Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): WGC Match Play

March 23, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his WGC Match Play DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Matt Jones handily won at the Honda Classic, capturing the title by five shots over Brandon Hagy. We had seen the Aussie trending in the right direction with 11 made cuts over his previous 12 events, and it was something we were able to pinpoint in the article last weekend when discussing the tournament.

While Jones didn't stick out as a prototypical target with a ton of value at his 28th-place total on my DFS 'Rankings Wizard' tool, I was drawn to some of his more recent form when I took a deeper dive into his stats. As always, feel free to change the numbers around in the model when you make a copy of your own, and you might be surprised with the golfers that show improvement with a little extra alteration of the data! The sheet is built to be used in a comprehensive way that allows user input, and it is always fun to see how the rankings change when you add in different factors.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - WGC Match Play

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Austin Country Club

7,182 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded With Poa/Bent)

It will be challenging to find a ton of concrete information for this week's WGC, as the strokes gained metrics are virtually non-existent at Austin Country Club. The reason for this stems from the event being a match play contest, which means most holes aren't played to completion, and overall scoring isn't an important factor.

Many DFS players eliminate their chances of winning from the very start by picking golfers from the same quadrant, and it is going to be vital to give yourself a chance by selecting a lineup that provides the entire group with an opportunity to meet in the elite eight. From there, we are looking to create a pathway to get four of those into the final four, and while that task will be anything but simple to execute, I wouldn't be afraid to leave some dollars on the table in my construction. In my opinion, this might be the one tournament where salary means very little, and a big edge can be found if you are able to connect on a handful of the last few names standing.

There are 110 bunkers at the property and five water hazards, and golfers that have shown a propensity to handle a Pete Dye venue should have an advantage. I believe mental fortitude and quality putting should also hold a slight edge, but the formula for coming up with the variable of measuring the first factor is anyone's best guess. I've noticed in the past that handicapping this tournament is made easiest when you take this one group at a time, so try to start from the top and slowly work your way through a bracket. You might be surprised at some of the ideas you form when you pencil in names round-by-round.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau lead the way at 12/1 and are followed by Jon Rahm at 14/1, Dustin Johnson at 16/1 and Collin Morikawa at 18/1

Key Stats

• Weighted Birdie L100 12.5%
• Weighted Par-Four 12.5%
• Strokes Gained Putting 10%
• Strokes Gained Total Pete Dye L50 10%
• Strokes Gained Total Moderate to Severe Wind 10%
• Weighted Par-Five 10%
• Putting from 5-10 Feet 10%
• Weighted Proximity 10%
• Bogey Avoidance L100 7.5%
• Weighted Par-Three 7.5%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

WGC Match Play Groups

Group 1 - Dustin Johnson ($11,500), Kevin Na ($7,100), Robert MacIntyre ($6,500), Adam Long ($6,000)

It was an extremely favorable bracket reveal for Dustin Johnson, who drew one of the weaker groups for the week. The initial thought-process might be to pencil the big-hitting American into the Sweet 16, but I have some concerns for his chances. For starters, Johnson is dealing with the death of his grandfather, and he hasn't appeared to have his best form in recent weeks. It is hard to find a natural pivot spot for those attempting to leverage ownership, but Kevin Na does carry some match play pedigree to rival Johnson if he doesn't bring his A-game to Austin CC - as well as Robert Macintyre because of his sheer unpredictability. Consider Johnson the most likely winner of the first group, but I don't believe this is as much of a foregone conclusion as the rest of the public.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Kevin Na (Good pivot)
3. Robert MacIntyre (Worth a dart)
4. Adam Long (LONG Shot)

Group 2 - Justin Thomas ($11,200), Louis Oosthuizen ($8,100), Kevin Kisner ($7,600), Matt Kuchar ($6,700)

Welcome to this year's group of death. Three of the four players in the pod carry a positive expected value for me in terms of projection, and the one that doesn't, Justin Thomas, is your likely winner of the group. Matt Kuchar's recent form is probably too big of a hindrance for me to expect him to get out of the region, but it still doesn't help narrow down Kevin Kisner or Louis Oosthuizen - two of the top three golfers for me in win percentage in their small sample size at the venue. For as much as I want to advance Thomas, his putter might burn him during one of the three round-robin days, and I will most likely try to pivot onto Oosthuizen at the discount.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Justin Thomas
2. Louis Oosthuizen (My preferred pivot)
3. Kevin Kisner (Has another shot to advance)
4. Matt Kuchar (Group seems too hard)

Group 3 - Jon Rahm ($10,700), Shane Lowry ($7,100), Ryan Palmer ($7,000), Sebastian Munoz ($6,100)

