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Mike's Week 6 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday, October 2, and Friday, October 3, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
A lot of college football weekends get hyped up. Most of them don't live up to the hype. Week 5 did. There were six overtime games. Three went into double overtime. Two of those involved top 25 teams. What more can you ask for?
Only one team is slumming this week. North Carolina State plays the Camels of Campbell. We still have 50 FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. Six of them take place before Saturday.
We have one game on Thursday, and a very nice Friday night with five games taking place. Those six games can help us win some money before another big Saturday of college football betting. We'll get those picks made, then take a look back at Week 5. It had to be better than Week 4.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 6
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
Sam Houston (-2.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This one is kind of surprising. New Mexico State started the season with two wins. The Bearkats haven't come close to a win.
Pick: New Mexico State +2.5
Western Kentucky at Delaware (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Huh? This line opened with the Hilltoppers favored, but it caved early with a lot of sharp money coming in on Delaware. I still don't buy it. This Hilltoppers offense is very good.
Pick: Western Kentucky +2.5
Charlotte at South Florida (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points, but USF beat Boise by this much. Charlotte doesn't stand a chance.
Pick: South Florida -27.5
New Mexico at San Jose State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I like Walker Eget and the San Jose offense, but no part of me trusts that defense. I saw what Jack Layne did to the Aggies last week in the fourth quarter. Another fourth-quarter collapse feels imminent for the Spartans.
Pick: New Mexico +2.5
West Virginia at (23) BYU (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If BYU is up at the level of their rival, they should have no problem covering this, right? Utah just smoked the Mountaineers in Morgantown.
Pick: BYU -18.5
Colorado State at San Diego State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is steadily rising. Grab it before it goes up to a touchdown. San Diego State's defense is elite, but the offense is, well, butt.
Pick: San Diego State -5.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? I know this week was better than last week, but I also know that I was burned by a lot of halves just in the games I've watched so far. I'm just trying to break even at this point.
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Army at East Carolina (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew better, but I picked Army anyway. Noah Short was the only bright spot for the Knights.
(8) Florida State (-6.5) at Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
An insane field rush followed Virginia's upset of No. 8 Florida State⚔️
(via @BuckeyeBat)https://t.co/vxBEGtA0we pic.twitter.com/ZHFwZwRYS7
— On3 (@On3sports) September 27, 2025
The Florida State defense was a total mess. Even though they picked Chandler Morris off three times, the Seminoles couldn't stop the run. This culminated in one of the best field storms ever. The great news is that Squirrel White was unharmed. Watching this in real time, I was afraid he was trampled.
A closer review of the video reveals that most fans attempted to bypass White. He reportedly made it to the locker room unharmed after the initial rush of humanity.
So, a funny story about this picture. In Virginia lore, this is how it is told. The last time the goalposts were torn down was our win over FSU in '95 (a friend of mine still has a piece of that goalpost). So the University went to the engineering department and asked them to… https://t.co/v1glvhpDH4
— Joe Holland (@JoeHolland) September 27, 2025
The goalposts didn't get a close-up view of Charlottesville, but the fans still got to celebrate with the goalposts on the field. I remember watching that 1995 game when Tiki Barber went nuts on No. 2 Florida State. This isn't quite the same, but the happiness in Charlottesville is.
(24) TCU at Arizona State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Sun Devils may have made a deal with the devil to keep winning these close games. Either that or Raleek Brown is just a smaller Cam Skattebo. He gets better with more touches, just like Skattebo did in 2024.
Houston (-13.5) at Oregon State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was just a flat performance by Houston. If their internal clocks were messed with, they woke up for a midnight (central) snack for 14 fourth-quarter points to tie and a defensive stop to win in overtime.
(16) Georgia Tech (-13.5) at Wake Forest: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wake Forest just had a win literally stolen from them against #16 Georgia Tech.
3rd & 5, 1:48 left, Georgia Tech has a defender clearly offsides.
