Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball? Ivan Melendez, Marco Luciano, Coby Mayo, Adam Mazur, more

July 26, 2023

Benjamin looks at top MLB prospects risers for fantasy baseball Week 18 (2023). His minor league hitters and pitchers to know as fantasy and dynasty sleepers.

The halfway point of the season led to a number of major league and minor league promotions across baseball. Already, players like Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, Endy Rodriguez, Quinn Priester, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Prelander Berroa, and Sal Frelick have made their major league debut since the All-Star break.

Beyond the major league debuts, many players have moved up a level in the minor leagues, most notably 2022 top overall draft pick Jackson Holliday, who has already reached Double-A. In this week's six-packs, we will cover a half dozen hitters and pitchers that have been moved up a minor league level since the All-Star break.

Look here for insight on potential fantasy baseball dynasty league pickups before they hit and to get to know players as they ascend to the major leagues!

Top Hitter Prospects

Statistical highlights:

• Doubles: 1. Devin Mann 33, 2. Coby Mayo 32, 3 (tie). Jake Cave/Alberto Rodriguez/Austin Callahan/Brooks Lee 30.
• Stolen bases: 1. Chandler Simpson 69, 2. Victor Scott II 59, 3. Jonatan Clase 53, 4 (tie). Forrest Wall/Tyler Black 45.

Hitter Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack

Ivan Melendez, 1B/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

After crushing 45 home runs in 126 college games at the University of Texas, Melendez was selected in the second round last summer by the Diamondbacks. Despite a rough beginning in his pro debut (.206/.358/.351 slash), when he did connect, he crushed three home runs in 29 games.

Melendez was viewed by many as a first-base-only player, having only played first in his draft season with the Longhorns, but he's worked hard on his physicality and been able to play more games at third (48) than first (45) thus far in his minor league career. No matter where he's played this season, he's crushed baseballs, with 42 extra-base hits in 65 games.

Melendez was promoted to Double-A on July 13, and he's knocked out six home runs in seven games since the promotion, albeit in arguably the most hitter-friendly home park in the minors. His biggest issue at the plate this season is a high strikeout rate (34%).

VERDICT: While he's always hit baseballs a long way, Melendez has never had a huge strikeout rate, so this year's surge is not at a worry point...yet. He is definitely a deep dynasty player to own, and the more he works at third, the more of a must-own he becomes in shallow dynasty as the power is absolutely legit.

Alberto Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017, Rodriguez had played two seasons in complex ball before being the return for Seattle's trade of Taijuan Walker to Toronto at the deadline of the 2020 season. His first full season in 2021 gave some indication that he would offer a balanced approach at the plate, with a .289/.379/.470 line across both A-ball levels, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 15 bases.

Rodriguez slipped some in a return to Everett in 2022, and the Mariners sent him back to the level to open 2023, and he really found his stroke, slashing .306/.393/.580 with 11 home runs before his July 14 promotion. He's only played a pair of games at Double-A thus far.

While a stout build (5'10", 220+ pounds), Rodriguez is less a home run power guy as he is an all-fields approach hitter, spraying gap hits with authority. This has led to 30 doubles already in 2023, which fits his profile, as he's now tallied 111 doubles in 401 career minor league games.

VERDICT: Rodriguez may not be the headline offensive prospect in the Mariners system, nor even the top outfield prospect, but he's the type of guy who is simply steady with the bat. No need to run out to roster him now, but he is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, and what the Mariners do should say a lot about his future.

Darell Hernaiz, SS, Oakland Athletics

The Puerto Rican-born Hernaiz was drafted by the Orioles in the fifth round of the 2019 draft out of high school in Texas. He showed strong on-base skills in his draft season but then lost the 2020 season to the pandemic.

Returning in 2021 to play his first full season, Hernaiz struggled to produce power at Single-A, but he began to produce more gap power and use his speed in 2022, slashing .273/.341/.438 with 12 home runs and 32 steals across three levels, finishing in Double-A.

Hernaiz was the return for the Athletics in the deal that sent lefty Cole Irvin to Baltimore. He's done nothing but hit in the A's system, slashing .338/.393/.486 in 71 games in Double-A before recently being promoted to Triple-A, where he's collected 11 hits in his first 34 at-bats.

VERDICT: Hernaiz is a smart base stealer, but his overall speed is merely above-average, so expecting high steals totals is probably a misnomer. Darell has excellent bat-to-ball skills, and while he may be a bit stretched in range at short in the majors, he's absolutely got the hands to stick up the middle defensively, potentially at second. High-average flyer once he's called up, but no need to own him right now.

Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox

Jordan was one of the most "famous" draftees in the 2020 draft after torching 500+ foot home runs in the showcase series the previous summer. He reclassified to be one of the younger players in the 2020 draft, going in the third round to the Red Sox out of the same Mississippi high school that produced Atlanta All-Star Austin Riley.

Jordan's first task was to clean up his body, listed at 6'2" and 225 pounds at draft time. He's notably changed that, and while his Baseball Reference weight is still 220, he's notably more svelte in his build, likely dropping 20-30 pounds of fat and adding on 5-10 pounds of healthy weight. This has allowed him to split time nearly even between first base and third base this season.

