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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on August 21, 2023. Casey Wilson's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
We're back at it on a Monday after another great game at Bowman Field and the Little League World Series. That is one of my favorite events of the year. Combined with the LLWS, it’s an incredible time of the year. Tonight I’m calling our slate, the one with a ton of lefties, as we have eight left-handed pitchers toeing the rubbers for their teams tonight. We have underwhelming options on the mound tonight, so it’s essential to find the matchups we like and take some shots on names we usually wouldn’t.
I will cover the eight-game slate starting at 7:05 pm in this article. I love tonight's slate from a game theory perspective. We have no shortage of offense on tonight's slate, and pitching is once again hard to come by. I like taking some shots on some big-time offenses in good spots and punting pitching. There are a few offenses who are cheap-facing hittable arms, but at the end of the day, give me the big bats that I can trust, and I will take some shots on pitchers in good spots at an excellent price.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 8/21/2023 and the slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
I have decided to post my charts throughout the article that I have been using for DFS. I want to quickly explain the color coding and bolding so you can understand better. That is an elite play if you see bold capital letters and green. Bold letters with green are a great play. Bold letters with yellow is a good play. Bold letters with white are to be used to round out lineups. Letters that are not bold are to be used in MME only for player pools or to round out stacks in a single entry.
Luis Castillo, SEA at. CWS ($10,300 DK, $10,700 FD)
This was tough for me to write up Luis Castillo or Lucas Giolito here. Still, ultimately because Gilito is struggling a bit with form, I have decided to go with Castillo. I will say that the Reds have struck out at a 30.3% clip over their last 30 days against right-hand pitching. If Giolito can figure out how to get more outs, strikeouts undoubtedly have some upside, and there are plenty in this Reds lineup. Castillo has been so good since being traded to the Mariners last season. He has a 27.3% K%, 6.1% BB%, 3.23 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP on the season.
Castillo will get a matchup tonight against the Chicago White Sox, who have been a disappointment this season. The White Sox owns an 84 wRC+, .293 wOBA, .384 SLG, and a 23.4% K% against right-hand pitching. They made many moves at the deadline shipping off their best bat in Jake Burger. In August, the White Sox owned a 88 wRC+, .299 wOBA, .396 SLG, and 23.9% K%. Castillo is our safe SP1 on the board tonight, but I like Giolito just as much for the upside. I would make sure to get exposure to both tonight if possible.
Drew Rom, STL at. PIT ($4,000 DK, $5,500 FD)
As you all know, price is everything when it comes to DFS. When we get a pitcher making a big league debut at $4,000, it’s hard to look the other way, especially when there is strikeout upside. This is a DraftKings-only play for me at SP2 and someone I likely won’t have in my pool on FanDuel. Rom was one of three prospects acquired by the Cardinals from Baltimore in early August for Jack Flaherty. After two starts in Memphis for the Cardinals Triple-A affiliate, Rom will get the call-up for his major league debut.
In the last two seasons in Triple-A for the Orioles, Rom has floated around 26.0% K %, 1.60 WHIP, 10.0% BB%, 4.00 ERA, and 47.0% GB%. None of these numbers stand out, but his last two starts have dominated. In his two starts for Memphis since the trade Rom has gone five innings and struck out ten and six innings and struck out eight. He has allowed one earned run total in those starts.
He faces a Pirates team that, since the break, has a 59 wRC+, 24.0% K %, .198 AVG, .260 wOBA, and a .288 SLG against left-hand pitching. We don’t need much from Rom at a price, and with the matchup with a struggling Pirates team against left-hand pitching, I love this spot for value.
Also consider: Lucas Giolito, Allan Winans, Paul Blackburn
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Sean Murphy - C, ATL vs. David Peterson ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD)
Murphy and the Braves are in an excellent spot tonight against left-handed hurler David Peterson. On the Season, Peterson has allowed a .372 wOBA, .166 ISO, and a 46.7% Hard hit rate to right-handed batters. Over the last 30 days, the numbers have jumped to a .409 wOBA, .200 ISO, and a 46.7% hard-hit rate. He does have a 57.9% GB% to right-handed bats this season, but this Braves team hits the ball in the air a ton. Murphy has a 45.1% FB% on the season with a 188 wRC+, .455 wOBA, and a .625 SLG since the break.
Orlando Arcia - SS, ATL vs. David Peterson ($4,100 DK, $2,700 FD)
Let's stick in the same game here with Orlando Arcia, who has been arguably the best Braves bat against left-hand pitching all season. In 2023 Arcia owns a 196 wRC+, .466 wOBA, and a .677 SLG. He has six of his 14 home runs this season against lefties in a much smaller amount of at-bats.
I love this Braves team tonight, and if you play Rom, you have plenty of salaries to squeeze in the big bats in this lineup, especially with Arcia's value. Add in Murphy, and you solidify a catcher position. Peterson has a 16.9% BB% over his last 30 days, and putting people on base against this Braves lineup is a bad recipe for success.
Ha-Seong Kim - 2B/3B/SS, SD vs. Ryan Weathers ($4,700 DK, $3,100 FD)
Kim has had one of the most underrated seasons in big league history. He gets a matchup with his former teammate Ryan Weathers tonight. Since the break, Kim has a 246 wRC+, .533 wOBA, and a .735 SLG against left-hand pitching. Weathers on the season has a .398 wOBA, .221 ISO, and a 37.4% hard-hit rate against right-hand hitters. This Padres stack will go under the radar tonight, but when facing a lefty that walks many people, they make for one the best stacks on the board.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Julio Rodriguez - OF, SEA vs. Touki Toussaint ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD)
Julio Rodriguez is the hottest hitter on the planet. Over his last five games, he is 18-27 with two home runs, three doubles, and eight runs batted in. Since August 6, he has a 217 wRC+, .477 wOBA, and a .692 SLG against right-hand pitching. Add in the fact that Touki Toussaint has a .414 wOBA, .263 ISO, and a 66.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters over his last 30 days, and Julio Rodriguez is my top play on the board tonight.
Tyler O’Neill - OF, STL vs. Bailey Falter ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD)
Since re-joining the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill has recently found his grove against left-hand pitching. Since July 1, he has a 243 wRC+, .528 wOBA, and a .792 SLG. Bailey Falter has a .337 wOBA, .161 ISO, and a 43.8% hard-hit rate against right-hand hitters this season. O'Neill has five extra-base hits, including three home runs since the all-star break against the split. The price has not caught up to the production, making him an excellent value on tonight's slate.
Chas McCormick - OF, HOU vs. James Paxton ($4,500 DK, $3,600 FD)
McCormick gets a favorable matchup tonight against a left-hand pitcher in which this season he has crushed. McCormick has a 195 wRC+, .451 wOBA, and a .640 SLG against lefties this season. He has been even better in the second half. Since the break, he has a 270 wRC+, .582 wOBA, and a .811 SLG. Paxton has struggled against right-hand hitters over the last 30 days. He has a .389 wOBA, .279 ISO, and a 53.0% hard hit in that period. I look for McCormick and the Astros to have a field day with Paxton tonight at home.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Atlanta Braves vs. David Peterson
Favorite Plays: Sean Murphy, Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna
2. San Diego Padres vs. Ryan Weathers
Favorite Plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado, Gary Sanchez, Juan Soto
3. Boston Red Sox vs. Cristian Javier
Favorite Plays: Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Pablo Reyes, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo
4. Seattle Mariners vs. Touki Toussaint
Favorite Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Dylan Moore, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez
5. Houston Astros vs. James Paxton
Favorite Plays: Chas McCormick, Jose Altuve, Martin Maldonado, Jeremy Pena
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