DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Genesis Invitational Golf Advice (2023)

February 13, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Genesis Invitational. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Scottie Scheffler made it back-to-back titles at last week's WM Phoenix Open, firing a final round 65 to get himself across the finish line.

For the American, it was his fifth career PGA Tour title and fourth since capturing his inaugural victory at TPC Scottsdale a season ago. That quick ascension after entering the winner's circle for the first time last year has helped propel him to another stay at number one -- making it his 31st week at that rank during his career -- and the schedule should continue to stay advantageous for the 26-year-old to restart his hot run when we look at the multiple contests he took down last season coming up on the agenda again soon.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Genesis Invitational

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Genesis Invitational Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 130 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 25 Entrants: 23

Last Five Winners Of Riviera

Expected Cut-Line

Riviera Country Club

7,322 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa

Measuring in as a 7,322-yard masterpiece, Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that plays longer than the yardage might indicate on the scorecard. Most of the distance is hidden with the par-five first and driveable par-four 10th playing substantially shorter than tour average, but that measurement is quickly made up at holes two, 12, 15, and 18, which gives you four of the most challenging par-fours on tour. These behemoths range from 26.3% to 31.8% bogey or higher rate. However, the challenge doesn't stop there, and you quickly see why only 12 golfers had broken a double-digit under-par total over the last four iterations of this event before last year's somewhat easier scoring output.

The venue is exceptionally tight off the tee, featuring doglegs in both directions and tree-lined fairways that will highlight why golfers are hitting the short grass nearly eight percent below a typical tour stop. The sticky Kikuyu grass that is used at two locations yearly (here and at Torrey Pines) adds to the chaos for those who miss the fairway, providing the potential for a flier on your second shot when you consider these greens are lightning-quick and tend to result in a GIR percentage roughly eight percent below a standard track. When we add to the mix undulation, deep bunkering, experience to know where you can lay up and quick Poa greens, you start to get an idea of why the best in the world show up as the A-list crowd to try and tackle the city built on stars.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

• Weighted Tee-To-Green (25%)
• 

• Strokes Gained Total Hard-To-Hit Fairways + Hard Scoring (12.5%)
• 

• Weighted Fast Poa (15%)
• 

• Weighted Scoring (20%)
• 

• Sand Save Percentage (7.5%)
• 

• Weighted Short-Game (12.5%)
  
• 

• Weighted Proximity 150+ Yards (7.5%)
• 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories:

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group: I actually think mostly fading this range is somewhat doable. I likely will pick one (or two) of the four and move forward in that fashion, but the two that have the most of my attention would be Jon Rahm $11,100, and Justin Thomas $10,100.

Jon Rahm ($11,100) - There is too much safety and win equity surrounding Jon Rahm to remove him entirely from player pools until something drastic comes into play. Early ownership looks doable at around 15%, and while the short-game metrics have some concerns, the high-end output totals in other areas will show why he remains one of the top options on the board.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group: 

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) - My model has honed in on Xander Schauffele and projects him as the most likely winner of the Genesis Invitational. As everyone knows, my sheet is relatively conservative in the number of times it will decide not to select Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, or Scottie Scheffler up top during an event they are entered, so the fact Xander has bypassed all three this week means something to me from a game theory perspective. I will likely find myself 2x (or higher) on any percentage we anticipate over the next few days, assuming it doesn't reach some unforeseen number where we need to reevaluate. 

Max Homa ($9,700) - You can take the kid out of California, but you can't remove his win equity in his home state? Is that the saying??? In fairness, Max Homa is the most likely of this group to be removed from my player pool before Thursday since I would rather play Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, or Tony Finau, but let's see where the projections go before making that final decision.

Tony Finau ($9,500) - I hate how sharp early projections seem to be right now in this $9,000 range. It is one of the reasons I would rather play only two of the three between Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, and Max Homa and try to get different from the masses elsewhere. Finau's three top 15 finishes here over the past five years should show the safety we want to see out of one of our high-end choices, and the American cracked the top 25 in six of the seven categories I ran for the Genesis.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,000) - We have witnessed course history be very impactful over the years at Riviera Country Club, making the string of top 17 results that much more impressive from one of the early contrarian choices on the board. Most gamers seem frustrated by Cantlay after his early-season start. However, the combination of California vibes and Poa greens will always be a reason to generate optimistic intrigue toward his chances for success. It is also important to remember that Cantlay entered the WM last week with over 20 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better before his mishap. That means the form is better than most realize, even if we are dating back to 2022 for some of that information. 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Early thoughts on the group: 

Viktor Hovland ($8,900) - If we are looking for spots to get unique with builds, many of those answers might take place in the $8,000 section. Hovland isn't the most natural contrarian route from the group since we are still expecting top-12 projected ownership returns. Still, the back-to-back top-five finishes at the track might be getting overlooked since most gamers want to pinpoint his sloppy short game and how it could become an issue. Some of the deeper bunkering inside the facility makes me hesitate marginally, but I always like his output when faced with a fast surface.

Tom Kim ($8,500) - It feels like Tom Kim is no longer the flavor of the month in the mind of DFS users. His current six percent projection makes him the lowest-owned player on the board on Monday afternoon. However, the statistics show a golfer that is potentially underpriced at his settled-in going rate. There is enough upside present for us to take a shot at anything sub-10 percent.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,300) - I let others dictate when I play Matthew Fitzpatrick. If he is popular, I will fade. And when he is under the radar, that is when I will use him in most situations. Fitzpatrick is among the best golfers in the world when given a challenging course, and the fifth-place result here in 2021 highlights the upside potential.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200) - For a golfer with no top 10 bullet points in my model, he just as quickly could have six in the top 16 if I stretched out the data a few spots. Maybe all of that suggests Matsuyama's win potential is a little lower than my model believes since he lacks the game-changing returns, but I wouldn't be shocked if he generates a top-10 result when all is said and done. At the ownership and price tag, that would be a massive return on our investment.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

Early thoughts on the group: 

We will get more into this group of players later in the week in my 'Final DraftKings' article. Sahith Theegala and Brian Harman would likely be my two favorite choices early on in the week.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.

We will condense this list further as the week progresses, but we have a handful of interesting dart throws from those names.

Early thoughts on the group: 

Alex Smalley, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Emiliano Grillo all provide intrigue at their sub-five percent rates. We will see who else enters the mix over the next few days.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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