Wake QB, Robby Ashford, thinks they have a free play and chucks it deep (incomplete) to try to capitalize, but the refs never threw… pic.twitter.com/lfN1oytJgw
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 27, 2025
Georgia Tech should not have won this game. They trailed for most of the game, then were likely offside on a third down that would have given Wake a first down under two minutes left, where the Demon Deacons could have run out the clock. Tech still can't run the ball outside of Haynes King.
(21) USC (-6.5) at (23) Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The USC defense couldn't hold a lead in this game once again. Stop me if you've heard this before. It has been a hallmark of Lincoln Riley teams, and it's why most Oklahoma fans aren't sad that he's gone.
(22) Notre Dame (-4.5) at Arkansas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Notre Dame beat up on Arkansas so badly that the coach got fired. I don't blame Arkansas. After seeing how Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State performed following the tough decision to fire their coaches, it was inevitable. Sam Pittman's buyout also wasn't prohibitive.
This was Notre Dame's first game over 600 yards of offense since 2017. The offense wasn't all that dangerous last year. This year it is, but the defense has far more holes than the 2024 version.
Rutgers at Minnesota (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was another rough start to the week. I get my first win thanks to a low-key entertaining game in Minneapolis.
Duke (-5.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Losing a starting quarterback after the season has already started is a very tough place to be.
Louisville (-4.5) at Pittsburgh: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pitt defense was strong in this one, but the offense wasn't. Once the Cardinals stopped turning the ball over, things got very difficult for the Panthers. This was the game that Louisville needed from Miller Moss.
Cincinnati at Kansas (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I thought these kinds of meltdowns from Kansas were over. The Jayhawks fumbled inside the three-yard line in the fourth quarter to miss a chance to go ahead. They finally went ahead on the next drive, but couldn't stop the Cincinnati offense at all inside of two minutes.
Jalon Daniels and his talents are being wasted again by defensive lapses and dropped passes.
Central Florida at Kansas State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I figured Central Florida was a paper tiger, but after what I had seen from the Kansas State offense, I wasn't willing to bet on it. That's on me.
South Alabama at North Texas (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Drew Mestemaker was that dude again, but more impressive was Caleb Hawkins. He became the first 100-yard rusher for the Mean Green in almost a year. The Mean Green defense is improved, and the offense can play with anyone.
Bowling Green at Ohio (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sieh Bangura, how I missed you. This Ohio offense is fun to watch.
Utah State at (18) Vanderbilt (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia in Week 5:
⚓️ 26/34
⚓️ 400 Total Yards
⚓️ 6 Total Touchdowns@VandyFootball pic.twitter.com/cDZ9aJ9VQl— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 27, 2025
Bryson Barnes kept the Aggies within shouting distance for about 25 minutes. Utah State needed two touchdowns in mop-up duty to bust the spread.
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Angel Flores seems to be the missing link for the Chippewas now that he's no longer splitting snaps.
Georgia Southern at James Madison (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know, maybe Matt Sluka shouldn't have quit on UNLV and just stuck it out after the 4-0 start last year after all...
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Monroe defense holding Jaylen Raynor and the Red Wolves' offense to 16 points was a good look.
(1) Ohio State (-7.5) at Washington: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Sometimes the noise is just noise. All home winning streaks are not created equal. Washington is a good team. Holding Ohio State to 24 points is not as easy as it sounds.
(4) LSU at (13) Mississippi (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The cool thing to do has been to say a quarterback is playing through an injury when they are playing poorly. That doesn't seem to be the case with Arch Manning, but it may be the case with Garrett Nussmeier.
Brian Kelly finally admitted that Nussmeier has been dealing with a "side injury." Now, Nuss is getting the week off from practice with Michael Van Buren Jr. taking the first-team reps. Anyone with eyes can see the difference between 2024 and 2025
Garrett Nussmeier throwing deep.
2024 vs 2025
Do you notice a difference? pic.twitter.com/7xRNfV0MRf
— Preston Guy (@PGuy77) September 28, 2025
There is an obvious difference, and a side injury explains everything. Brian Kelly is also enough of a schmuck to roll Nussmeier out there instead of putting in Van Buren -- who was the lone bright spot on a terrible Mississippi State team last year.
