🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond

Rick Lucks analyzes Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond to see if they'll continue to have success or regress in 2017.

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my ongoing series of Champs or Chumbs. I take a look at different MLB players, and determine if they truly will be viable fantasy baseball assets in 2017.

Fantasy owners have a need for speed that blows the value of the stolen base way out of proportion relative to the real game. Now that Jarrod Dyson has been traded to Seattle, he may be able to provide it.

Ian Desmond signed for $70 million earlier in this offseason, but no one seems to know why. Let's take a closer look at both of these outfielders.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Jarrod Dyson (OF, SEA)

Dyson has managed to steal 30 or more bases in four separate seasons despite never recording more than 337 PAs, making him a fantastic waiver add for owners seeking steals. It also warrants speculation on the kind of fantasy numbers he could put up with a full season of PAs. It is usually foolhardy to blindly prorate a partial season of performance and use the result as a projection, but Dyson's consistent SB production leads me to conclude that 50+ would almost be a given with regular playing time.

Lest you drop a Billy Hamilton comp on him, Dyson has a clue with the bat in his hands too. His .278/.340/.388 triple slash line last year was perfectly competent, and it came when he played more than ever before. He has no power at all, but an excellent 23.9% O-Swing% produced a solid 7.7% BB% anyway. He also rarely strikes out, as his 11.6% K% last year was supported by a minuscule 5.1% SwStr%. Add in his refusal to hit the ball in the air (24.1% FB% last year) and you get a guy who can make the most of his career .314 BABIP.

The elite speed and plus plate discipline could also see him hit at the top of the Seattle order, a position that would likely add runs scored to his steals and batting average. A three-category contributor who is elite at one of them is nothing to ignore on Draft Day. If nothing else, his elite glove should keep him in the lineup to rack up swipes. Seattle does not have too much OF depth to challenge him for playing time, either.

Truth be told, I said similar things last offseason when Kansas City appeared to have cleared a starting job for him. An injury in Spring Training led to more Paulo Orlando than anyone wanted and doomed Dyson to resume his fourth outfielder role. Now that Seattle has given something up for him, they should be more incentivized to use him than Kansas City was last year. You don't trade for him without planning to give him 500 PAs, right?

Verdict: Champ

 

Ian Desmond

On the surface, Desmond's .285/.335/.446 line, 22 bombs, and 21 swipes seem well worth the price Colorado paid to acquire his services. There are a ton of red flags, however. He stopped hitting completely in the second half, posting a .237/.283/.347 line with seven homers that seems awfully similar to the .233/.290/.384 with 19 dingers he put up in 2015. He also relied heavily on his favorable home park in Arlington, producing just .241/.305/.398 on the road last year. Evidence suggests that Coors players underachieve more than expected when they leave altitude. What will that do to Desmond?

If you do not put much stock into splits, there a plenty of full season stats that argue against Desmond as well. His .350 BABIP, fueled by a LD% spike (20.6% vs. 18.2% career) and seeing eye singles (.293 BABIP on grounders vs. .276 career), seems unlikely to repeat. He also strikes out way too often (23.6% K%, 12.2% SwStr%), a problem that has plagued him throughout his career. The net result is a batting average liability, a phrase rarely used to describe a Coors player.

His power isn't trustworthy either, as his 26% FB% is simply too low to count on a lot of power out of him. Last year's pop was the result of a HR/FB spike (15.4% in 2015 to 18.2% last season) completely unsubstantiated by his approach at the plate. Most big flies are pulled, and Desmond actually pulled fewer of his fly balls (13.2%) last year than his career rate (19.2%).

A Desmond that does not hit for average or power is not worth playing, especially at 1B where he currently projects. The Rockies have an excellent outfield of David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, and Carlos Gonzalez, so they do not need Desmond's athleticism out there. His SS history is also a non-issue with Trevor Story's 2016. It is not hard to see Desmond as a more expensive Alexi Amarista, a utility player whose home park is the only reason to consider him in fantasy. Desmond should not even be drafted in shallow formats.