Though he had a big power reputation, Jordan's first full season in 2022 showed more gap power than over-fence power, with 30 doubles and 12 home runs across both A-ball levels. He returned to High-A Greenville this spring, but he's shown significantly more thump, powering out 13 home runs and 24 doubles so far this year with a .317/.378/.522 combined slash line after being recently promoted to Double-A.

VERDICT: Jordan is certainly a "sexy" name that prospect fans will know, so he may be rostered already in leagues (owned in 25% of Fantrax leagues). He's still figuring things out at the plate, but the Red Sox have already moved the 20-year-old to Double-A, so he should be owned in deep dynasty and a strong watch in shallow dynasty.

Marco Luciano, SS/3B, San Francisco Giants

Luciano was on track to potentially be the top overall prospect in the game after his impressive pro debut in 2019 that saw him crush complex and short-season ball as a 17-year-old, slashing .302/.417/.564 with 25 extra-base hits in 47 games. Then the pandemic year wiped out a year of development.

The raw power was still present in 2021 as Luciano played across both A-ball levels, but he struggled with strikeouts at times and finished with a .258/.344/.471 slash line. Injuries destroyed his 2022, leaving him with just 65 games, though he did hit 11 home runs in that time with a notably better strikeout rate.

Luciano opened 2023 in Double-A after being out due to injury until May, and the season-long numbers aren't pretty, but he's been on a heater since June 6's series opener against Altoona, hitting .291/.393/.528 with seven home runs over 34 games, earning a promotion to Triple-A that just began with last week's series against Tacoma.

VERDICT: While there are concerns about whether Luciano will be a shortstop long-term, he has strong hands at the position and a big arm, so even if he has to slide over to third base, he should be an excellent defender there. The power is worthy of dreaming on and makes him a must-own in all dynasty formats.

Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

Meeting Mayo, one may have thought that he was better constructed to play NFL tight end than MLB third base at 6'5" and 225-235 pounds. He was originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2020 draft and signed to an above-slot $1.75 million bonus. He then impressed many in his pro debut in 2021 by hitting .319/.426/.555 over 53 games with nine home runs.

Mayo's arm is a legit weapon on defense, but he's already showing signs that he is going to outgrow third base. He's played a dozen of his 80 defensive games this season at first base. There's certainly a good chance that the Orioles give his strong arm a try in the outfield at the Arizona Fall League or in fall instructs to potentially play him as a corner outfielder going forward.

Mayo got off to a slow start this season, hitting .222/.317/.361 with just one home run over his first two series of the season, covering nine games, but he has exploded, especially since June 1, crushing 11 of his 18 home runs this season since June 1. He was promoted to Norfolk on July 14.

VERDICT: The Orioles have a glut of excellent position prospects that are in AAA or making their first mark in the majors. Mayo has more raw power than any of them. He could fetch a huge return during the trade deadline, but he most likely will be up next season. He's a must-own in all dynasty leagues.

Top Pitcher Prospects

Statistical highlights:

• Wins: 1. Nick Avila 12, 2 (tie). Emerson Hancock/Jonh Henriquez 11, 4 (tie). John Michael Bertrand/Drew Thorpe 10.
• Strikeouts: 1. Connor Phillips 134, 2 (tie). Wikelman Gonzalez/Drew Thorpe 124, 4. Angel Bastardo 119, 5. Cade Povich 118.

Pitcher Prospect Outlooks: Fantasy Six-Pack

Chayce McDermott, SP, Baltimore Orioles

A fourth-round selection of the Houston Astros out of Ball State University in 2021, McDermott made a big impression in his draft season, striking out 40 over 21 1/3 innings while posting a 2.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and reaching full-season ball.

McDermott was in the midst of an up-and-down first full season with High-A Asheville when he was sent to the Orioles as part of the three-team trade that sent Trey Mancini to Houston and Jose Siri to Tampa Bay. He did well in his time in the Baltimore system after the trade, finishing with a high 5.56 ERA for the season, but striking out 160 over 103 2/3 innings.

Opening this year in Double-A, McDermott struggled with his location at times, but he produced 88 strikeouts over 68 1/3 innings. He was promoted to Triple-A after the break, and he's struck out 11 over eight innings in two starts with Norfolk.

VERDICT: McDermott works with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s along with a curve and slider that can flash plus and sit above average. He has an athletic family, with a brother that played in the NBA. He can work as a mid-rotation starter, but his control and change will both need to improve for that to work. No reason to add him currently in dynasty, but the strikeout ability is worth tracking.

Adam Mazur, SP, San Diego Padres

After striking out 106 over 88 1/3 innings with South Dakota State and an impressive showing at the Cape Cod League, Mazur transferred to Iowa, and a strong season for the Hawkeyes led to the Padres snagging Mazur in the second round. After pitching 93 2/3 innings for Iowa, Mazur sat out the rest of the summer, but he made waves at fall instructs.