Let's hope Nussmeier isn't seriously hurt as a result of this. Let's also celebrate the job that Trinidad Chambliss is doing for the Rebels.
Auburn at (9) Texas A&M (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I want to blame the half, but I can't. A&M had three touchdowns negated because of penalties. Auburn was 0-13 on third downs, and still only lost by six. I know the defense is solid, but A&M should be concerned about the errors on offense in this one.
(11) Indiana (-7.5) at Iowa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Indiana was really fortunate to win this game. The Iowa defense showed up, but so did Indiana's. Two interceptions by the Hoosier defense helped win this game.
UCLA at Northwestern (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yes, I'm salty that Northwestern blew a 17-point lead. I don't care that it's only one point. It's the principle of it.
California at Boston College (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele survived a tough start to this game after the embarrassing loss last week. He was money in the second half to get Cal to 4-1.
Baylor (-20.5) at Oklahoma State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oklahoma State got a few things figured out in this one. Rodney Fields Jr. could be a really good back. Zane Flores still doesn't have a touchdown pass, but he did take better care of the ball. It's baby steps after you fire a coach.
Utah (-12.5) at West Virginia: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You know, maybe Texas Tech just is that good.
Connecticut (-3.5) at Buffalo: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The half saved me. Buffalo has shown signs of being good, and they have good players. When will they start winning these games?
San Diego State (-2.5) at Northern Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I wish that I could say that it was all good defense that made this a 6-3 game, but we know that isn't the whole truth.
Rice at Navy (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Navy was running off with the game until they weren't. It was 14-0 at halftime.
Akron at Toledo (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is what the Toledo offense is supposed to look like.
New Mexico State at New Mexico (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was feeling good about this pick until New Mexico came out on fire in the second half. Jack Layne couldn't be stopped.
Tulane (-15.5) at Tulsa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulsa played a decent game, but the Tulane defense was money in the second half.
Hawaii at Air Force (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Micah Alejado even has the Warriors winning on the mainland now.
Micah Alejado vs. Air Force:
🌈 457 passing yards
🌈 3 touchdowns
🌈 74.5% completion
🌈 87.4 PFSN College QBi Score
🌈 4th Ranked QB in Week 5 pic.twitter.com/GCo1fQhfcn— Oliver Hodgkinson (@hodgkinsonsport) September 29, 2025
(15) Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I guess that I can't complain about the half considering the game went into overtime. This is the first time in Tennessee history that the Vols have scored 40 or more points in five consecutive games. That's an amazing stat to me.
Middle Tennessee State at Kennesaw State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A 21-point first quarter by the Owls saved me.
Liberty at Old Dominion (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Monarchs dominated this game and still only won by 14.
Arizona at (14) Iowa State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Have thought about this throw from Rocco Becht a few too many times since seeing it in person on Saturday night. pic.twitter.com/JG932VTNuy
— Jacob Bigelow (@JacobABigelow) September 30, 2025
There are a lot of college quarterbacks who could not make that throw right now. Rocco Becht has planted himself firmly on NFL radars. The emergence of Chase Sowell is going to make the Cyclones really tough to beat. They do almost everything well.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina State (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win, but I'm not that surprised. Virginia Tech has opened up the offense in the last two weeks. Kyron Drones and Terion Stewart are about to be a problem in the ACC.
Jacksonville State at Southern Mississippi (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I continue to be pleasantly surprised by how Braylon Braxton handles this offense. I didn't think he was a great fit for Southern Miss, but I was wrong. Charles Huff has the Golden Eagles going places.
Western Kentucky (-4.5) at Missouri State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Missouri State looks better than most teams that make the jump from FCS to FBS. It's a great environment there in Springfield. Western Kentucky is a pretty good team. The Bears made them (and me) sweat this one.
