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It's time for some weekday baseball, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another Wednesday DFS slate. The MLB season has been fun in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
With baseball games getting started early today, we're staring down a matinee main slate. I'll point out the standout plays, but with a robust 10-game group, there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/19/2023 and the slate locking at 1:10 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Max Scherzer, NYM vs. LAD ($10,800 DK, $10,200 FD)
Scherzer is the only true ace on this slate. He's always a popular play, but considering a brutal matchup with the Dodgers, the chalk will be less than it should be. See that bad matchup not as a situation to avoid but as an opportunity to roster an under-owned Scherzer. Sure, it's volatile, but nobody brings a higher ceiling than Mad Max. Taking chances like this is the surest way to the top of a GPP.
Scherzer stumbled through his first two starts. He rebounded nicely last time out with a scoreless five-inning performance featuring six strikeouts, one hit, and three walks against a loaded San Diego Padres lineup. Considering there is no discernable dip in his pitch speed or spin rates, it's fair to assume bad luck has plagued Scherzer early in 2023 -- and walks.
He posted a 2.29 ERA in 2022, including a 30.6% strikeout rate, 4.2% walk rate, and .339 xSLG. I trust that sample size more, especially given Scherzer's career body of work.
Justin Steele, CHC vs. OAK ($9,700 DK, $11,300 FD)
Seeing Steele's price listed this high is bound to elicit a double take. It is hard to imagine his price will consistently sit at this premium going forward, but it's worth spending up for today. Steele has dominated in the early going, posting a 1.42 ERA across three starts and 19 innings pitched.
That includes a demonstrated ability to induce consistently weak contact numbers, like an 85.4 mph average exit velocity, 4.3% barrel rate, and 27.7% hard-hit rate. Combine that with his strong 26.4% strikeout rate, and Steele's price doesn't seem like such an overpay anymore.
Setting aside Steele's strong performance on the mound this season, his opponent is the primary reason we're willing to swallow his cost. Oakland brings one of the weakest offenses in the league, scoring just 3.5 runs per game and owning a 0.94 ISO against left-handed pitchers. As a bonus, the Oakland Coliseum is a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. Steele is expensive, but he feels like the safest play on this slate.
Also consider: Martin Perez, Charlie Morton
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B, STL vs. Madison Bumgarner ($5,800 DK, $3,700 FD)
Goldschmidt might just be the worst thing a left-handed pitcher can see in this league. Last season, he posted an unbelievable .813 slugging percentage and .402 ISO versus southpaws. That included 11 home runs and 12 doubles through 112 at-bats. Conversely, Bumgarner surrendered 22 long balls and a .512 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters in 2022. Further, these two have history, and it's rather one-sided. Goldschmidt boasts a career 1.041 OPS against Bumgarner, racking up four home runs, five doubles, and two triples in 88 plate appearances.
Eugenio Suarez – 3B, SEA vs. Eric Lauer ($4,000 DK, $3,000 FD)
Last season, Suarez ranked among the league's best with a 14.8% barrel rate, alongside similarly impressive numbers like a .454 xSLG, 43.5% hard-hit rate, and .339 xwOBA. The mashing is nothing new, considering Suarez has blasted 31+ homers in four of the last five seasons, with the only exception being the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign (15 home runs in 57 games). He owns a career .496 slugging percentage and .234 ISO versus lefties.
Suarez will square off against Eric Lauer, who has struggled mightily against right-handed hitters. Lauer surrendered 24 of 27 total home runs to righties in 2022. He has picked up right where he left off, giving up four home runs and a .596 slugging percentage through three starts this year.
Mike Brosseau – 3B, MIL vs. Marco Gonzales ($2,400 DK, $2,200 FD)
If you're needing a near-minimum price piece, then Brosseau is worth a shot. He's mainly a platoon player but typically hits leadoff against left-handed pitchers, bringing a career .477 slugging percentage and .203 ISO versus southpaws. On the flip side, Marco Gonzales is one of the league's most prolific home run throwers. He surrendered 30 long balls last season, including 23 home runs to right-handed hitters alongside a .457 slugging percentage.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bryan Reynolds – OF, PIT vs. Austin Gomber ($6,200 DK, $4,400 FD)
There's some weather in the forecast for this game, so keep an eye on that in advance of lock. Assuming the game goes on as planned, Reynolds will be an excellent play. The Coors effect provides a well-known bump to offense, and so too will the matchup.
Austin Gomber struggles against right-handed hitters. He surrendered a .534 slugging percentage, .376 wOBA, and 1.76 home runs per nine innings to righties in 2022. For his part, Reynolds is off to a hot start this season. He boasts a .671 xSLG, .435 xwOBA, 19% barrel rate, and 42.9% hard-hit rate.
Teoscar Hernandez – OF, SEA vs. Eric Lauer ($4,800 DK, $2,900 FD)
Piggybacking off the critiquing of Eric Lauer above, Hernandez is going to be another great play from the Mariners' lineup. He has struggled to start off 2023. Last year, Hernandez was one of the league's elite mashers with a 92.6 mph average exit velocity, .501 xSLG, 53.3% hard-hit rate, and 15% barrel rate. He was exceptional against left-handed pitchers, posting a .648 slugging percentage and .363 ISO. Hernandez looks great in this matchup against Lauer.
Cody Bellinger – OF, CHC vs. Mason Miller ($3,300 DK, $3,300 FD)
Mason Miller is Oakland's top pitching prospect, per MLB Pipeline. He may end up being worth the hype, but there's always a good chance a rookie struggles during their major league debut. Miller is coming off a phenomenal 11-strikeout outing in Triple-A. Due to injury, he has pitched just 28 2/3 innings in his minor league career. That sample size comes with plenty of unknowns. In any event, it's unlikely Miller pitches deeper than five innings and Oakland brings a 6.01 bullpen ERA.
Bellinger is among several Cubs bats capable of taking advantage of Miller's inexperience. It's only a 16-game sample size, but he's been putting up his best numbers since the 2019 MVP campaign. Bellinger is slugging .537 against right-handed pitching with an overall 137 OPS+. He is striking out at just a 13.8% rate -- the best mark of his career. He offers power and stolen base upside.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Madison Bumgarner
Madison Bumgarner's dominant days are well behind him. He was regularly smacked around last season to the tune of a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, 43.2% hard-hit rate, .488 xSLG, 9.8% barrel rate, and a 5.53 xERA. Predictably, things are not looking any better in 2023, either. Unfortunately for Bumgarner, his struggles are particularly pronounced against right-handed hitting.
The Cardinals' lineup is stocked with power-hitting right-handed bats, headlined by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Altogether, the Cardinals own a .469 slugging percentage against southpaws. With a mix of premium and affordable options to choose from, finding some Cardinals stack to slip into your lineup should be very feasible today.
Favorite Plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Tommy Edman, Tyler O'Neill
Seattle Mariners vs. Eric Lauer
Eric Lauer's struggles with the long ball and right-handed hitting were covered above. To better illustrate just how bad he's been, Lauer ranks in the bottom-tenth percentile in each of average exit velocity (93.5 mph), xSLG (.578), hard-hit rate (50%), and xBA (.317).
While some of those numbers are likely due for some positive regression, the point still stands that Lauer is vulnerable on the mound. Stacked with right-handed hitting options, the Mariners are well-positioned to succeed in this spot. Full stacks, mini stacks, and one-offs are all great approaches to this lineup.
Favorite Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, AJ Pollock
Also Consider: Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
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