7 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Dan Palyo's 2025 Picks

March 23, 2025

Dan Palyo's 7 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Spencer Schwellenbach, Juan Soto, Matt McLain, and more.

Who doesn't love some preseason bold predictions? I usually try to avoid making extremely hyperbolic statements and predictions and tend to focus more on grinding the data to find the answers I am looking for, but what fun is that?

"Go big or go home" is what they say, right? If you're going to be a tout in this business, then you have to put your neck out there and be prepared to be wrong almost as often as you're right. Here are some of my hot takes for the upcoming 2025 fantasy baseball season - take them for what they are and draft accordingly!

You can also read other bold predictions from RotoBaller's MLB team as part of our yearly Bold Predictions series.

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Matt McLain Hits 30 HR and Steals 30 Bases

This is pretty bold, considering that most projection systems have him around 20 HR and 18-20 steals. For my prediction to come true, we need to get a full season out of McLain, who made a big splash in 2023 by hitting 16 home runs in his rookie year and swiping 14 bags before missing all of the 2024 season with an injury.

⚾️ Matt McLain - 2025 Outlook

• Tantalizing upside 📈
• Power to all fields 📈
• Bat-to-ball skills worry me a little bit, but he hits the ball hard + can find the barrel, which tends to make flaws in other areas less important

Appreciate you @PDXHeater 👊 https://t.co/miuZbTcHxd pic.twitter.com/ycdj2hrwu2

— The Commish (@CommishFilmRoom) March 15, 2025

He did 16 HR and 14 steals in 403 plate appearances in 2023, so the projection systems are simply factoring in similar production per plate appearance and adjusting for 500-550 plate appearances this season. What they aren't factoring in here is a potential big boost that we see from sophomore sluggers as they get more MLB experience.

McLain's situation is a bit more complicated since he missed an entire season and he may take a little while to settle in this year, however, I think he has the skills to be a 30/30 player and I'm drafting him as such as I think he's a major value at an ADP of 93.

He had a 28% K% in 2023, but he made a lot more contact throughout the minors, and if he can bring that number down in the low to mid-20s, he's going to hit for a really solid average. He destroys the baseball when he does make contact and had a 39.6% LA Sweet Spot% in 2023 (94% percentile). That kind of power swing from a middle infielder isn't typical, and getting to play half of his games in the HR-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark will certainly help aid those power numbers.

He also has a 90th percentile sprint speed. He swiped 27 bases in 103 games at Double-A in 2022 and 28 bases in 129 games between Triple-A and the majors in 2023. We know the Reds let Elly De La Cruz run as often as he wants, and I wouldn't be surprised if they let McLain be aggressive on the base paths, either.

McLain is a five-tool player with eligibility at SS and 2B. He's going to hit in the middle of a pretty good Cincy lineup in a park that is nearly as good as Coors Field for offensive stats. Everything lines up for him to have a huge season if he can stay healthy!

Brandon Woodruff Returns From Injury To Win 12 Games With a Sub-3.50 ERA

The Brewers must be thrilled with the prospect of getting one of their aces back in the rotation this year. Woody missed all of the 2024 season after shoulder surgery and would have given the division-winning Brew Crew another high-end arm they needed come playoff time to avoid an early exit.

When healthy, Woodruff has been an elite pitcher since 2019. He has a career ERA of 3.05 and a career WHIP of 1.05. He's had a K% of 29% or better in five straight seasons while never walking more than 7% of hitters for a career K-BB% mark of 22.4%.

Brandon Woodruff hits 95 multiple times — including on this inning ending grounder — and strikes out one in his first big league spring game.

Big Woo is back. pic.twitter.com/B7Uo4EOr00

— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) March 16, 2025

Everything with his rehab seems to be going well and while the Brewers are being cautious with him, he's on pace to be ready to go sometime in May once he has completed a 30-day rehab assignment in the minors. That would mean he could be in line for 25 MLB starts. I like his chances of winning about half of those games while being a nice help in ERA and WHIP.

He's throwing 94-95 on his fastball, which is close to where he was before the injury. He never relied on just high velocity for his effectiveness either, he has a solid arsenal of pitches that includes two different breaking balls (curve and slider) as well as a changeup.

Woody is poised for a big bounceback year and I think people are sleeping on the Brewers in general. They're not flashy but they're a good bet to be competing for the NL Central title once again this season.

