RADIO
We have a small four-gamer on the DraftKings main slate tonight, featuring a BKN/GSW game with an unavoidable 243.5-point implied total and a little sneakier game to target in IND/ATL. MIA/UTA looks somewhat appealing as well while HOU/NY has a 209.5-point implied total (34 points less than BKN/GSW).
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 2/13/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. With COVID-19 a significant factor globally, remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before line-up lock.
Good luck RotoBallers. Let's get to it!
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Stephen Curry - PG, GSW vs. BKN ($10,100)
Curry is very hard to avoid in this spot. He has been in MVP-frontrunner form over his last seven games, topping 67 DK points on three occasions in that span and scoring 57 real-life points four games ago (2/6 @ DAL). He's averaging 49.6 DK points on the year and needs 50.5 DK points to reach 5x value, which seems likely given his form and the tasty matchup. Brooklyn ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency against points guards and they allow the third-most DK points per game to the position, in addition to allowing the second-most made shots per game overall. They have been even worse on defense since the Harden trade and that doesn't seem likely to improve against the white-hot Curry and the Dubs. This game has the highest projected pace and total by a mile and you should play the two-time MVP tonight on DraftKings.
Malcolm Brogdon - PG/SG, IND vs. ATL ($7,500)
Brogdon has not been shooting the ball well recently, but his contributions in the peripheral stats and team-high usage rate (27.9% with the projected lineup) have allowed him to maintain a solid floor regardless. He did shoot 42.1% on 19 shots in his last game and he's still taking between 15-20+ shots per game, so we don't have to worry about his volume dropping off. That being said, this is the perfect spot for a blow-up game out of the guard, and at a tidy mid-range salary too. The Hawks rank dead last in DK points per game allowed to shooting guards, giving up a league-high 64.74 DK points, 2.79 steals, and 1.25 blocks per game to the position. It projects as a neutral game for pace, but the contest notably has the second-highest total on the slate and the Pacers have the highest team total (113.5) for any team outside of the BKN/GSW shootout. Sign me up.
Jordan Clarkson - PG/SG, UTA vs. MIA ($5,400)
Clarkson seems a bit underpriced in this spot. He needs 27 DK points to reach 5x value tonight and his season average is 28.9 DK points. He put up less than 25.5 DK points in three games prior to last night's 40.5 DK point outburst, so his drop in salary makes some sense. However, he's taking 14.23 shots per game this year and has a 27% usage rate (1.11 DK points per minute). Those rates are extremely encouraging at his price, and he gets the added bonus of seeing a majority of his playing time playing with (and against) second-unit players. Tons of upside and a relatively safe floor at this price.
Bonus G: Jeremy Lamb ($5,100), John Wall ($7,100),
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
Domantas Sabonis - PF/C, IND vs. ATL ($9,000)
Sabonis has monster games in him given the right circumstances, and this is one of those circumstances. He's coming off a 58.5 DK point gem against the Pistons when he put up 26/8/8 with two blocks and three steals. He's a versatile big man who's capable of filling up the stat sheet, and this feels like a steal of a DraftKings price in literally the best matchup opposing frontcourts can ask for. The Hawks allow the most DK points per game to opposing centers (by about 5 DK points per game on average) and while the Pacers have Turner at center, Sabonis plays like a big and will have no trouble navigating the Hawks' defense in this one.
Jae'sean Tate - SF/PF, HOU vs. NY ($4,700)
Oladipo was out last game, as he will be tonight, and Tate was the top value play on the Rockets with his 29.75 DK point performance. That was good for 5.95x value and he'll have a great shot at approaching that value again tonight. The Knicks have embraced the Thibs way and are now surprisingly good on defense, and this game does have a low implied total of 210 points, but we have to find value plays somewhere. His usage rate is abysmal but his DK points per minute rate jumps to a reasonable 0.86 with Wood and Oladipo off the floor this season.
Kevin Durant - PF/C, BKN vs. GSW ($9,600)
You're probably going to want a stud on the Nets side with this game having the highest total and fastest projected pace of the night. KD is my pick and it shouldn't need too much explaining - he's just really productive and at a solid sub-$10k price tag. Throw in a 26.3% usage rate and 1.2 DK points per minute with the starting five of himself, Irving, Harden, Green, and Harris and you have a core play on tonight's slate.
Bonus F: Danilo Gallinari ($4,500), John Collins ($7,300), Joe Ingles ($5,700)
DraftKings DFS Centers
Rudy Gobert - C, UTA vs. MIA ($7,100)
The pricing doesn't make a whole lot of sense here with Gobert. He's coming off three straight games with at least 43 DK points and posted 50.5 DK points with a 27/12 (four blocks) line in his last game. His salary went down by $400 as a result. The Heat are very solid defensively against bigs, allowing the fifth-least DK points per game to opposing centers and seventh in DvP, though they're "only" 11th in defensive efficiency against the position. Gobert is not a high-usage player (18.4%), but he leads the team with a 1.27 DK points per minute rate. Those rates climb to 20.2% and 1.35 DK points per minute when Mike Conley is off the floor, so boost Gobert if we get word that the veteran guard is inactive tonight.
Bonus C: Myles Turner ($5,800), Nerlens Noel ($3,900), Derrick Favors ($3,300)
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