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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/14/21. Euan Leith's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! It's Friday, which means we'll get the most extensive slate of the week on our plates to kick off the weekend. There are 13 games on tonight's featured contest and plenty of aces, high-priced bats, and discounts to fill our DFS lineups. As of this writing, there is little to no possibility of a rainout in any game. The only thing to note is the strong winds in Dunedin, Florida, where it could be blowing as strong as 14 miles per hour.
We've got Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, all priced at $10,000 or higher in terms of pitching. At the same time, the middle tier ranges from Zack Greinke ($9,500) to Joe Musgrove ($8,700). There are a few arms below Musgrove that I could see playing (I recommend one of them, below), but with the amount of value on the board with the bats, it could be a night to double-dip in the high-priced pitching market.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/14/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Max Scherzer - P, WAS at ARI ($10,700)
Coming into 2021, some people were asking if Max Scherzer could still be an elite pitcher. Well, over his first seven starts, the three-time Cy Young award winner has answered with a resounding yes. Scherzer is twirling a 2.33 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and a 35.5 percent strikeout rate on the year. In four of his last five starts, the right-handed hurler has gone at least six innings and stuck out nine opponents while producing at least 31 DraftKings fantasy points. Scherzer's competition, the Arizona Diamondbacks, don't strike out as much as we would like to see versus righties (23 percent). Still, their 94 weighted Runs Created plus shows they are below league average and do minimal damage against right-handers. Scherzer's year-long and recent form is more than enough for me to lock him in as my SP1.
David Peterson - P, NYM at TB ($7,400)
The middle class of pitching on tonight's slate gives me a bit of headache, but I'm rolling with David Peterson as my SP2 recommendation. In 2021, the southpaw is throwing to the tune of a 5.54 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. However, the advanced metrics show he's been a bit unlucky through his six starts. Currently, his xFIP sits at 3.16, and he's rocking a 3.53 SIERA with a 28.6 percent strikeout rate. For context, those numbers are very similar or better to Sandy Alcantara and Clayton Kershaw, two pitchers also on the Friday slate but far more expensive. Peterson has shown he can have a big game because he has two outings with at least eight strikeouts and produced 34.3 fantasy points in Philadelphia on Apr. 14. Plus, the Rays strike out 32 percent of the time, and their .637 OPS versus southpaws is the seventh-worst rate in the league.
Other options: Tyler Glasnow vs. NYM ($10,900), Clayton Kershaw vs. MIA ($10,000), Joe Musgrove vs. STL ($8,700)
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Andrew Knapp - C, PHI at Steven Matz ($2,500)
J.T. Realmuto (knee/illness) is yet to return for the Phillies, and if he's out Friday, it will mean another start for Knapp. His season-long line is certainly nothing to write home about (.490 OPS), but he's shown some positive signs in his last three games. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Knapp went 3-for-6 with four RBI and averaged 8.5 fantasy points per game. There aren't many backstops on the slate at this kind of discount playing in, legitimately, a Triple-A ballpark. Even batting seventh, the Phillies should have plenty of runners on the basepaths up and down the lineup to possibly give Knapp a chance at some counting stats.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B, TOR vs. Vince Velasquez ($5,700)
The Vlad we've all been waiting for seems to have finally arrived at the majors. In his third season, the former top prospect mashes the baseball all over the diamond, especially at Dunedin's friendly home confines. Admittedly, Guerrero Jr. has been a bit quiet in his last 10 games, but that should change over the weekend. In 11 "home" games, Vlad is slashing .405/.460/.757 for a 1.317 OPS with eight runs, a double, four home runs, and 15 RBI. Tonight, he will see Vince Velasquez and his 24 percent home run to fly ball ratio in this home-run-friendly park. Fire up Vlad every game this weekend, and he's bound to pop off in at least one outing.