Jake Burger Hits More HR Than Mark Vientos and Junior Caminero

There's some palpable buzz about the 20-year-old Caminero's first full season in the majors, and I get it - the kid has all the tools to be a future MLB superstar. But betting on rookies to break out in redraft leagues is not usually a winning formula. Sometimes, our excitement about young players and our love for them in dynasty formats easily bubbles over and inflates their ADP in redraft formats.

I think that's happening with Caminero, who has seen his ADP shoot up into the 70-80 range. Between his minor league production and the Rays' new upgraded hitting environment for this season at Steinbrenner Park, I think many people are buying into a huge season from Caminero.

But let's not forget that he was hurt for much of the 2024 season, playing just 102 games between Triple-A and the majors last year. He appeared in 124 games in 2023 between the minor leagues and a short 7-game stint with the Rays to end the season. I'm not saying he's injury-prone, but his durability has yet to be established.

Caminero's MLB numbers so far have been underwhelming across his first 200 at-bats, and he's slumping badly in spring training. I'm fading him everywhere.

Vientos at least has last season's production to lean on. He smacked 27 home runs in 111 games for the Mets, and I will go on record as saying that I prefer him to Caminero at around the same ADP at the third base position.

But I like Jake Burger better than both of them! Burger's ADP is slowly catching up, but he's still being taken around 15-20 spots later in drafts despite being 1B/3B eligible and having smashed 63 home runs over the last two seasons in Chicago and Miami.

Jake Burger - Texas Rangers (1)* pic.twitter.com/dw6ZPVi7rE

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) February 27, 2025

Burger has trimmed his K% down by a few points in the last two seasons while maintaining his power. If we project his career HR per plate-appearance numbers out over 600 PA this season, we get 32 home runs, which is right in the middle of where most projection systems have him (range is 26[steamer] up to 34[OOPSY]).

Burger's average will likely hover around .250, but I think he delivers 30+ home runs with ease and outproduces both Vientos and Caminero in the power department. He's been a major target of mine in drafts.

Cody Bellinger hits .285 with 30 HR and 90 RBI

Don't look now, but Cody Bellinger is having a fantastic spring, slashing .465/.511/.765 with three home runs. See, Yankees fans, I'm going to make it up to you here with a pro-Bellinger stance that will perhaps soften the blow of watching Soto win the MVP in a Mets jersey and having to go the entire year without watching Gerrit Cole take the mound.

Cody Bellinger will hit 3rd and will be the primary hitter behind Aaron Judge in 2025, per @JonHeyman #Yankees pic.twitter.com/hcD9HUBjsg

— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) March 21, 2025

Bellinger's left-handed pull-heavy power bat should play quite well in Yankee Stadium. While some may worry about his durability, he played 130 games for the third straight season last year.

He struck out only 15% of the time during his two seasons in Chicago and is at 12.8% through 47 spring plate appearances. He's now hitting third for the Yankees behind Judge and with Paul Goldschmidt behind him in the cleanup slot. He should see plenty of pitches to hit, and he's shown to be a more selective hitter in the last several seasons. He's just one season removed from hitting .307 with 26 HR. I think we will see a nice bounce-back year from Bellinger in terms of hitting for both average and power.

Spencer Schwellenbach Finishes as a Top-5 Starting Pitcher

I am not sure I have been this high on a starting pitcher in a long time. I was all over Tarik Skubal last season to have a big year, but he wasn't a total surprise, either. I cashed that Cy Young ticket and had him in several leagues, which paid off in a big way. Can the pitcher we affectionately know as "Schwelly" take a Skubal-type leap this season into the elite tier of starting pitchers?

Maybe referring to Schwelly as this year's Skubal is a bad comp. This year's Skubal is Cole Ragans for me - the guy being taken in the fourth round who has first-round upside. No, Schwellenbach is set to take an even bigger leap - from being drafted as SP20 to finishing in the top five.

Just Spencer Schwellenbach making Shohei Ohtani look silly with his Splitty no big deal or anything pic.twitter.com/m2x6JVMghJ

— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) March 5, 2025

I'm here to grease the wheels of the Schwelly-hype train a little more - why not? I want to be on the right side of history - as I was with Ragans and Skubal last year. Schwellenbach may only be entering his second MLB season, but he was so impressive as a rookie, and he demonstrated a lot of skills that were "beyond his years" in terms of his control and varied pitch mix.

This wasn't just a young, live arm, blowing fastballs by hitters at 100 mph. This was a pitching savant demonstrating that he already possesses the wisdom to be a great pitcher in addition to having above-average velocity and movement on his pitches.

