X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Tyler Mahle & Caleb Smith

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of pitchers Tyler Mahle and Caleb Smith to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

Popular waiver wire arms are once again today's topic of discussion. If you're in need of a new pitcher for your staff (and nearly everyone is), both Tyler Mahle of the Cincinnati Reds and Caleb Smith of the Miami Marlins have probably crossed your mind. Neither has much of a track record though, so you may be hesitant to take the plunge.

Both have some promise in their profiles, but are dinged by the quality of their supporting cast. Ultimately, Mahle is likely to be more trouble than he's worth this season, while Smith should be owned in most formats.

Let's take a closer look at the details!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Tyler Mahle (SP, CIN) - 19% Owned

Mahle's 4.35 ERA over 39 1/3 IP this season isn't great, but his underlying 3.49 xFIP suggests a quality pitcher. The latter number is rooted in strong K% (25.9%) and BB% (6.8%) numbers, but they seem unlikely to last. Furthermore, his 39% GB% does not bode well at Great American Ballpark.

The first argument against Mahle is the fact that he didn't really strike anybody out in the minor leagues. He debuted in the High Minors for Double-A Pensacola in 2016, tossing 71 1/3 innings of 4.92 ERA baseball. His xFIP (3.60) was better, but hardly enough to intrigue fantasy owners considering his meh 21% K%. Mahle's GB% (40.7%) was only slightly higher than his current mark, leaving him at the mercy of his environment. Pensacola favors hitters (1.016 park factor for runs scored from 2014-2016) by way of boosting HR (1.067 factor), and Mahle struggled with it (14.6% HR/FB).

Mahle returned to the level to begin 2017, throwing 85 IP there. He dominated, posting a 1.59 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, 26.9% K%, and 5.3% BB%. The only thing that didn't change was his ground ball rate, which held perfectly steady at 40.7%. Part of his success was an unsustainable BABIP (.245 vs. .320 the previous year), but he clearly progressed enough to deserve the promotion to Triple-A the Reds rewarded him with.

Mahle was great by surface stats at Triple-A Louisville, compiling a 2.73 ERA over 59 1/3 IP. His xFIP (3.60) wasn't as strong, and his Ks dried up again (21.2% K%). He remained a fly ball pitcher (39.2% GB%), but wasn't hurt by the home run nearly as much as his first taste of Double-A (6.8% HR/FB). Louisville is one of the fairer ballparks in the minor leagues, close to the league average in HR (0.982), hits (1.026), and total runs scored (1.017). His .281 BABIP made sense for a fly ball guy, suggesting that the campaign was a reasonable indication of Mahle's abilities.

Unfortunately, the performance does little from a fantasy perspective. The Ks are not there, and Cincinnati is likely to inflate Mahle's HR/FB on all of the flies he allows. The problem is exasperated by a closer look at his repertoire.

Mahle features a three-pitch mix (fastball, slider, change) plus a show-me curve. He's throwing the curve 1.5% of the time, so it effectively doesn't exist for our purposes. His heater averages 93 mph and has been getting plenty of whiffs (9.2% SwStr%), but lacks the velocity or spin rate (2,164 RPM) to expect that to continue moving forward. Its 58.6% Zone% is impressive, but the pitch isn't as good as it has looked thus far.

Mahle's slider is more of an offspeed fastball than a breaking pitch, boasting a high 50% Zone% but relatively lacking 13.6% SwStr% and 30.5% chase rate. It should help him avoid walks, but it's not a true put away pitch. Mahle's change exists, but its SwStr% (11.3%) is mediocre for an offering with a 43.3% Zone% and 29.1% chase rate. It needs a lot of work to be a viable weapon against MLB hitters.

Thus, we're left with a fly ball pitcher offering middling stuff in a hitter's park. His team is also terrible, preventing him from compiling fluke wins. Mahle is a viable streamer for some road starts, but he's not a fantasy stalwart at this stage of his career.

Verdict: Chump

 

Caleb Smith (SP, MIA) - 38% Owned

Smith has a 3.67 ERA and 3.54 xFIP over 34 1/3 IP this season, but that is not why he is consistently among Rotoballer's top 10 searches. That has everything to do with his 33.8% K%, an eye-popping number that easily warrants further attention. His walks are high (12% BB%), but you just want to believe in a K% that high. Is it for real?

Smith was Yankee property before this season, so we're revisiting Double-A Trenton (0.928 runs scored, 0.805 HR, 0.993 hits) and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (0.919, 0.879, 0.985) for this analysis. He made his High Minors debut for Trenton in 2015, throwing 130 2/3 IP and compiling a 3.38 ERA against an xFIP of 4.25. His Ks were low (16.6% K%), his BBs were high (9.2% BB%), and fantasy owners couldn't care less.

Smith became interesting when he repeated the level in 2016. His K% increased to 25.1% over 63 2/3 IP while his BB% declined (7.2%). His ERA increased to 3.96 thanks to an inflated BABIP (.344 vs. .280 the year prior), but his underlying xFIP improved to 3.53. The Yankees were impressed enough to let him try Triple-A in 2017.

Smith threw 98 IP for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season, where he maintained his gains in both K% (24.6%) and BB% (7.1%). His ERA was a sterling 2.39, though his 3.59 xFIP wasn't quite as confident in the sustainability of his 7% HR/FB or .264 BABIP. Still, it was a solid performance that the Yankees rewarded with some big league innings. They were an utter disaster (7.71 ERA in 18 2/3 IP).

Thus, Smith has a minor league history of favorable strikeout totals, though not to the extent of his performance to date. An analysis of his arsenal reveals that he should continue to strikeout enough batters for fantasy owners to care about him.

Smith is a three-pitch guy, throwing his 93.3 mph fastball 59.6% of the time, a slider 29.4% of the time, and a change 10.6% of the time. His heater offers a strong spin rate (2,407 RPM) that supports strikeouts (8.5% SwStr% and 57.8% Zone%) and pop-ups (53.7% FB%, 36.4% IFFB%). That is a lot of pop-ups, lending credibility to his low .260 BABIP on the season. This is a very good pitch.

His heater's high Zone% also sets up two legitimate wipeout offerings. His slider could use a slightly higher chase rate (37.5% this year), but performs very well otherwise (18.3% SwStr%, 37.8% Zone%). His change is seldom chased outside of the zone (27.9%), but induces plenty of whiffs (18.5% SwStr%) when it is. It's definitely Plan B to the slider's Plan A, but few repertoires have two offerings with an 18% SwStr%.

Moving forward, Smith's K% is likely to fall to something like 27%--not as strong as it has been, but still really good. Considering his minor league history, a corresponding decrease in walks could keep his K/BB roughly where it is now. Wins will be hard to come by on a glorified expansion team, but this 27-year old is the real deal.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Giancarlo Stanton

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Will Campbell

Ends Minicamp as Top Left Tackle
Sam Cosmi

Making Good Progress From Torn ACL
Kamaru Usman

Gets Back In The Win Column
Adonai Mitchell

Impresses at Minicamp
Joaquin Buckley

Winning Streak Comes To An End
Miranda Maverick

Drops Decision At UFC Atlanta
Bradley Chubb

Fully Healed, Looking Disruptive
Jonnu Smith

Contract Talks "Still Fluid"
Rose Namajunas

Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
J.J. McCarthy

Looking "a Lot Stronger"
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Garrett Wilson

Receives New Contract Offer
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Travis Kelce

Slims Down During the Offseason
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Restart Contract Discussions
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF