🦃 BLACK FRIDAY - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond

Rick Lucks analyzes Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond to see if they'll continue to have success or regress in 2017.

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my ongoing series of Champs or Chumbs. I take a look at different MLB players, and determine if they truly will be viable fantasy baseball assets in 2017.

Fantasy owners have a need for speed that blows the value of the stolen base way out of proportion relative to the real game. Now that Jarrod Dyson has been traded to Seattle, he may be able to provide it.

Ian Desmond signed for $70 million earlier in this offseason, but no one seems to know why. Let's take a closer look at both of these outfielders.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Jarrod Dyson (OF, SEA)

Dyson has managed to steal 30 or more bases in four separate seasons despite never recording more than 337 PAs, making him a fantastic waiver add for owners seeking steals. It also warrants speculation on the kind of fantasy numbers he could put up with a full season of PAs. It is usually foolhardy to blindly prorate a partial season of performance and use the result as a projection, but Dyson's consistent SB production leads me to conclude that 50+ would almost be a given with regular playing time.

Lest you drop a Billy Hamilton comp on him, Dyson has a clue with the bat in his hands too. His .278/.340/.388 triple slash line last year was perfectly competent, and it came when he played more than ever before. He has no power at all, but an excellent 23.9% O-Swing% produced a solid 7.7% BB% anyway. He also rarely strikes out, as his 11.6% K% last year was supported by a minuscule 5.1% SwStr%. Add in his refusal to hit the ball in the air (24.1% FB% last year) and you get a guy who can make the most of his career .314 BABIP.

The elite speed and plus plate discipline could also see him hit at the top of the Seattle order, a position that would likely add runs scored to his steals and batting average. A three-category contributor who is elite at one of them is nothing to ignore on Draft Day. If nothing else, his elite glove should keep him in the lineup to rack up swipes. Seattle does not have too much OF depth to challenge him for playing time, either.

Truth be told, I said similar things last offseason when Kansas City appeared to have cleared a starting job for him. An injury in Spring Training led to more Paulo Orlando than anyone wanted and doomed Dyson to resume his fourth outfielder role. Now that Seattle has given something up for him, they should be more incentivized to use him than Kansas City was last year. You don't trade for him without planning to give him 500 PAs, right?

Verdict: Champ

 

Ian Desmond

On the surface, Desmond's .285/.335/.446 line, 22 bombs, and 21 swipes seem well worth the price Colorado paid to acquire his services. There are a ton of red flags, however. He stopped hitting completely in the second half, posting a .237/.283/.347 line with seven homers that seems awfully similar to the .233/.290/.384 with 19 dingers he put up in 2015. He also relied heavily on his favorable home park in Arlington, producing just .241/.305/.398 on the road last year. Evidence suggests that Coors players underachieve more than expected when they leave altitude. What will that do to Desmond?

If you do not put much stock into splits, there a plenty of full season stats that argue against Desmond as well. His .350 BABIP, fueled by a LD% spike (20.6% vs. 18.2% career) and seeing eye singles (.293 BABIP on grounders vs. .276 career), seems unlikely to repeat. He also strikes out way too often (23.6% K%, 12.2% SwStr%), a problem that has plagued him throughout his career. The net result is a batting average liability, a phrase rarely used to describe a Coors player.

His power isn't trustworthy either, as his 26% FB% is simply too low to count on a lot of power out of him. Last year's pop was the result of a HR/FB spike (15.4% in 2015 to 18.2% last season) completely unsubstantiated by his approach at the plate. Most big flies are pulled, and Desmond actually pulled fewer of his fly balls (13.2%) last year than his career rate (19.2%).

A Desmond that does not hit for average or power is not worth playing, especially at 1B where he currently projects. The Rockies have an excellent outfield of David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, and Carlos Gonzalez, so they do not need Desmond's athleticism out there. His SS history is also a non-issue with Trevor Story's 2016. It is not hard to see Desmond as a more expensive Alexi Amarista, a utility player whose home park is the only reason to consider him in fantasy. Desmond should not even be drafted in shallow formats.