I wrote a bit more about Schwelly here in this article, specifically his ability to get hitters to chase pitches outside of the zone with his breaking balls and splitters. 24-year-olds who throw six pitches and can get swings and misses on all of them don't just grow on trees, you know?

While the ADP is on the rise, you can still draft Schwelly comfortably ahead of where I think he will finish. I haven't left a draft without him yet, even if it meant taking him in the 60-70 range, even while his ADP is still around 90. He's not doing those of us who would like to keep him our little secret with the dominant spring training he's having.

A bit here, but WOW was Schwelly dominant yesterday!

🔥6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10K - 78 pitches

⚾️27% SwStr%
⚾️Average IVB on 4-seamer = 17 inches (+4 from last season)
⚾️CSW% of 40% or better on all SIX pitches!
⚾️46% O-Swing%
⚾️71% Z-Contact%

Get your Cy Young tickets now! pic.twitter.com/TkudA1GzQS

— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) March 20, 2025

Those numbers are just silly. And yes, I know it was against several backups and players who won't make the Yankees roster. But those gaudy advanced metrics prove he's already in midseason form and ready to become an ace.

Juan Soto finishes as a Top-3 Hitter, wins NL MVP

Perhaps this isn't as bold as you're looking for. I was told by a Yankees fan that "he better win the MVP, considering how much money the Mets are paying him." That sounds like sour grapes to me, as the Yankees, deep down, know that they would have much rather had Soto crushing bombs in the Bronx for the next 10 years than watch him succeed across town.

Juan Soto just hit his fourth spring homer in only 22 at-bats. He's batting .409. pic.twitter.com/ty4seXKUjw

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) March 14, 2025

He's hitting .333 this spring with four home runs and nine RBI. Oh, and that's with an OBP of .425 and a SLG of .758. Last year, he was phenomenal, launching a career-high 41 dingers while driving in 109 runs. He cut down on his strikeouts while increasing his launch angle and barrel rates - resulting in a career-high in homers.

The idea that Yankee Stadium's park factor helped to boost his HR total can be easily debunked, as his expected HR was the same for Citi Field. And for those who think hitting ahead of Aaron Judge helped Soto see better pitches to hit, he's now going to be hitting ahead of Pete Alonso and behind Francisco Lindor, so you could argue he will have even more RBI opportunities and better lineup protection.

He's still 26 years old and entering the prime of his career. I think we forget how young he still is because of how absurdly young he was when he broke into the league. This guy is an elite hitter who could easily win the Triple Crown, and the idea that he will slow down for any reason seems silly to me.

Bryan Woo and Cristopher Sanchez both finish with sub-3.00 ERAs

This is my last chance to hype some of my favorite pitchers for the 2025 season. I already have a whole lot of Schwelly hype, but my other big flag plant this year is on Cristopher Sanchez, who I think could provide top-50 value despite being taken after pick 150 in most drafts.

Sanchez has seen his ADP steadily rise throughout February and March as he's looked dominant this spring, adding velocity to his sinker and demonstrating the same fantastic control he has shown the last two seasons. I maintain that his changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball and I think we see his K% jump from the 21% range up into the 25% range this season.

>30% K% and <5% BB% in ST:

-Tylor Megill (NYM)🎥
-Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
-Corbin Burnes (ARI)
-Landen Roupp (SFG)
-Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)
-Kenta Maeda (DET)
-Hayden Birdsong (SFG)

Great to see these guys in the zone and getting K’s early on!
pic.twitter.com/9vkdxoM40V

— Hagen Snell (@HagenSnellBB) March 17, 2025

I think Bryan Woo is set for a huge campaign of his own over in the American League. He missed some time with injuries last year but was still uber-effective, finishing with a 2.89 ERA across 121 innings.

Woo was still tinkering with pitch mix and saw his strikeouts per inning dip last season, but he seemed to fix his issue with lefties (by throwing more changeups and fewer sliders and sweepers) who had teed off on him in his rookie season of 2023.

So far this spring, the strikeouts are back (15 in 12 innings) while the run prevention (2.25 ERA) is still there. He doesn't have to overpower hitters to be effective as he sits around 94-95 mph on his fastball and sinker. He gets above-average arm-side movement on his four-seamer, sinker, and changeup while also throwing a filthy sweeper that breaks nearly 14 inches horizontally. The sweeper had a 41% whiff rate last year and a .100 batting average against.

Both pitchers are (maybe not so quietly) poised for big seasons and I plan to have more than a few shares of each across my fantasy teams come opening day.

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