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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 9 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
"134 teams & not 1 good 1" led the group with 46 points this week. "Weinhund's Winners" was the only other entry to get 40. The logjam started after that, but there were a couple of shakeups at the top. "IUBB1!" leads the group for the second straight week with 308 points. "mr_richard" is in second with 304 points. "EAGLESYANKEES77" rounds out the top three with 301 points.
"keepingthelittlehumansalive" and "lbockenek" are tied for fourth with 295 points. "dlobo4" is only one point behind them. I moved up to seventh place with 293 points. "50Centi" and "big papi10" are tied for eighth with 292 points. "bullgator" rounds out the top 10 at 291 points.
There is a little separation after that. "Stott not Scott" is four points out of the top 10. Only 30 points separate first place from 17th. There are tougher games to pick from here on out, so anything can happen. Two new entries reached the top 10 this week. There are still six weeks left and plenty of time to make a move for the RotoBaller prize!
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.
(1) Wisconsin over Penn State
I can think of a half-dozen reasons why Penn State can, and likely will, lose this game. In order to not bore you, I'll keep it to the main ones. Reason number one is Tawee Walker. The Badgers are different with him at running back over Chez Mellusi.
Tawee Walker since becoming RB1 3 games ago:
- 418 Rushing Yards/139 per game
- 6 Touchdowns
- 0 FUMBLES pic.twitter.com/94PFZz9eYX— Badger Enthusiast (@Badger_szn) October 21, 2024
Walker is an excellent player and an even better person. He makes his teammates better. This guy stayed and practiced at Oklahoma and played in the bowl game despite already entering the portal because he made a commitment to his team. College football needs more guys like Walker.
On top of that, this game is in Madison. Penn State is 5-6 all-time in Madison. Penn State's next game is against Ohio State. They wouldn't be the first team to get caught looking ahead this season.
Add in the fact that the public is just 7% on Wisconsin, and we have a great chance to steal a point plus whatever most entries put on Penn State. Given the expected win (93% on Penn State, -240 in Vegas), most entries will likely have at least five points on Penn State.
(2) Louisiana-Monroe over South Alabama
I love the Jags as much as anyone else, especially when they play in Mobile. However, the Warhawks beat a pretty good James Madison team. Monroe's only loss is to Texas. South Alabama lost to Arkansas State. The Jags are a heavy favorite in Vegas but they really haven't played well since the LSU game.
(3) Michigan State over Michigan
Both teams creamed Iowa, which might not be a big deal this year. This pick comes down solely to quarterback play. Michigan State has it with Aiden Chiles. Michigan could cobble together the best attributes of all three of their quarterbacks and not create Chiles.
The public is very heavy (85%) on Michigan, so I'm stealing some points here. Michigan still can't move the ball. Teams don't respect the Michigan passing game because they don't have to. That's what J.J. McCarthy gave Michigan last year. He didn't put up big numbers, but everyone knew he was capable of beating them if necessary. That threat is gone in 2024.
(4) LSU over Texas A&M
This is not where I come in here and rag on A&M. Jimbo Fisher is gone and they are behaving like a normal team again. Unless you're a Texas fan, it's okay to say that you like how the Aggies are playing now. Follow my lead. This is a solid team and they don't often beat themselves.
Caden Durham tonight:
22 Touches
108 Total Yards
3 TouchdownsThe freshman is SPECIAL? pic.twitter.com/JGKefMjc1C
— LSUMuse (@lsu_muse) October 20, 2024
The problem is that LSU is probably better at every position on the field now that Caden Durham has emerged at running back to balance the LSU offense. The element of surprise is back, and Durham is the missing link for LSU. The scary part? He's still not at 100% yet following a foot injury. He might be even better!
(5) Texas Tech over TCU
Lubbock kid Sawyer Robertson, not recruited by Tech, returned to Lubbock and lit up his hometown university last week. That's a hell of a story, but that doesn't mean Tech is a worse team for it. I'm old enough to remember Josh Hoover struggling against Utah and losing at home to Houston so far in October. Tech is going to roll here, and the public is heavy (63%) on TCU. Gimme those points!
(6) Colorado over Cincinnati
Colorado smoked a pretty good Arizona team. This is one of the better defensive performances by the Buffs in the Deion Sanders era. The Bearcats bring a special brand of defense to Folsom Field on Saturday night, but crazy things happen there...especially to teams that aren't used to the altitude.
(7) Arizona over West Virginia
Arizona is probably a bowl team, but that's a big letdown after they won nine straight to close the 2024 season. The Wildcats have dropped three straight since whacking Utah in Salt Lake City, but they should get back on track at home in this one.
(8) Toledo over Bowling Green
Harold Fannin Jr. is the best player that you've never heard of, but the rest of the Bowling Green team, especially on defense, is a disaster. Toledo isn't much better, but they should win in the Glass Bowl.
(9) Indiana over Washington
Tayven Jackson will start this week vs. Washington due to Kurtis Rourke’s injury.
Jackson played very well in the 2nd half vs. Nebraska. This TD throw to Sarratt was an absolute dime. #iufb pic.twitter.com/w72ocSM9BT
— HOOSIER HEADLINES (@HoosierHeads) October 20, 2024
The loss of Kurtis Rourke will be noticeable, but it's not a death sentence for Indiana's perfect season. Jackson completed 7-of-8 passes against Nebraska after Rourke's thumb injury for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson started six games for the Hoosiers last year with limited success.
In case you didn't watch James Madison under Curt Cignetti over the last couple of years (most of you didn't and that's fine. That's why you have me), the hallmark of those teams was that the next player on the depth chart was just as prepared as the starter. That's why we saw success from Jackson in the Nebraska game.
Wrote about the Kurtis Rourke-Tayven Jackson situation earlier this week, in case you missed it.
It includes discussion around this graphic.
Check it out: https://t.co/trCnS1bkJD pic.twitter.com/XeWhCGs45E
— taylor from bite-sized bison (@ByTaylorL) October 24, 2024
That chart tells me that whatever we saw from Jackson last year under the old coaching staff is irrelevant. Cignetti and his guys get the best from their players, especially the quarterbacks. Indiana will be fine without Rourke for the next week or two.
(10) BYU over Central Florida
UCF gave a spirited performance in Ames last week, but Jacurri Brown is now on film and will not take the rest of the Big 12 (14) by surprise again this year. The UCF defense is still a mess. R.J. Harvey will have a big game, but the fun stops there at the Bounce House.
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