College Football Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 12 2024) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pick'em Contests

November 14, 2024

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 12 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

We have just three weeks left. "lbockenek" and "all the way up Big tee#2" both hit 50 points in Week 11. Six other entries had at least 45 points. "mr_richard" still leads the group with 431 points, but his lead dwindled to just three points over "lbockenek" with her big week. "big papi10" sits in third place with 423 points. "IUBB1!" is one point behind that and "all the way up Big tee#2" sits in fifth place with 420 points.

"keepinglittlehumansalive" sits in sixth place with 415 points. "50 Centi" is two points back. "Strawberry Runtz" is 11 points back of eighth place, creating our first big gap in the standings. "134 teams & not 1 good 1" sits in 10th place with an even 400 points.

We have four more entries in the 390s and three in the 380s. They aren't completely out of the running yet. A 50-point week can vault you up the standings quickly, but the consistency of "mr_richard" is making it hard to catch him.

College Football Pick'em Overview

This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.

(1) Tennessee over Georgia

Mississippi provided the blueprint to beat Georgia, but can the Tennessee defense lock them down the way that the Land Sharks did? Tennessee has the talent to do it. When it comes down to it, Georgia's losses are to Alabama and Mississippi. Let's play a little game of "what if" here.

What if Texas and Clemson aren't who pollsters think they are? Neither Texas nor Clemson has what we can really call a "quality win." Tennessee has one against Alabama. I was critical of Tennessee's lack of explosiveness after the Kent game, but I almost think it's by design.

Running the ball rests the defense and Dylan Sampson is too good to waste. Josh Heupel is going with the healthy personnel he has.

(2) Florida over LSU

My first instinct was to pick every road team. It's very unlikely that all 10 road teams win. I still have more road teams than I'm comfortable with and may end up switching a few of these around.

Florida was awful at the beginning of the season. Just when Graham Mertz looked like he could be a serviceable quarterback (it may have all been smoke and mirrors anyway), he got hurt. Savior DJ Lagway and Jadan Baugh usher in a youth movement and Florida starts to flourish.

Lagway should be back this week. The Florida defense has played much better over the last six weeks or so except for last week when the offense couldn't move the ball. Lagway gives this offense a difference-maker. It might be enough to swamp a reeling LSU team.

Does Florida have the Hardest Schedule of ALL-TIME next season?

vs. #24 Miami
vs. Samford
vs. #25 Texas A&M
@ Miss State
vs. UCF
@ #16 Tennessee
vs. #23 Kentucky
vs. #1 Georgia
@ #4 Texas
vs. #12 LSU
vs. #6 Ole Miss
@ #15 Florida State

9/12 Teams Ranked

Is Billy Napier cooked?… pic.twitter.com/7nucVx95LD

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) February 17, 2024

I know a lot of people were calling for Billy Napier's head, and I agreed. They got mauled by Miami and didn't look much better against A&M in the first two weeks of the season. Florida's schedule got a touch easier with Florida State imploding, but if Billy Napier makes a bowl with this schedule and the rash of injuries the Gators have suffered, he deserves to be spared.

A win here against LSU would mean that the Gators need to beat Mississippi or Florida State to get a bowl bid. Beating Florida State is not only doable but likely. Suddenly, Florida still has something to play for.

(3) Air Force over Oregon State

UPDATE: I'm flipping my pick to Air Force. I finally watched the Oregon State game against San Jose State and...yuck. I'll try and steal some points here.

Ari Force looked good last week, but I think that's more a product of Fresno being bad this year. This is a place where I may try to steal points. The public is 95% on Oregon State. Vegas is much less confident (-175). Stay tuned.

(4) BYU over Kansas

Kansas has a +43 scoring differential this year, and is 2-6. ESPN has had them favored to win at some point in the final 20 minutes in every single game this year. pic.twitter.com/IhCpCu3w30

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 27, 2024

This is a trap game for BYU after a very emotional (and very unlikely) comeback win in Salt Lake City last week. Kansas being the best 2-6 team in history is something that is so very Kansas. When it comes down to it. Both of the Kansas wins are in the last three games. They gave away some games early, but better decision-making from Jalon Daniels has resulted in wins.

Kansas still has bowl aspirations and needs to win out to do it. I'm not putting many points on this because Kansas seems more motivated right now, especially after taking a wrecking ball to Iowa State's season.

(5) Baylor over West Virginia

The public is high on the Mountaineers (66%) at home, but Vegas favors Baylor (-135). I'm with Vegas. The Bears have looked really good lately, beating TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. West Virginia just pulled road wins in Cincinnati and Arizona. I'm nervous, but I also know that Bryson Washington is the best player on either team.

?️ Take a look at the Runner-Ups for #CFB’s Fastest Players of Week ?@BUFootball RB, Bryson Washington

1 of FOUR TDs on the day ? 20.2 MPH@Brysonwash15 #SicEm #BaylorFB #Big12FB pic.twitter.com/ES5CXqNXk1

— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) November 6, 2024

(6) Tulane over Navy

Navy has fallen apart, and Tulane's offense is finally firing on all cylinders. This doesn't feel like the place to take a home team, but it does make me a bit nervous.

(7) Rutgers over Maryland

I don't understand the Maryland love here. Tai Felton is probably the best player on the field, but Rutgers just took down a Minnesota team that was laying waste to the middle of the Big Ten (18). Maryland got smoked by the Gophers a couple of weeks ago and lost to Northwestern by 27. I'll trust Rutgers here, especially with the public 72% on Maryland.

My only chance to get back into contention is to buck the public in places where the underdog has at least a puncher's chance at winning the game. If you are way behind in your Pick Em group as well, this could also be your only chance to win. You just have to be willing to lose spectacularly if it doesn't work out.

(8) Georgia State over Arkansas State

Many are going to look at Georgia State's 2-7 record and immediately flock to Arkansas State. Maybe you shouldn't. The Panthers have lost five straight, but it's to a who's who of the Fun Belt. They started this streak with a loss to Old Dominion, then lost to Marshall, Appalachian State, UConn, and James Madison.

The JMU game was the only game in which the Panthers weren't within shouting distance. Arkansas State got blown out by Louisiana and Texas State, while barely escaping Troy and South Alabama. The quality of opponents is not the same and Vegas agrees -- the Panthers are favored by 2.5 points. The public is 74% on the Red Wolves. I'm going big on the point stealing here.

(9) James Madison over Old Dominion

I really hate having the Monarchs this high on my list. I can't seem to get them right this year. However, this is not against the spread and JMU is the much better team (again). The Monarchs aren't that big of dogs (+125) in Vegas and the public is 97% on the Dukes. I would love to try and steal here as well, but I don't see ODU winning.

(10) Illinois over Michigan State

Neither team has played well lately and both are coming off of byes. Michigan State only has one road win this year. It was in Week 2 against Maryland. Illinois lost at home to Minnesota, but they did beat the Michigan team that took care of little brother.

Illinois hasn't looked as good as they did earlier in the season, but the defense should still be able to handle the Spartans.

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