I believe Ryan Palmer will be the preferred pivot option for most that are trying to get rid of Jon Rahm early, but the draw felt like a favorable one for the former finalist of this event. Shane Lowry does have upside to spring an upset, and we have seen Sebastian Munoz go nuclear on Thursday before. If he can carry that mentality to the opening tee on day one against Rahm...you never know. However, I have a hard time losing the favorite in his group stage.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Jon Rahm (Most likely of the big names to advance)
2. Shane Lowry (could easily flip the bottom three)
3. Sebastian Munoz
4. Ryan Palmer

Group 4 - Collin Morikawa ($10,400), Max Homa ($7,400), Billy Horschel ($7,200), J.T. Poston ($6,300)

Despite the inexperience of never competing at Austin Country Club, Collin Morikawa wasn't done any disservice by drawing a group that only had one player with any match play record here - Billy Horschel (2-3-1). That should be viewed as an optimistic outcome if you are looking to back the young American, but there is some hidden danger lurking. Poston ranks fourth in the field in putting, Homa has been one of the hottest players in the world over the last few months and Horschel has the game to provide trouble for anyone in a match-play competition.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Billy Horschel (Good sleeper)
3. J.T. Poston (Can his putter catch fire for a few days?)
4. Max Homa (Wheels might be coming off)

Group 5 - Bryson DeChambeau ($10,900), Tommy Fleetwood ($7,800), Si Woo Kim ($7,300), Antoine Rozner ($6,200)

Statistically, this was the weakest group of the 16 for me in my model. Part of the reason for that is Bryson DeChambeau's poor rating that was given for his one match play attempt here in 2019, but I would probably advise altering some of the data if you are running a model of your own. Si Woo Kim's Pete Dye skills and Tommy Fleetwood's potential are probably the most realistic threats to DeChambeau not advancing.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (Second most likely of the big names to advance)
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Tommy Fleetwood (Could swap Si Woo and Fleetwood)
4. Antoine Rozner

Group 6 - Xander Schauffele ($10,000), Jason Day ($8,400), Scottie Scheffler ($7,900), Andy Sullivan ($6,000)

We get a very difficult foursome here for group 6 - or should I say threesome? Andy Sullivan is not the spot in the bracket where I would get cute in trying to pick an upset, but there doesn't seem to be much to separate Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler and Jason Day. I kind of like the appeal to Xander because of the contrarian nature he brings to brackets, but any of them could find their way out.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Xander Schauffele (Extremely small margin between Xander, Day and Scheffler. Could go any direction)
2. Jason Day
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Andy Sullivan (Pass)

Group 7 - Patrick Reed ($9,600), Joaquin Niemann ($8,000), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600), Bubba Watson ($7,400)

Consider this one of the most underrated groups for the WGC. There aren't many regions where all four feel like they have a chance to advance, but we will have to take a stand with someone. Patrick Reed is probably a little overrated with his match play skills, although he should be considered the favorite. Bubba Watson appears to be carrying the upside of his victory here in 2018 when we look at ownership totals, and it seems like Joaquin Niemann and Christiann Bezuidenhout both possess the potential to sneak their way into the next round.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Patrick Reed
2. Joaquin Niemann (I have a gut feeling Patrick Reed slips up somewhere in this group. Very difficult three matches for all. I lean Niemann but wouldn't blame Bezuidenhout).
3. Christian Bezuidenhout
4. Bubba Watson

Group 8 - Tyrrell Hatton ($8,600), Sergio Garcia ($8,300), Lee Westwood ($7,700), Matt Wallace ($7,000)

Another underappreciated group, the European flair is oozing from all sectors of this foursome. Sergio Garcia is going to. be the popular choice for those looking to advance someone not named Tyrrell Hatton, but I kind of like Matt Wallace as the hidden gem of the group. Hatton's potential is probably too much for me to ignore, but there are other routes worth considering.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Tyrrell Hatton (A favorite I like backing)
2. Sergio Garcia (Public loves Sergio)
3. Matt Wallace (Under-the-radar sleeper)
4. Lee Westwood (Westwood might be trending in the wrong direction now)

Group 9 - Webb Simpson ($9,100), Paul Casey ($8,900), Talor Gooch ($6,600), Mackenzie Hughes ($6,100)

I feel like I've been down this Paul Casey chalk road one too many times. The consensus is going to be that Webb Simpson (1-6-2 at this course over his career) has less hope than he actually does of advancing, but it is not as if Paul Casey has been unbeatable at this track himself - going (7-5-2) in 14 tries. Maybe someone out of left field wins this like Talor Gooch? But I'll stick to the contrarian route and give a slight edge to Webb Simpson.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Webb Simpson
2. Paul Casey (Casey is the highest-rated player in my model for this group, but I assume it creates leverage elsewhere if I bypass him - especially if I don't plan on having the Englishman advancing far down the line)
3. Talor Gooch
4. Mackenzie Hughes