Verdict: Chump

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

George Kittle

Suffered Torn Achilles on Sunday
Aaron Holiday

is Moving into Starting Five
Aaron Gordon

is Available on Sunday
Christian Braun

is Downgraded to Out
Jamal Murray

is Unavailable on Sunday
Omarion Hampton

Active for Wild-Card Round Against Patriots
Kristaps Porzingis

Won't Play on Sunday
Kevin Porter Jr.

is Available to Play on Sunday
Christian Braun

Downgraded to Questionable on Sunday
Tyler Herro

to Suit Up on Sunday
Norman Powell

Ruled Out for Sunday's Game
Victor Wembanyama

Cleared for Sunday
George Kittle

Ruled Out After Non-Contact Achilles Injury
Cole Perfetti

Contributes Two Assists in Sunday's Win
Carl Grundstrom

Misses Sunday's Practice
Jrue Holiday

Cleared to Suit Up Versus New York
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Request Interview With Ejiro Evero
Josh Hart

Returning on Sunday Night
Travis Konecny

Hurt at Sunday's Practice
Thatcher Demko

Lands on Injured Reserve
Colin Miller

Injured Versus Devils
Bryan Rust

Remains Out Sunday
Morgan Geekie

Won't Play Sunday
Los Angeles Rams

Mike LaFleur to Interview With Raiders and Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers

Steelers Open to Re-Signing Aaron Rodgers?
Matthew Stafford

X-Rays Come Back Negative
Mark Stone

Extends Goal Streak With Empty-Netter
Nikita Kucherov

Has Four-Point Outing Saturday
David Pastrnak

Records Six Assists in Big Win
Stefan Noesen

to Have Knee Surgery
Carter Hart

Out Week-to-Week
Thatcher Demko

Exits With Injury Saturday
MacKenzie Gore

Yankees Pursuing Trade for MacKenzie Gore
Philip Broberg

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Alex Bregman

Cubs Sign Alex Bregman to Five-Year, $175 Millon Contract
Chet Holmgren

Available Sunday
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Suspended for Three Games for Attempting to Strike Another Player
Kristaps Porzingis

May Return Sunday
Zaccharie Risacher

to Miss Second Consecutive Game Sunday
Kevin Porter Jr.

Considered Probable for Sunday
Aaron Gordon

Likely to Play Sunday
Christian Braun

Considered Probable for Sunday
Spencer Jones

May Miss Another Game Sunday
Jamal Murray

Iffy for Sunday's Action
Freddie Freeman

Withdraws from World Baseball Classic
Chandler Stephenson

Jaden Schwartz Replaces Chandler Stephenson in Kraken Lineup
Brandon Saad

Won't Play This Weekend
Shea Theodore

Returns to Golden Knights Lineup Saturday
Jaccob Slavin

Returns Against Kraken
Travis Konecny

Ruled Out Saturday
Brad Marchand

Misses Saturday's Game
Corey Perry

Available Saturday
Max Kepler

Receives 80-Game PED Suspension
CFB

Cam Coleman Visiting Alabama on Friday
Omarion Hampton

Expects to Play Sunday Night
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Enters Transfer Portal, Trending to Land at Florida
CFB

NCAA Denies Trinidad Chambliss a Sixth Year of Eligibility
Omarion Hampton

Questionable for Wild-Card Weekend
Kyle Tucker

Mets Remain in Mix for Kyle Tucker
Ketel Marte

Will Remain With Diamondbacks
Rashee Rice

to be Reviewed Under League's Conduct Policy
Daniel Jones

Colts Plan to Re-Sign Daniel Jones
Davante Adams

Off the Injury Report, Will Play Against Carolina
Bo Bichette

Phillies to Meet With Bo Bichette
Rome Odunze

Will Return for Wild-Card Game on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Commits to Baylor
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Fire Head Coach Mike McDaniel
Sam LaPorta

Plans to be Back for Training Camp
Owen Caissie

Shipped to Miami as Centerpiece of Trade
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Officially Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
Rome Odunze

Plans to Play on Saturday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Finalizing Deal to Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
New York Giants

Giants "All-In" on Hiring John Harbaugh
CFB

Jackson Arnold Signs with UNLV
CFB

Sam Leavitt Scheduled to Visit Tennessee
New York Giants

John Harbaugh Expected to be Favorite to Become New Giants Head Coach
Baltimore Ravens

John Harbaugh Won't Return as Ravens Head Coach
Bo Bichette

Unlikely to Return to Toronto?
Jordan Love

Ready to Start in Wild-Card Game Against Bears
CFB

Jadan Baugh Staying with Florida for Junior Season
Washington Commanders

Commanders "Mutually" Parting Ways With OC Kliff Kingsbury
CFB

Byrum Brown Officially Commits to Auburn
CFB

Austin Simmons Signing with Missouri

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP