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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Saturday, September 28, 2024. Every college football game of Week 5 of the 2024 season picked against the spread.
We have almost weeded out all of the FBS vs. FCS matchups. Only three teams are slumming this week. That gives us another 50-game Saturday! Let me be your betting guide through all of it!
I'm only picking FBS vs. FBS games because even if casinos have a line on the FBS vs. FCS matchups, the spreads are wild enough to drive us away. Well ... most of us. I'll pick my 50 games today and be happy. I'm off to a good start so far. Let's keep it up!
I'm up 84 betting points on the casinos in the first month. It's a great start, but there's a long way to go. Let's make some more money! There are some good spots this week!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 5 (9/28/24)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Kentucky at (6) Mississippi (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
We have seen Ole Miss bowl over lesser teams. Meanwhile, Kentucky is already tested having lost to South Carolina and nearly beaten Georgia. I'll take Ole Miss in Oxford, but I have no confidence in it.
Minnesota at (12) Michigan (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm old enough to remember what Kaleb Johnson did to this Gopher defense. Kalel Mullings is going to have a monster game. Give me Michigan.
Few players are boosting their NFL draft stock today like Michigan’s Kalel Mullings. Violent runner with wicked contact balance. Never seems to stop churning his legs. pic.twitter.com/VLBXiUQcRD
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) September 21, 2024
(20) Oklahoma State at (23) Kansas State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oklahoma State struggled with the Utah defense. K-State got obliterated in Provo. I'll take the experience of Alan Bowman. We knew this kind of game was going to happen for Avery Johnson. If the Pokes get ahead, it will be trouble for the Wildcats.
If they don't, it's going to be trouble for the Cowboys. Micah Parsons had a big game last week. Big enough that Okie State lost at home to a freshman quarterback. DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards can control this game. I'll go with the Wildcats at home.
(22) BYU at Baylor (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
BYU’s game against Baylor is an enormous opportunity for a narrative buster:
-10 game losing streak in day games vs FBS
-zero road Big 12 wins still
-a road game after an emotional ranked win
-offense still with some warts
-0 for 2 playing in Waco
— Nick Lee ?? (@NickLee51) September 26, 2024
Much is being made over BYU's struggles on the road in the Big 12 (14). I'm not going to deny that, but this is a different BYU team. Baylor struggled and eventually lost to a spunky but defensively illiterate Colorado team. I still like BYU outright.
Maryland at Indiana (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you want this at 6.5, you'd better grab it now. The only place I still see it at 6.5 is on FanDuel, but the juice is much higher. Honestly, I feel more comfortable with the over 51.5. Since we do spreads here, I'm taking the Hoosiers. If it goes above 7, I'll likely leave it entirely.
Nebraska (-10.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Purdue got throttled by an offensively stunted Notre Dame team. Nebraska is going to run the ball, run some more, run the quarterback, then run the ball again. Dylan Raiola might not hit 20 pass attempts in this one. It should still be enough to cover.
Buffalo at Connecticut (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Really? This line is up five points and some casinos have dropped it entirely. This is still UConn, people. Smashing FAU doesn't mean what it used to. I still like Buffalo outright. It beat Northern Illinois -- a much better team -- on the road last week.
Western Kentucky at Boston College (-8.5) *UPDATED*
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Thomas Castellanos is out for Boston College. I thought it might be too high before. Now I'm convinced it is. The four-point drop isn't enough of a deterrent. I'm flipping to the Hilltoppers and upping the bet.
Northern Illinois at North Carolina State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Not a chance. NIU straight up!
Navy (-3.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels low, especially since UAB got smoked by Monroe. Give me Navy.
South Florida at Tulane (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down a touch with the news that Byrum Brown should play. If Brown plays, the wrong team is favored. USF outright.
Ball State at James Madison (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Well ... the Dukes almost covered Carolina by this in Chapel Hill. This feels like a pretty safe bet.
Omarion Dollison’s JMU career:
- 8 touches
- 288 yards (36 yards per touch)
- 3 TDsAll eight of his touches have resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. pic.twitter.com/02uE8VrGXD
— JMU Sports News (@JMUSportsNews) September 22, 2024
Texas State (-8.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I've only watched one Sam Houston game so far, but this feels high, doesn't it? I know the Bobcats hammered UTSA, but they are always a lot better in San Marcos. I'll take the Bearkats and the points.