Memphis (-13.5) at Florida Atlantic: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Memphis outlasted the Owls, putting up 31 of their 55 points in the fourth quarter alone! Greg Desrosiers Jr. ran for 204 yards in this one. The FAU run defense continues to be awful.
(6) Oregon at (3) Penn State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is anyone really surprised by this result?
Penn State coach James Franklin is now 2-21 against AP Top 6 opponents, the second-worst mark of any coach in FBS history. pic.twitter.com/OGDYXthClh
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) September 28, 2025
That includes Franklin dropping the last 16 in a row to the top 6 teams. How much blame can be laid on James? I'm sure he would rather have the smoke than one of his players taking it, but we need to have the uncomfortable conversation about Drew Allar.
He looked better in 2023 than he did last year or so far this year. Maybe it's the offense. Maybe it's the player. Do we blame Franklin for keeping him in that situation? Is the backup really any better? Last year, we at least had reason to believe that Beau Pribula was.
Oregon's defense controlled this game for the first 50 minutes or so. Then Allar led two touchdown drives in the fourth to tie it. The crowd at Beaver Stadium could feel it. Their fortunes were changing.
It's only fitting that an errant Drew Allar pass ended the game on the first play of double overtime. That is a microcosm of Franklin's tenure. It's amazing how bad QB play has been under Franklin. Don't let anyone tell you that it hasn't been.
That said, Franklin is not getting fired. First off, his buyout is ridiculous. Second, who else is Penn State going to get? Let Nebraska's firing of Frank Solich be a lesson. One bad hire can destroy a program for a decade or more. It also happened when Oklahoma hired Howard Schnellenberger.
(17) Alabama at (5) Georgia (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alabama has now won 10 of their last 11 games against Georgia dating back to 2008.
If the Tide hadn’t lost their two best receivers to injury in 2021, they could be on an 11-game win streak against the Dawgs.
Kirby Smart falls to 1-7 against Alabama, Kalen DeBoer improves to… pic.twitter.com/42mx8v80PH
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 28, 2025
How much of it is mental at this point? I couldn't say that Alabama was a much better team on Saturday, but they were better enough. Ty Simpson isn't nearly as bad as Florida State made him look.
Massachusetts at (20) Missouri (-44.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ahmad Hardy is a total beast, but Missouri had no interest in covering this. It was a glorified practice.
Washington State at Colorado State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Washington State defense, which has been objectively awful for the entire season, held the Rams to three points. I'm done with CSU...
San Jose State at Stanford (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
San Jose State blew this game, but thankfully, they stopped the two-point conversion to preserve the cover. How does Walker Eget throw for 473 yards and the team still lose?
Appalachian State at Boise State (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that Boise doesn't have Ashton Jeanty anymore, but this team is deeper than last year's playoff team. Boise likely can't play its way into the playoff this year, but they could knock UNLV out of them.
Kentucky at South Carolina (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
South Carolina desperately needed a game like this.
Marshall at Louisiana (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the best game of the weekend. I'm not even upset that I missed it. Vegas was right. This line closed with both teams favored at separate sites. That doesn't happen often.
Louisiana Tech (-4.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Louisiana Tech's only loss is to LSU, and they only lost by 17. We need to talk about the Bulldogs as a Group of 5 sleeper.
(25) BYU (-6.5) at Colorado: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Someone needs to say it, so I'll be the someone. Colorado's defense is better than last year, which is shocking considering the losses of Travis Hunter and Shilo Sanders.
College Football Betting Season Results
I knew it was better than last week. Even better than that, I got a touch above .500 at 26-25. That puts my season total at 116-130. That's not bad considering I missed the first eight games of the weekend! Let's check the points.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-4 (14-14) = 0
2. 10-11 (38-52) = -28
3. 10-3 (41-35) = 18
4. 0-6 (16-22) = -24
5. 2-1 (7-7) = 0
I ended up breaking even this week since I had another miserable week of four-point bets. I'm still back on the right track. We're going to cut into that 34-point deficit this week!
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