Jose Altuve - 2B, HOU vs. Wes Benjamin ($5,500)
There may not be a hotter hitter on the planet right now than Jose Altuve. I said it on Monday, and I'll reiterate it here: something woke him up in New York. Since that final game of the three-game series in the Big Apple, the 2017 MVP is 14-for-36 (.389 batting average) with six runs, two doubles, three home runs, and eight RBI. Over those eight games, he's averaging 12.6 fantasy points per game and silencing some of the early-season worries surrounding the second baseman. The Rangers are throwing out southpaw Wes Benjamin tonight against an Astros lineup with the fifth-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.778) in the entire league. With the way Altuve is hitting, he will be on base multiple times and just needs his teammates to drive him in for another excellent game.
Alec Bohm - 3B, PHI at Steven Matz ($2,900)
It feels like DraftKings is begging us to play Bohm with a $2,900 price tag. I understand the young third baseman is having a rough start to the year, but it could be a lot worse. In 38 games, Bohm has accumulated 16 runs, eight extra-base hits, and 20 RBI. He will have the opportunity to bump those numbers up during the weekend series in Dunedin. He will see left-handed Steven Matz on the mound, and it will give Bohm the advantage to rectify his disappointing first quarter of the season. For his career, Bohm has a .863 OPS versus lefties compared to a .704 OPS to right-handers.
Francisco Lindor - SS, NYM vs. Tyler Glasnow ($4,900)
Maybe this is pushing my agenda (I roster Lindor in the majority of my season-long leagues), but it feels like Lindor has to turn this around at some point. His track record is too long to be this bad all of a sudden, and I'm putting some good vibes into the world by recommending him. Plus, he will be an excellent leverage play versus the extremely popular Glasnow. While the season-long .283 slugging percentage is quite ugly, Lindor is showing signs of life in the last six contests. The two-time Gold Glove winner is slashing .400/.500/.600 with six runs, a double, a home run, four RBI, and two stolen bases. We may be catching the talented shortstop in the middle of an upswing, and his low roster percentage could be a fantastic addition to your DFS squad.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Jesse Winker - OF, CIN at German Marquez ($5,600)
COORS!!! Thanks to some incredible value on rookie bats (see below), we can slot Winker into our lineups with ease. He is a man on a mission this season. Through 29 games, the left-handed bat is slashing .371/.430/.655 with 25 runs, 18 extra-base hits (10 home runs), and 20 RBI. Playing any Cincinnati Reds player at Coors will be an enticing option, but Winker is just on another level right now and isn't priced like his teammate Nick Castellanos ($6,300). He's got three multi-hit performances in his last four games and is 8-for-17 with four runs, three doubles, a home run, and three RBI during this stretch.
Jarred Kelenic - OF, SEA vs. Aaron Civale ($2,000)
There's no scenario in which Kelenic isn't in the majority of my lineups on Friday night. Yes, he will be chalky, but $2,000 for a leadoff hitter with this kind of top prospect is a gift that we won't have lying around for much longer. While he went 0-for-4 with a strikeout in his MLB debut last night, there is no reason to fade one of the best hitting prospects in the game. Seattle told us the kind of confidence they have in their guy by putting him up top, and they think he can produce immediately. Although I'm glad he got that week in the minors to work on his defense *sigh*.
Trevor Larnach - OF, MIN vs. Frankie Montas ($2,000)
Larnach seems to be on the same trajectory as fellow-Twins prospect Alex Kiriloff. Both struggled a bit in their first few games, but then a couple of doubles proceeded a weekend power breakout for Kirilloff. Well, Larnach has doubled in back-to-back games, and now it's the weekend. Yeah yeah, narrative smarrative, but it's something I noticed. Regardless of the symmetry, Larnach is still only $2,000 on DraftKings. While pairing him and Kelenic together would give a lineup many variances (more than MLB DFS already does), it does enable players to go huge at other spots in their lineup.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers (Wes Benjamin, LHP)
- Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser, RHP)
- Game stack: Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning, RHP) at Boston Red Sox (Nick Pivetta, RHP)
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