Wisconsin at (13) USC (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How good is that Wisconsin defense? I'm worried about the USC defense showing many signs of regression against Michigan. USC is the better team, but this feels kind of high. I'll take USC, but I'm not betting on this.
(15) Louisville at (16) Notre Dame (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the stage that Tyler Shough has been waiting for. I picked Louisville outright in Pick'em, and I'm not backing off. Cards straight up!
(21) Oklahoma (-1.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Michael Hawkins will make his first start as a true freshman on the road at Jordan Hare Stadium behind a shaky at best offensive line and without Oklahoma’s top five wide receivers. Freaking brutal.
— Tyler Burton (@TylerBurton7) September 27, 2024
This line still hasn't stabilized since the injury report dropped. I see Auburn favored in several spots. The thing is ... this isn't much of a deterrent for me. Michael Hawkins Jr. has been throwing to the likes of Jaquaize Pettaway and Zion Ragins in practice for months now.
We saw his connection with Pettaway in the loss to Tennessee. The only difference for Hawkins is the depth chart. All of the guys he has spent months practicing with are now on the first string. I still like Oklahoma here...especially with Payton Thorne starting for Auburn.
Arkansas vs. (24) Texas A&M (-4.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is down over a touchdown already. I still don't think it's an overcorrection. It just means that Vegas expects Conner Weigman to sit out again. He was spotted at practice this week, but his reps were "on the side" and not in the regular flow of practice.
I think Marcel Reed at least starts the game, which makes it very difficult to pick. This isn't a true road game for the Hogs. I liked what I saw from Taylen Green against Auburn. Woo Pig!
Massachusetts at Miami (OH) (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks offense isn't built to cover these big spreads, but there is no way I'm taking UMess. I just need to lower the bet.
Louisiana at Wake Forest (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wake nearly beat Virginia and only allowed 40 to Ole Miss (hey ... that's not as easy as it looks!). That's more impressive than anything the Cajuns have accomplished. Give me Wake.
TCU at Kansas (Arrowhead Stadium) (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kansas is one step away from unraveling. Not playing games at the Booth probably isn't helping things, either. I'll take Kansas one more time, but I'm not betting anywhere near what I would have on this in Week 1.
Colorado at Central Florida (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. Colorado's defense is a mess, but we can't act like that offense isn't loaded. UCF's defense isn't a world-beater, either. Give me the Ralphies.
Liberty (-3.5) at Appalachian State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm a little nervous because there is no juice on the Liberty line here in a couple of places. Not nervous enough to avoid the bet, but still. Flame on!
Fresno State at UNLV (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV statement on QB Matt Sluka pic.twitter.com/6R1hHyYQqn
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) September 25, 2024
I'm shocked that UNLV is still favored, but you can't outsmart Vegas. I said earlier in the week that the UNLV defense is the most important unit in this game. This line just shows that Vegas agrees. Will UNLV have growing pains with Hajj-Malik Williams making his first start? Sure. That doesn't mean that UNLV isn't still the better team.
As for Matthew Sluka and Michael Allen, those are fairly big losses for UNLV. However, if you look at how the team is reacting to this upheaval, it is acting more optimistic than before. If the team isn't lying and Sluka just wanted more for winning games, no wonder his former teammates are mad. We could see a very different (in a good way) UNLV team here. Give me the Rebels.
San Diego State at Central Michigan (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is how far down the Aztecs are. The university finally gives them a swanky new stadium and the Aztecs fall apart on the field. Are they really this far down? I have my doubts. Give me SDSU.
Georgia Southern at Georgia State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's Modern Day Hate Week already? This is always an interesting and entertaining game. This will be no exception. I like the Eagles because of that half, but I'm not touching this.
Western Michigan at Marshall (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Just because Marshall got thumped by Ohio State doesn't mean it is a bad team. It led in that game and hung around for the first 20 minutes. I'm following the Herd at home.
Akron at Ohio (-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This should have been a mid-week MACtion game. Now, no one will care if and when Ohio wins. Give me the Bobcats.
