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Champ or Chump: Joey Gallo & Aaron Judge

The old saying "Chicks dig the long ball" applies to fantasy baseball owners as well. Billy Hamilton is frequently criticized for offering nothing outside of steals, yet similar players who provide nothing but bombs are not only rostered, but taken inside the top 100. Hamilton goes high too, but at least two owners in every league roll their eyes when his name gets called that early.

The thing about one-trick ponies is that somebody will come out of nowhere to provide similar production if you do not want to pay up. Last year, Adam Duvall slugged for an entire season. This season, Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge have already combined for 20 bombs. Will they remain relevant all season like the 2016 Duvall, or fall into obscurity like so many before them?

As always, ownership rates provided are from FleaFlicker formats.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Joey Gallo (3B, TEX) 31% Owned

Gallo's eight home runs put him on a pace for 40, but his .207/.324/.552 triple slash line in 102 PAs is underwhelming. In evaluating Gallo, we need to answer two questions. First, can he continue his current pace and make 40 homers a reality? Second, can he bring the average up to an acceptable level?

The answer to the first question is a resounding yes. Where most sluggers look to elevate 40 percent of their batted balls, Gallo has a fly ball rate of 58 percent. Amazingly, this rate is in keeping with his minor league history where Gallo consistently posted FB% marks above 50 percent. His current 27.6 percent HR/FB is also supported by his minor league numbers, suggesting that Gallo's power game is translating perfectly to the majors. Finally, his 12 Barrels have him tied for eighth in the league with Joey Votto and Khris Davis. That's pretty good company to keep.

The answer to the second question is an equally resounding no. Gallo's current 36.3 percent K-rate is actually an improvement over his career mark of 44.3 percent, indicating the trouble he's had with putting the ball in play. He probably won't revert to his career average, as he historically gets a little bit better when repeating a level. His first exposure to Double-A in 2014 yielded a K% of 39.5 percent that fell to 33.6 percent when he repeated the level in 2015. Likewise, his 39.5 percent K% at Triple-A in 2015 fell to 34.6 percent when he repeated the level last year. All of these K% are still too high and the underlying 15.8 percent SwStr% is far from encouraging, but at least it won't get worse.

Gallo also profiles as a low-BABIP guy, so his current .238 BABIP may not improve significantly. He generally ran LD% rates in the upper teens on the farm, limiting the growth potential of his 14 percent LD%. The few liners he has hit have produced a BABIP of .857 so far, a number more likely to go down than up. He also pulls 71.4 percent of his ground balls, allowing opposing teams to shift against him virtually every time he steps up to the plate. This has limited his BABIP on ground balls to .214, making a league-average BABIP impossible to achieve.

Gallo has four stolen bases this year, improving his professional success rate to 40-for-44, including a perfect eight-for-eight at the MLB level. There is no reason to red light him when his success rate is this strong, and he has swiped as many as 15 bags in a minor league campaign (2013), so Gallo's SB look like the real deal. He has also been promoted to the sixth slot in Texas's batting order, up from the seventh and eighth spots he started the year in. It's still not great for fantasy, but a couple more promotions would give him serious counting stat potential.

Overall, Gallo's current line is a strong indicator of what to expect moving forward. He'll strikeout too much and underperform on balls in play, but hit plenty of dingers and steal the occasional bag. A lot of fantasy rosters could use that kind of production, so he should really be owned in more than a quarter of leagues.

Verdict: Champ

 

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) 76% Owned

Judge's start has been loud, as he has hit .313/.424/.795 with 12 homers in 99 PAs so far. He should obviously be owned in all formats, leading me to conclude that 24 percent of FleaFlicker leagues have been abandoned. How else could he be available in so many leagues?

The question is whether he can maintain his current pace, and sadly the answer is probably not. His elite power is the result of a 54.5 percent HR/FB that seems impossible to sustain. For comparison's sake, he posted a HR/FB of 17.6 percent at Triple-A last season. His 38.6 percent FB% is fine, but nowhere near Gallo's level. Judge was only a 20ish-HR guy throughout his minor league career, so this power surge is something of a shock. He is tied for the league lead in Barrels (15) and plays in baseball's best ballpark for power hitters, but he's still due for massive regression.

Judge's BABIP of .311 also figures to tumble. He is currently sporting a pop-up rate of 4.5 percent, significantly lower than the 22.2 percent IFFB% he posted at Triple-A last year. He's also hitting .333 against the shift despite pulling more ground balls than Gallo (79.2 percent), suggesting downside in his already-low .125 BABIP on ground balls. Judge's .818 BABIP on line drives may also prove to be unsustainable. Add in a 26.3 percent K% supported by an extremely patient approach at the plate (40.5 percent Swing%), and Judge looks like a .260 hitter at best.

Optimists could point to excellent plate discipline metrics (11.5 percent SwStr%, 23.6 percent chase rate), Yankee Stadium, and a real prospect pedigree to argue that Judge will remain elite all season, but none of them work for the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have kept Judge in the bottom half of the order throughout his hot streak, likely indicating that they are unwilling to bat him higher than sixth for any extended period of time. Judge is a clear sell-high candidate, and his value will never be higher than it is right now.

Verdict: Chump

 

More Player Outlooks




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
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John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
RANKINGS
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3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

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DEF