

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Taylor Pendrith
$9,000+ - Beau Hossler
$8,000+ - Harry Hall (Safety), Maverick McNealy (GPP Upside)
$7,000+ - J.J. Spaun, Chan Kim, Patrick Fishburn, Ben Silverman
$6,000+ - Waiting for ownership (See above for names)

Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

***This still has time to change

$10,000+ -All are in play
$9,000+ - Keith Mitchell (There is upside)
$8,000+ - Jhonattan Vegas (Not a substantial take, just below everyone else)
$7,000+ - Gary Woodland
$6,000+ - Michael Block

Win More With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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