Group 10 - Patrick Cantlay ($9,800), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200), Brian Harman ($7,200), Carlos Ortiz ($6,800)

I have a gut-feeling some brackets could get won or lost in this section. Patrick Cantlay carries the upside to win the tournament if he advances out of his stage, but the combination of drawing one of my four most challenging groups/playing limited golf since his withdrawal at WGC Concession might have me look elsewhere. Cantlay will be included in my player pool on DraftKings, but I might go outside of the box when constructing a bracket.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Patrick Cantlay (Has winning upside)
2. Brian Harman (Lefty advantage at this course. Bulldog)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (Always a threat)
4. Carlos Ortiz (Putting can carry him)

Group 11 - Rory McIlroy ($10,200), Cameron Smith ($8,500), Lanto Griffin ($6,900), Ian Poulter ($6,700)

Rory McIlroy is a sensational match-play golfer. but the brutal draw for all involved makes this a wide-open quadrant. I am not sure we will be able to see McIlroy falter with different portions of his game over the first three days if he wants to advance, and I will guess that his volatility catches up to him somewhere. Cameron Smith is the most likely of the "others" to get the job done, but I am willing to bet on the cagey Ian Poulter, who the public has no interest in because of his questionable form leading into the week.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Rory McIlroy (Wins if he regains form)
2. Ian Poulter (Matchplay savant)
3. Cameron Smith (Popular but intriguing shot)
4. Lanto Griffin (Has a good skillset to surprise)

Group 12 - Tony Finau ($9,200), Will Zalatoris ($7,900), Jason Kokrak ($7,500), Dylan Frittelli ($6,500)

Does Tony Finau's win equity increase in a non-stroke play event? We will have to see. Consider this one of the more challenging groups from top-to-bottom and one that does have multiple paths to consider. I like Finau's chances to advance, but Kokrak was someone I considered heavily.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Tony Finau (Might go marginally under-the-radar because of his poor win equity)
2. Jason Kokrak (Dangerous two-seed to the group)
3. Will Zalatoris (Wild-card)
4. Dylan Frittelli (Texas University product that can score on long par-fives)

Group 13 - Viktor Hovland ($9,400), Abraham Ancer ($7,700), Kevin Streelman ($6,300), Bernd Wiesberger ($6,200)

Almost all the ownership here is going to flow to Viktor Hovland or Abraham Ancer, but I wouldn't discredit Kevin Streelman's chances. If I do select Ancer, I am doing so with the assumption that he has a final four kind of run in him at his 17% ownership rate, but I don't mind going off the grid in a quadrant that feels more open than the perception indicates.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Abraham Ancer (Most popular pick but warranted)
2. Viktor Hovland (Carries more volatility than the perception. Can win the entire bracket, though)
3. Kevin Streelman (Streelman isn't immune to catching fire)
4. Bernd Wiesberger (Form isn't great but is 3-2-1 here in his career)

Group 14 - Daniel Berger ($9,000), Harris English ($7,300), Brendon Todd ($6,400), Erik Van Rooyen ($6,400)

I may regret fading Daniel Berger because of his injury concerns, but I have a hard time backing him in a WGC pool where a withdrawal could be possible. This group is arguably the weakest of any of them when you try to decipher who might advance, and I'll likely have very little exposure to the four for DFS purposes.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Daniel Berger (Injury risk)
2. Harris English
3. Erik Van Rooyen
4. Brendon Todd

Group 15 - Jordan Spieth ($9,300), Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,700), Corey Conners ($7,800), Matthew Wolff ($6,900)

Everyone is going to do their best to try and figure out a way to fade Jordan Spieth in a difficult bracket, but I like how things are setting up for the American. My early lean is to get very aggressive with my expectation level around him, meaning that I might find myself exponentially overweight to the field. However, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Corey Conners are fine routes to go if you do decide to look elsewhere.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Jordan Spieth ('Golden Child')
2. Matthew Fitzpatrick (Looks like a child)
3. Corey Conners (Have to question if he can make enough putts)
4. Matthew Wolff (Injured Wolff howl)

Group 16 - Sungjae Im ($8,800), Russell Henley ($7,500), Marc Leishman ($6,800), Victor Perez ($6,600)

Sungjae Im is nearly 20 ranking spots off from his baseline average in this field over his last 24 rounds, and we saw the negative trend continue at the Honda Classic. I can't imagine Im can continue to strike his irons as poorly as he has and expect to last long in this contest, and I will look to take him on with one of the other three choices.

My Likelihood Rank:

1. Russell Henley (Riding quality irons)
2. Sungjae Im
3. Victor Perez
4. Marc Leishman

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