X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond

Rick Lucks analyzes Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond to see if they'll continue to have success or regress in 2017.

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my ongoing series of Champs or Chumbs. I take a look at different MLB players, and determine if they truly will be viable fantasy baseball assets in 2017.

Fantasy owners have a need for speed that blows the value of the stolen base way out of proportion relative to the real game. Now that Jarrod Dyson has been traded to Seattle, he may be able to provide it.

Ian Desmond signed for $70 million earlier in this offseason, but no one seems to know why. Let's take a closer look at both of these outfielders.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Jarrod Dyson (OF, SEA)

Dyson has managed to steal 30 or more bases in four separate seasons despite never recording more than 337 PAs, making him a fantastic waiver add for owners seeking steals. It also warrants speculation on the kind of fantasy numbers he could put up with a full season of PAs. It is usually foolhardy to blindly prorate a partial season of performance and use the result as a projection, but Dyson's consistent SB production leads me to conclude that 50+ would almost be a given with regular playing time.

Lest you drop a Billy Hamilton comp on him, Dyson has a clue with the bat in his hands too. His .278/.340/.388 triple slash line last year was perfectly competent, and it came when he played more than ever before. He has no power at all, but an excellent 23.9% O-Swing% produced a solid 7.7% BB% anyway. He also rarely strikes out, as his 11.6% K% last year was supported by a minuscule 5.1% SwStr%. Add in his refusal to hit the ball in the air (24.1% FB% last year) and you get a guy who can make the most of his career .314 BABIP.

The elite speed and plus plate discipline could also see him hit at the top of the Seattle order, a position that would likely add runs scored to his steals and batting average. A three-category contributor who is elite at one of them is nothing to ignore on Draft Day. If nothing else, his elite glove should keep him in the lineup to rack up swipes. Seattle does not have too much OF depth to challenge him for playing time, either.

Truth be told, I said similar things last offseason when Kansas City appeared to have cleared a starting job for him. An injury in Spring Training led to more Paulo Orlando than anyone wanted and doomed Dyson to resume his fourth outfielder role. Now that Seattle has given something up for him, they should be more incentivized to use him than Kansas City was last year. You don't trade for him without planning to give him 500 PAs, right?

Verdict: Champ

 

Ian Desmond

On the surface, Desmond's .285/.335/.446 line, 22 bombs, and 21 swipes seem well worth the price Colorado paid to acquire his services. There are a ton of red flags, however. He stopped hitting completely in the second half, posting a .237/.283/.347 line with seven homers that seems awfully similar to the .233/.290/.384 with 19 dingers he put up in 2015. He also relied heavily on his favorable home park in Arlington, producing just .241/.305/.398 on the road last year. Evidence suggests that Coors players underachieve more than expected when they leave altitude. What will that do to Desmond?

If you do not put much stock into splits, there a plenty of full season stats that argue against Desmond as well. His .350 BABIP, fueled by a LD% spike (20.6% vs. 18.2% career) and seeing eye singles (.293 BABIP on grounders vs. .276 career), seems unlikely to repeat. He also strikes out way too often (23.6% K%, 12.2% SwStr%), a problem that has plagued him throughout his career. The net result is a batting average liability, a phrase rarely used to describe a Coors player.

His power isn't trustworthy either, as his 26% FB% is simply too low to count on a lot of power out of him. Last year's pop was the result of a HR/FB spike (15.4% in 2015 to 18.2% last season) completely unsubstantiated by his approach at the plate. Most big flies are pulled, and Desmond actually pulled fewer of his fly balls (13.2%) last year than his career rate (19.2%).

A Desmond that does not hit for average or power is not worth playing, especially at 1B where he currently projects. The Rockies have an excellent outfield of David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, and Carlos Gonzalez, so they do not need Desmond's athleticism out there. His SS history is also a non-issue with Trevor Story's 2016. It is not hard to see Desmond as a more expensive Alexi Amarista, a utility player whose home park is the only reason to consider him in fantasy. Desmond should not even be drafted in shallow formats.

Verdict: Chump

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Darius Garland

Won't Return on Monday Night
Paul Skenes

Pirates Won't Trade Paul Skenes
Joe Burrow

Could Return for Thanksgiving Game
Pete Alonso

Mets Expected to Let Pete Alonso Walk in Free Agency
Jared McCain

Available Tuesday Against Celtics
Kyle Tucker

to Sign With Yankees, Blue Jays, or Dodgers
Sam Hauser

Probable Tuesday Versus Philadelphia
Day'Ron Sharpe

Questionable Versus Raptors
Drake Baldwin

Named NL Rookie of the Year
Patrick Williams

Active Versus San Antonio
Kyle Hendricks

Hanging Up his Cleats After 12 Seasons
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Available Versus Dallas
Dereck Lively II

Still Sidelined on Monday
Freddy Peralta

Red Sox Linked to Freddy Peralta
Josh Giddey

Ruled Out Against Spurs
Nick Kurtz

Named AL Rookie of the Year
Daniel Gafford

Available Versus Milwaukee
Anthony Davis

Out Again on Monday
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Won't Open Brandon Aiyuk's Practice Window This Week
Matthew Golden

Officially Out Against Eagles
TreVeyon Henderson

on Week 11 Injury Report With Knee Injury
Matthew Golden

Not Expected to Play on Monday Night
Casey Mittelstadt

Out Week-to-Week
Garrett Wilson

Expected to Miss 3-4 Weeks With Knee Sprain
Jason Zucker

Dealing With Severe Viral Issue
Jiri Kulich

to "Miss Significant Time" Due to Blood Clot
Zack MacEwen

to Re-Enter Devils Lineup Monday
William Karlsson

Out on Monday
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

to Miss at Least One Week
Vincent Trocheck

Available Monday
Isiah Pacheco

May Not be Ready to Return in Week 11
Dalton Kincaid

Labeled Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Oronde Gadsden

Diagnosed With Bruised Quad, Considered "Day-to-Day"
Rashod Bateman

Dealing With a Sprained Ankle
Jayden Daniels

Won't Travel to Madrid in Week 11
Terry McLaurin

Won't Play in Week 11
Miles Bridges

Probable Monday vs. Lakers
Austin Reaves

Upgraded Ahead of Monday's Matchup
Trey Hendrickson

Doubtful to Play in Week 11
Taylor Hendricks

Questionable for Matchup with Timberwolves
Luke Kornet

Questionable for Matchup With Bulls
Jalen Suggs

to Rest Monday Vs. Portland
Taurean Prince

Out With Herniated Disc in his Neck
Joe Burrow

Returning to Practice This Week
New York Giants

Giants Fire Head Coach Brian Daboll
Chris Godwin

No Timetable for Chris Godwin's Return
Bucky Irving

Could Miss Week 11
C.J. Stroud

Remains in the Concussion Protocol
CFB

Nic Anderson Could Return for LSU this Season
Dante Exum

Remains Out vs. Bucks
Patrick Williams

Probable Monday vs. Spurs
Day'Ron Sharpe

Exits With Hamstring Tightness vs. Knicks
Daron Payne

Suspended One Game For Unsportsmanlike Conduct
Stephen Curry

Expected to Return Tuesday vs. Thunder
T.J. McConnell

Ramping Up, Nearing Season Debut
Lukas Dostal

Pushes Winning Streak to Career-Best Six Games
Matt Boldy

Has Two-Point Night Sunday
Jesper Wallstedt

Controls Flames
Nikolaj Ehlers

Registers Two Assists Sunday
Connor Bedard

Extends Scoring Streak With Three-Point Effort
Nathan MacKinnon

Totals Five Points in Overtime Win
Charles-Alexis Legault

Suffers Hand Injury Sunday
Parker Washington

Scores Two Touchdowns in Week 10 Loss
Ladd McConkey

Leads Chargers With 107 Yards, Touchdown in Week 10 Win
Emmanuel Clase

Indicted on Gambling Charges, Facing 65 Years in Prison
Randy Brown

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Gabriel Bonfim

Extends His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Schnell

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Muslim Salikhov

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Uros Medic

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ismael Bonfim

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Chris Padilla

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Kasperi Kapanen

Targeting December Return
Mattias Janmark

Likely to Make Season Debut Monday
Zach Hyman

to Remain Out Monday
Ryan Strome

Available Sunday
Cole Perfetti

in Line for Season Debut Sunday
Pierre-Luc Dubois

to Miss 3-4 Months
Marco Tulio

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christian Leroy Duncan

Scores Second-Round Knockout Victory
Scott Laughton

to Miss Sunday's Action
Aaron Judge

Headlines AL Silver Slugger Award Winners
Shohei Ohtani

Headlines List of NL Silver Slugger Winners
MLB

Munetaka Murakami Officially Being Posted on Friday
Randy Brown

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Main Event
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Joseph Morales

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 111
Matt Schnell

Set For UFC Vegas 111 Co-Main Event
Uros Medic

Aims To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Muslim Salikhov

Looks For His Fourth Consecutive Win
Chris Padilla

Looks To Remain Unbeaten In The UFC
Ismael Bonfim

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Marco Tulio

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Christian Leroy Duncan

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 111 Main Card
Kyle Tucker

Headlines List of 13 Players to Receive Qualifying Offers
Pete Fairbanks

Becomes a Free Agent
CFB

Luke Fickell Will Return as Wisconsin's Head Coach in 2026
Bo Bichette

Blue Jays Extend Qualifying Offer to Bo Bichette
Craig Stammen

Named Padres New Manager
Jorge Polanco

Declines his 2026 Option to Become a Free Agent
Chris Sale

Braves Picking Up Chris Sale's 2026 Option
Michael Thorbjornsen

Poised to Continue Hot Play in Mexico
Davis Riley

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of World Wide Technology Championship
Taylor Montgomery

Leaning on Putter at World Wide Technology Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Offers Strong Value at World Wide Technology Championship
Ben Griffin

Looks to Stay Hot at El Cardonal
Nick Dunlap

Looking to Find His Game at El Cardonal
Wyndham Clark

Searching for Consistency at El Cardonal
Michael Brennan

Aims to Extend Fairytale Start at El Cardonal
Shane Bieber

Staying in Toronto for 2026
Salvador Perez

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Royals

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP