RADIO
I always laugh at the season-long leaguers who schedule their drafts for the very first available day. There are so many things that can happen during preseason. Enter, Julian Edelman and Spencer Ware.
There was also no shortage of Week 1 shake-ups. The #1 drafted running back on thousands of rosters, David Johnson went down with what was thought to be a dislocated wrist in the Arizona Cardinals Week 1 bout against the Detroit Lions, and it turned out to be a dislocation that required surgery and will cost the Cardinals around eight weeks of Johnson-less play.
These kinds of things are devastating to season-long leagues, but what does it mean for Daily Fantasy. Furthermore, how do you choose your RBs for DFS?
The Sleeper
Keeping your eye on RB handcuffs can be an integral part in getting valuable, breakout running backs. A prime example is those who knowing when Ware went down for the Chiefs, added Kareem Hunt to their Week 1 roster because they knew Ware's handcuff would know receive the title role for the time being. Those who payed attention to this snapped up a RB dirt-cheap who scored 45.6 PPR and 40.6 non-PPR (points per reception). This a situation where an 'unheard of' scored gobs of points.
Another example, but more of a #2 back situation, is Tarik Cohen, who whipped out 25.3 PPR and 17.3 non-PPR. According to ESPN, he was available in 97.7% of their leagues and was a top add in Week 2. He'll be a bit pricier for DFS in the upcoming weeks because the public is going to jump on him, but still may be a viable second option.
Speaking of the Public
You just need to be smarter than half of the public. 'Top half wins' tournaments are set up so the top 50.01% wins on a tier basis. This means, to win cash consistently you just need to be slightly above average. Putting in the research and finding an inexpensive RB that can put up points (like Hunt during Week 1) will free up your salary to take that high-dollar, high expectation QB with a pansy defensive secondary matchup - and an Antonio Brown and a Julio Jones to boot. The key to beating the public is situational awareness and timing.
Watch those defenses and look for holes. Did a key run-stopper just go out with injury or personal leave? Have roles recently changed on the defensive line to accommodate personnel issues? Pin-pointing these things can help you determine when a low-expectation running back will get more touches and potentially have a breakout day.
Having keen matchup awareness can also help you earn a few bucks in the player props markets as well, but you'll need to review the top betting sites to find a trustworthy online outlet.
Sorry About Your Luck
In Week 1, Le'Veon Bell at $9,800 was neck-and-neck with David Johnson $9,400 (7 points) on most people's #1 RB list. Needless to say, that thousands of people paid an arm and a leg to drop Bell into their #1RB slot and boy did they get burned.
At $9,800 on Draft Kings, Bell's miserable performance (4.70 points) didn't come near hitting his cash game value. Meanwhile, at $5,700, Leonard Fournette dropped 18.40 on the Texans. The lesson here is: just because the price-tag is high, does not by any means guarantee an actual top-tier performance. Instead, look at situations and matchups with potential holes when deciding which DFS running backs to go with.