This season, San Diego started Mazur at High-A, and he had a tremendous first half, posting a 2.02 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 58 innings. He was promoted to Double-A and has struggled over 4 2/3 innings, though he's struck out seven.

Mazur has seen his fastball tick up to a mid-90s offering that can touch triple digits in short bursts. His slider is an upper-80s sharp-breaking pitch that flashes plus, and he can land his 12-6 curve for weak contact or swing and miss. The tick-up in raw stuff has not caused any issues with control, as Mazur has posted a ridiculous 4% walk rate.

VERDICT: With four usable pitches, two of which show plus quality, Mazur has the makeup of a mid-rotation starter. He is a deep dynasty grab only right now, however, as he's still yet to show his ability at the upper levels of the minors.

Kevin Abel, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Abel posted one of the most impressive freshman campaigns in recent history on the mound, leading Oregon State to a title while striking out 108 over 81 1/3 innings, culminating in picking up four victories at the College World Series, including the clinching game for the Beavers over Arkansas. However, since that freshman year, Abel suffered through injury after injury, with Tommy John surgery in 2019 and then back issues over his recovery.

Abel was selected in the seventh round in 2021, and Cincinnati has eased innings onto his arm, tossing just 38 2/3 innings in 2022, but striking out 66 in that time. He opened 2023 in Single-A, earning a recent call-up to High-A Dayton, posting 63 strikeouts over 43 2/3 innings.

Abel has regained his fastball, sitting 92-94 with excellent late movement, but he has not yet regained control of the pitch. His best-performing secondary is a change, but he also has a curve and cutter that could work significantly better if he would land them for strikes.

VERDICT: It'd be a good story to see Abel back to a viable starter again to put a better ending on his first burst into the public eye. However, your fantasy team is not a place to host him while he figures it out.

Tyler Owens, SP, Atlanta Braves

If Owens were 6'3" instead of 5'10", he'd have been selected in the top three rounds in 2019 with the raw stuff that he showed as a Florida high schooler. The Braves bought him out of a commitment to the University of Florida after picking him in the 13th round.

Owens has shown strikeout stuff in his minor league career, but his command has been a challenge throughout. This season, he's taken a step forward, going from a 9.8% walk rate before this season to a 5.6% rate this year, recently earning a promotion to Double-A Mississippi.

His fastball has worked up to 95-97, touching 98 with a plus slider that sits 88-91. He also adds in a mid-80s knuckle curve and a low-90s change. All of those numbers are notably up from what he was doing in 2021 after working with the Braves' development team.

VERDICT: Whether Owens will work as a starter is yet to be seen, but despite his smaller frame, he pumps strong quality pitches and has been keeping the ball in the zone better now. Not a guy who needs to be picked up YET, but keep an eye on how he handles the Southern League for the rest of the season.

Matt Litwicki, RP, Boston Red Sox

After an incredible career with the University of Indiana, Litwicki was selected in the 10th round of the 2021 draft by the Red Sox. Though he was excellent when he was on the mound for the Hoosiers, he struggled to stay healthy, pitching a total of 31 1/3 innings over three seasons, but striking out 32 and posting a 1.05 WHIP.

Litwicki did not make his pro debut until this season, and even then, not until June. His results have been rough, with an 11.12 ERA and 2.29 WHIP with a 5/5 BB/K ratio over 5 2/3 innings, but he did recently get a bump to Single-A to make his debut with a full-season team.

When he's fully healthy, Litwicki has a fastball that sits 93-96 and can brush triple digits. His fastball is a high-spin pitch that works tremendously well up in the zone. He pairs that with a sharp, low-80s slider that can flash plus.

VERDICT: Most fantasy relievers can be left alone until they reach the majors, but even more so with a guy who has an extremely risky profile like Litwicki. He does have tremendous raw stuff when he's on the mound, so it's fun to cheer for and watch when he's healthy.

Steven Cruz, RP, Kansas City Royals

The Minnesota Twins signed Cruz out of the Dominican at 17, a year older than the typical Latin signee, but the 6'7" righty had a body that could be dreamed of, though he struggled to locate, walking 61 over 86 1/3 innings in short season work from 2017-2019. No one could put a bat to his ball, though, allowing just a .201 opponent's average in those lower levels.

After the pandemic, Cruz came back, primarily working as a reliever, but striking out hitters at an intense rate, with 152 strikeouts over 106 innings in 2021 and 2022 in the Twins organization. He was then part of the deal that brought Michael A. Taylor to Minnesota over the offseason.

Cruz runs his fastball up to 101 and pairs that with a low-90s slider that gives him a pure power combination from his tall frame. After an impressive start to this season in Double-A, Cruz was promoted to Triple-A Omaha after the All-Star break.

VERDICT: Cruz's raw stuff is incredibly impressive, but he needs to be able to locate that stuff. No need to roster him right now, but keep a very close eye on him. If he works his way to the majors as he could very well be a high-strikeout reliever if he can control the ball enough to make it to the majors.

Check back again next week for more evaluations and look behind the numbers!

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