Verdict: Chump

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Tyler Warren

Expected to Play in Week 13
Jalen McMillan

Cleared to Practice
Aaron Rodgers

Set to Play on Sunday
Joel Hofer

Shuts Out Mammoth
Owen Tippett

Amasses Three Points in Saturday's Win
Stuart Skinner

Bounces Back With Shutout
Brock Nelson

Notches Four Points in Big Win
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Logan Cooley

Hurt in Saturday's Loss
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Play in Week 13
Bucky Irving

Trending Toward Suiting Up
Chris Olave

Should Play Vs. Dolphins
P.J. Washington

Ruled Out Versus Clippers
Trae Young

"Progressing Well," Will be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Isaiah Hartenstein

Sidelined a Minimum of 10-14 Days
Daniel Gafford

Resting Against Clippers
Jalen Duren

Won't Play Versus Miami
Warren Foegele

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Simon Benoit

Won't Play Saturday
Henri Jokiharju

Lands on Injured Reserve
Anthony Davis

Ruled Out on Saturday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Pavel Zacha

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
David Pastrnak

Out for Second Consecutive Game
William Nylander

Available Saturday
Shedeur Sanders

Could Start for Browns for the Rest of the Season
Kyle Palmieri

Out for 6-8 Months With Torn ACL
Darren Waller

Activated from Injured Reserve, Will Play in Week 13
Amon-Ra St. Brown

"Day-to-Day" With Ankle Injury, Status for Week 14 Unclear
Neemias Queta

Uncertain for Saturday's Game in Minnesota
Derrick White

Expected to Suit Up Versus Timberwolves
Jaylen Brown

Might Miss Saturday's Game
Tyler Warren

Added to Injury Report, Questionable With Illness
Baker Mayfield

Expected to Play in Week 13
Jake Walman

Sidelined for Third Consecutive Game
Jack Roslovic

to Miss Two Weeks
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

to Return Saturday
Mattias Samuelsson

in Concussion Protocol
Kyle Palmieri

Sustains Lower-Body Injury
Lukas Dostal

Ruled Out for 2-3 Weeks
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Test Confirm Low-Ankle Sprain for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Anthony Davis

Available, Will be on a Minutes Restriction
Kyle Monangai

Leads Bears Backfield in Impressive Week 13 Performance
D'Andre Swift

Goes Over 100 Rushing Yards, Finds End Zone in Win Over Eagles
A.J. Brown

Goes Over 100 Yards Again, Scores Twice on Friday
Kyshawn George

Returns to Lineup After One-Game Absence
Paul George

Set To Start Friday Against Nets
Kevin Huerter

Set to Return Against Charlotte
Jarrett Allen

Back in Action on Friday
Coby White

Cleared for Action on Friday
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Suiting Up Against Charlotte
Trey Murphy III

Uncertain For Saturday's Matchup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Returning Versus Knicks
Jaden Ivey

Set To Play Against Orlando
Adem Bona

Back on Friday Night
Andrew Nembhard

Won't Play Versus Washington
Kenneth Walker III

Good to Go for Week 13
Brian Thomas Jr.

Good to Go Sunday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Questionable for Week 13
Bucky Irving

Fully Practices Friday, Listed as Questionable for Week 13
Omarion Hampton

Ruled Out for Week 13
Baker Mayfield

Practices in Full Friday, Listed as Questionable for Week 13
Kirill Marchenko

Misses Third Straight Game
Jaden Schwartz

to Miss Six Weeks
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte
J.T. Realmuto

Red Sox Showing Interest in J.T. Realmuto
Sonny Gray

Red Sox Acquire Sonny Gray From the Cardinals
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Makai Lemon, Skyler Bell Named Biletnikoff Award Finalists
Shohei Ohtani

to Play for Team Japan in 2026 World Baseball Classic
Colorado Rockies

Warren Schaeffer to Stick Around as Rockies Manager in 2026
CFB

Chris Bell Out for Rivalry Matchup Against Kentucky

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP