Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): 3M Open

July 21, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his 3M Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the 3M Open. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - 3M Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DF Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

TPC Twin Cities

7,481 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass 

Designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman in 2000, the venue has seen a few changes in recent years. The course was extended by over 300 yards over its typical Champions Tour layout to prepare for the 2019 iteration of the event, and the venue has remained a long Par-71 that will reward added distance.

While the winning score will most likely creep into the 20-under par range, the property does have a few defenses at its disposal. Fourteen of the 18 holes will feature water, and I'd expect the tour to utilize some of those barriers on the shorter par-fours that can be driveable on the right day. The water isn't enough to divert golfers or cause fear, but missing to the correct sides will come into play like any given week.

Tournaments such as the 3M are difficult to handicap because they sometimes can turn into a scoring contest, but the leaderboard the last two seasons has seemed fair when assessing strokes gained as a whole. Strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach have both found themselves exponentially higher than tour average, and it comes as a bit of a shock that short game metrics haven't been incredibly predictive in locating players that are going to find success. Some level of putting will always matter to an extent since we need to find out who is scoring, but I'd be more focused on golfers who can create opportunities with their irons and let the chips fall from there.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Tony Finau and Louis Oosthuizen at 14/1, Patrick Reed at 18/1 and Robert MacIntyre at 28/1.

Key Stats 

• Weighted Proximity 20%
• Ball-Striking 20%
• Weighted OTT + Approach 17.5%
• Par-Five Average 12.5%
• SG Total on Eash Courses L50 10%
• SG Total on TPC Courses L50 10%
• Overall Birdie or Better Percentage 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Dustin Johnson ($11,300) - There has to be some inherent risk with all four options in this $10,000 range since each is making a trip from England to the United States, but there is a reason why Dustin Johnson is priced as the clear-cut 7/1 favorite. Johnson's game continues to trend in the right direction after posting four top-25 finishes since the Palmetto Championship, and he ranks inside the top-10 in every statistical metric that I weighted for TPC Twin Cities.
• Most Upside: Dustin Johnson ($11,300) - I hate cherry-picking a whole range with the same player, but I want to get the point across that I do believe DJ is the best option in this territory. The safety is there. The upside is obvious. And I think we get another quality showing out of the big-hitter.
• Favorite GPP Play: Dustin Johnson ($11,300), Tony Finau ($10,700), Louis Oosthuizen ($10,900), Patrick Reed ($10,300) - That is the order I would play the four golfers. Oosthuizen and Reed become more appealing in cash-game builds, but I prefer starting GPP lineups with DJ or Finau.
• Fade: None - All have merit in one game type or another, although I do prefer Patrick Reed the least.
• Most Likely Winner: Dustin Johnson ($11,300) - No surprise here

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Cameron Tringale ($9,500) - Nothing about this feels like it could go wrong... It is wild to think Cameron Tringale is priced above options like Bubba Watson and new PGA Tour winner Cameron Davis, but the 33-year-old is in this range for a reason. Some of his outright odds are being dictated by the top-10 & 20 numbers that books have to worry about, but to me, those are the reasons why Tringale is one of the safer targets on this board if we are looking to find a player that is going to yield a top-25 performance.
• Most Upside: Matthew Wolff ($9,700) - It is hard to know what we should expect out of Matthew Wolff, but the 22-year-old has shown in the past that the upside is percolating for this event after winning the title in 2019 and coming 12th in 2020. Wolff ranks third in my model when viewing this tournament from a more volatile perspective, which means that GPP players might want to consider the American as someone with a high ceiling but questionable floor.
• Favorite GPP Play: Sergio Garcia ($9,900) - Look, you could make an argument for Bubba Watson ($9,100) also if you believe this is a Bubba-track, but I will take the slight reduction in ownership and increase in price tag since I think it separates build diversity a little more from the pack in large-field events. If you need to save a few dollars with Bubba, go for it, but I think the lack of recent upper echelon performances from Sergio should keep him more reasonably owned.
• Fade: None - This tournament has EXTREMELY strong pricing up top.
• Most Likely Winner: Bubba Watson ($9,100) - Once again, it is close between a few of these players, but when we ignore popularity, I think Watson brings the most to the table.

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Charl Schwartzel ($8,200) - Nine made cuts over his previous 10 events; Charl Schwartzel has averaged 2.5 shots approach and 1.61 shots OTT over his last seven tournaments. We have seen that sort of distribution (more explosive if he wants to win) be what is needed to find success at TPC Twin Cities, and it should put the South African in an optimal position to locate another weekend of golf.
• Most Upside: Keegan Bradley ($8,800) - Keegan Bradley lost 1.8 shots on approach at the 3M Open in 2019 and still finished 46th. I know that it required one of the top-10 putting weekends for him that I have in my database, but outside of the Tour Championship, any playoff event or one of the WGC's, it is only the fourth top-46 performance he has to date when losing a minimum of 1.8 shots with his irons.
• Favorite GPP Play: Margins feel pretty similar for Patton Kizzire ($8,600) and Keegan Bradley ($8,800). Both will be popular, and you will need diversity elsewhere, but Keegan gets one of the biggest boosts here if we believe putting is neutralized whatsoever.
• Fade: Dylan Frittelli ($8,300) - Frittelli randomly burns me more than any other golfer, but seven missed cuts in 10 tournaments is good enough for me to look the other way - even if he is rolling into the week off of a fifth at the Open.
• Most Likely Winner: Keegan Bradley ($8,800)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Hank Lebioda ($7,900) - I am ok with riding Hank Lebioda in cash until the wheels fall off
• Most Upside: Doug Ghim ($7,900) - One of the best iron players in this field. His popularity will be sky-high.
• Favorite GPP Play: Scott Stallings ($7,200) - My numbers love him across the board. Course history hasn't been great, but I won't worry too much about that at his price tag.
• Fade: Michael Thompson ($7,400), Adam Hadwin ($7,200)
• Most Likely Winner: Doug Ghim ($7,900)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Russell Knox ($6,900), Roger Sloan ($6,900), Tom Hoge ($6,900), Matthew NeSmith ($6,800), Vaughn Taylor ($6,700), Mark Anderson ($6,500), Josh Teater ($6,400), Tyler McCumber ($6,600), Michael Gligic ($6,300), Michael Gellerman ($6,100)

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