College Football Teams Set To Regress in 2024

Justin's picks for the five college football teams most likely to regress in 2024. These programs are likely to struggle some next season.

The 2024 college football season is set to be one of the most exciting seasons we've ever seen because of the many changes in the sport. There are a ton of conference switches plus we have the advent of the 12-team playoff.

While there's still a way to go before actual football is played, it's never too early to start thinking about what teams will do in 2024. Today, we'll be looking at teams who should have a worse 2024 campaign than their 2023 campaign.

Let's look at five college football teams that should regress next season.

Michigan

Last season, the Wolverines won the national championship, but don't expect a repeat performance in 2024. That's because some of the most important parts of that title-winning team are gone.

Quarterback J.J. McCarthy? Gone. Running back Blake Corum? Gone. Head coach Jim Harbaugh? Gone. All three will be in the NFL next year, leaving some huge holes to fill for Michigan.

Surprisingly, I think the head coaching hole might be the easiest to fill. Sure, Harbaugh was in the argument for the best coach in college football after Nick Saban's retirement, but his replacement, Sherrone Moore, has all the makings of a great coach. He had experience as Michigan's acting head coach during Harbaugh's suspension this past season and has been with the program since 2018. Still, replacing so much talent will be tough. Don't expect an undefeated campaign like we saw in 2023.

Washington

The team that played against Michigan in the title game lands on this list too. Washington's fall has a chance to be even more severe than Michigan's because the team is losing all its starters on offense. That's not an exaggeration either.

A lot of those guys are off for the NFL. Others are in the portal after the team lost head coach Kalen DeBoer to Alabama. The good news is the team landed Jedd Fisch from Arizona to take over as head coach. The bad news is that he wasn't able to bring Arizona's best players with him, as their top talents opted to stay with the Wildcats. Bringing in Will Rogers to take over at quarterback is a good move, but I expect this team to be a fringe playoff contender at best.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma had a solid final season in the Big 12, going 10-3 overall and 7-2 in conference play. It was a great bounce-back after a bad 2022 season that saw the Sooners finish under .500 for the first time since 1998.

However, things get tougher in 2024. OU moves to the SEC, making the game-by-game schedule a lot more challenging for the program. They have to go on the road to face Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU next season. They also have home games against Alabama and Tennessee, plus the usual neutral site contest with Texas.

The Sooners will turn to Jackson Arnold at quarterback in 2024. He was a highly-touted prospect and should be able to fill in for the departed Dillon Gabriel, but there's always some possible volatility when you start a new quarterback. Arnold's lone start was in an Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona where he was picked off three times.

Florida State

The Seminoles almost made the playoffs last year, but the committee decided that after quarterback Jordan Travis went down, they weren't one of the four best teams in the country anymore. That logic was proven correct in the Orange Bowl when a Travis-less FSU team lost 63-3 to Georgia.

Why will FSU be worse in 2024? It's pretty simple: no Jordan Travis. Sure, the addition of D.J. Uiagalelei helps steady things, but it's unclear if he's got the talent to keep this team in contention similar to 2023 when FSU was undefeated in the regular season. Add in all the other departing talent and we get a Florida State team that's going to be in a dogfight with teams like Clemson and Louisville if they even want to repeat as ACC champions.

James Madison

In just the program's second season at the FBS level, the Dukes went 11-2, which included a 7-1 record in Sun Belt play. Though their transition period to FBS made them ineligible for bowl selection under normal circumstances, the lack of enough other bowl-eligible teams led them to a spot in the Armed Forces Bowl, where they lost 31-21 to Air Force.

Heading into 2024, James Madison has to deal with some turnover. First, there's the fact that head coach Curt Cignetti is now at Indiana. JMU was a winning program before Cignetti, but that was at the FCS level. Can the team win in FBS with Bob Chesney at the helm?

There's also the quarterback situation. Jordan McCloud played extremely well in 2023 for the Dukes, but he's currently in the transfer portal. It looks like Washington transfer Dylan Morris is the new starter for the team, but he hasn't been a starter since 2021 when he threw 14 touchdowns and 12 picks for the Huskies. The competition level in the Sun Belt is lower, but the team is really betting on Morris being able to turn his career around here.

More College Football Analysis