Eastern Michigan (-15.5) at Kent State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Call me wild, but this feels low. I'll take the Eagles.
North Carolina at Duke (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This Carolina defense is going to make Maalik Murphy look like the favorite for the Heisman. Duke rolls!
UTSA at East Carolina (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This will be the first time that I take the Pirates this year, so they're probably going to make me wish I didn't. Bet accordingly...
Mississippi State at (1) Texas (-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It doesn't make much of a difference who the quarterback is. Texas is much better at every position, including the coaches. I'll take Texas again.
Old Dominion at Bowling Green (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels low. I wouldn't be shocked if the Falcons win the MAC.
Louisiana Tech (-2.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FIU just lost to Monmouth. Give me the Bulldogs.
(3) Ohio State (-23.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Aidan Chiles makes way too many mistakes for the Spartans to hang around. Give me Brutus.
Stanford at (17) Clemson (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I feel like this could be a lower-scoring game. I'll take Stanford, but I'm not touching this.
(18) Iowa State (-14.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Cougars just got throttled by Cincinnati. There's no reason the Cyclones won't do the same. Give me ISU.
Louisiana-Monroe at Troy (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down and it shouldn't be. Troy has adjusted to life without Kimani Vidal by embracing life with Devonte Ross. I'll take the Trojans.
Charlotte at Rice (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
E.J. Warner is going to have a game like the ones he had at Temple last year. I'll take Rice.
Tulsa at North Texas (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Was Tulsa beating Louisiana Tech a fluke? Probably. Give me UNT.
(2) Georgia (-1.5) at (4) Alabama
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Crazy stat:
Georgia is 45-2 since the start of 2021
The 2 losses? Alabama
Bulldogs has lost 8 of the last 9 games vs the Tide.
Kirby Smart is 1-5 vs Alabama
Saturday night is going to be WILD in Tuscaloosa. pic.twitter.com/h7ITTf9ShL
— Peter Burns (@PeterBurnsESPN) September 23, 2024
I still like Alabama outright at home. Georgia will buck this trend at some point, but I would expect it to be in Athens or at a neutral site.
(19) Illinois at (9) Penn State (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Penn State demolishing a horrible Kent team is throwing this line out of whack. This is way too many! Illinois might not win, but it stays fairly close.
Middle Tennessee State at Memphis (-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I believe it, but that doesn't mean I have any desire to bet on this. Give me Memphis.
South Alabama at (14) LSU (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. The USA offense is looking pretty good right now. I'll take the Jags to not get covered.
Florida State at SMU (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow ... I was not expecting this. Is SMU that much better than Florida State? Is that the state of college football in 2024? The Florida State run defense looked good last week and I'm not sure SMU can pass well enough with Kevin Jennings to win this. I'll take FSU. This stays close if FSU doesn't win.
Cincinnati at Texas Tech (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If Texas Tech could quit committing dumb penalties, it might be a force to be reckoned with. All it has to do is clean it up a little. I like Tech at home.
New Mexico (-9.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a little high for a rivalry game on the road. Give me the Aggies.
Air Force (-3.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Hey now, the Falcons play high up in the mountains, too. This is too low. Air Force rolls!
Washington State at (25) Boise State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that hook, but I do like Ashton Jeanty. Give me Boise.
Arizona at (10) Utah (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cameron Rising: Cleared but not 100 percent - https://t.co/kEywlAYPk2
— RotoWire?CFB (@RotoWireCFB) September 23, 2024
This news has sparked the line a little, but can we believe it? Rising was expected to play a couple of times in the first month of the 2023 season and missed the whole year. This line suggests that Arizona is not a good team, which is not true. Give me the Wildcats.
(8) Oregon (-25.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So ... is Oregon good now because it thrashed little brother in Corvallis? I don't know. I don't. Oregon is the better team and is getting my pick, but I don't like it enough to bet much on it.
There are 53 total games this week. I'm down to seven minimum bets again, but I wound up with 24 bets on the two-line. I'm not super confident in a lot of games this week. I have my customary three maximum bets, but only four four-pointers. I ended up with 13 on the three-line. Let's win some more money!
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