👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Brandon Kintzler & Yasiel Puig

Regular readers may notice that "ADP" is no longer in the title. The first week of the season has come and gone, so if you still have not completed your fantasy draft, it is looking likely that you are not playing fantasy baseball this year. That said, I liked the idea of ADP conveying how available and/or costly a given player is, so I'm replacing it with ownership rates. They should give you a rough idea of if a given guy is on your waiver wire or his cost to acquire via a trade.

This week, we look at two players whose current ownership rates are way out of line with their fantasy value. Minnesota closer Brandon Kintzler is owned in just 19 percent of leagues despite clearly holding the closer role. Yasiel Puig is owned in 69 percent of leagues despite having the talent and future playing time of a fourth outfielder.

Let's take a closer look at how I reached the above conclusions.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Brandon Kintzler (RP, MIN) 19% Owned

Kintzler has three 2017 saves as of this writing to go with the 17 he compiled with a 3.15 ERA last season. He doesn't get many Ks (15.6 percent K% last year), but plenty of pitchers get those in bunches. Only 30 generate saves at any given time, and most of them are costly to acquire after the season starts. Kintzler's ERA is good enough to not hurt you, allowing his saves to help you compete in the category.

Many owners expect Kintzler to lose the gig because of his lack of Ks, but I don't think he will. Kintzler throws his sinker a whopping 82.2 percent of the time, relying on its 63.8 percent GB% to induce easy grounder after easy grounder. This extreme ground ball tendency (61.9 percent GB% last year, 62.5 percent in 2015) protects Kintzler from allowing a dramatic late-inning home run, the event most likely to push a manager to make a change. He'll still blow the occasional opportunity, but three singles aren't as traumatizing as a big blast.

It may also be possible for Kintzler to up his K% a little. He features a slider (18.2 percent SwStr%, 45.7 percent chase last year) and changeup (15.6 percent SwStr%, 53.9 percent chase), both of which seem to offer considerable K upside. It is possible that these pitches succeed only because batters are not expecting them, as Kintzler threw just 55 sliders and 32 changes all of last season. Still, they should enable Kintzler to get a strikeout when he really needs one.

Finally, replacing Kintzler would force the Twins to name a successor to the role. The rookies most frequently cited as possibilities would receive significantly higher arbitration salaries if they could point to saves, an expense that the rebuilding Twins have no reason to take on right now. Ryan Pressler looks more like a closer than Kintzler does, but his 3.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 20.4 percent K% last season seem unlikely to force a move. That leaves only uninspiring options like Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow in Minnesota's pen. Kintzler's job, and roto value, are safe.

Verdict: Champ

 

Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD) 69% Owned

I have consistently panned Puig since I started contributing to RotoBaller, but his ADP of 218.5 this year had me convinced that fantasy owners finally realized his early career success was luck-based and never coming back. Then he hit three homers in two days, causing everyone to assume he made a Justin Turner-style adjustment to finally tap into his limitless potential. He has not.

Justin Turner went from 25th man to All-Star slugger by elevating the ball more, allowing him to hit fly balls that offered a much higher slugging percentage than his grounder-heavy profile was previously generating. Puig's FB% is 33.3 percent so far in 2017, a little lower than last year's 35.1 percent mark. I also question the common wisdom that Puig has a ton of untapped power potential, as his 6.7 percent Brls/BBE was well below average last year. Puig hit for some power because Jered Weaver threw him BP during a game. Trevor Cahill, Puig's other victim, isn't exactly an ace either.

If Puig has to face MLB-caliber pitching, he will revert to the uninspiring .263/.323/.416 line with 11 homers and five steals he posted last year. That's not enough power or speed to interest fantasy owners, and he needed a favorable 20.1 percent K-rate to produce that average. In all likelihood, his 13.5 percent SwStr% will produce more Ks going forward. It would take much more than last year's .306 BABIP to prevent Puig's average from being a negative in that case.

LA's enviable depth could also rob Puig of a starting gig. The team has the makings of two strong outfield platoons with Andrew Toles and Andre Ethier as lefties and Franklin Gutierrez and Scott Van Slyke from the right side, which is a full outfield after Joc Pederson is considered. Puig started out the 2017 season by hitting eighth, suggesting that the team had less confidence in him than all of their other Opening Day players. They've also tried to trade him at every opportunity. Puig spent a portion of 2016 in the minors, and will return there this year if the Dodgers are again unable to trade him.

Trade this clubhouse cancer if you can, but you'll probably need to dump him for nothing if you bought into his hot start. At least you'll get the roster spot back, right?

Verdict: Chump

 

 

More Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Patrick Fishburn

Looking for a Spark at Cognizant Classic
Blades Brown

Set for Cognizant Classic Debut
Michael Thorbjornsen

Looking to Bounce Back at Cognizant Classic
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Expect Maxx Crosby to Return
Nino Niederreiter

Out Week-to-Week
Shane Smith

Locked into the Starting Rotation in Chicago After 2025 Emergence
Neal Pionk

Out Week-to-Week With New Injury
Dominic Canzone

Can Dominic Canzone Build on 2025 Breakout?
Noah Hanifin

Unavailable Wednesday
Konnor Griffin

Slugs Two Home Runs on Tuesday
Jack Eichel

to Miss Wednesday's Action
Chandler Simpson

"Tentatively" Scheduled to Make Spring Debut on Friday
John Tavares

Expected to Play Wednesday
Samuel Girard

Penguins Acquire Samuel Girard From Avalanche
Brandon Woodruff

"on Track to Begin the Season in the Rotation"
Victor Hedman

Good to Go for Wednesday
Yordan Alvarez

Not Cleared to Play in Spring Games
Brayden Point

Available for Lightning
Chet Holmgren

Cleared for Action on Tuesday
Mikko Rantanen

to Miss at Least Two Weeks
Anfernee Simons

Suffers Fractured Left Wrist
Draymond Green

Won't Be Limited on Tuesday
Evan Mobley

to Remain Limited on Tuesday
Davion Mitchell

Back in Action Vs. Bucks
Daniel Gafford

Active Tuesday
Dejounte Murray

is Officially Active on Tuesday
Joel Embiid

Back In Lineup Vs. Indiana
Kam Jones

Set To Suit Up Tuesday
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic is Ruled Out on Tuesday
Shaedon Sharpe

Sidelined at Least Four More Weeks
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez's Velocity Down in Spring Debut
Pascal Siakam

Out Tuesday, Micah Potter Cleared to Play
Tristan Vukcevic

to Play on Tuesday
Billy Horschel

Looks to Improve Season at Cognizant Classic
T.J. McConnell

Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell Cleared to Play Tuesday
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Place Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Jonathan Kuminga

Set to Make Hawks Debut on Tuesday
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Slated to Suit Up Tuesday
Joe Highsmith

Returns to Defend at Cognizant Classic
Quinshon Judkins

Out of Walking Boot, Will be Ready for Training Camp
Vince Williams Jr.

Out for Remainder of Season
Jaxson Hayes

Sidelined on Tuesday
Al Horford

De'Anthony Melton Will Play Against the Pelicans, Al Horford Ruled Out
Naz Reid

Listed as Available to Play Tuesday
Jalen Smith

Will Not Play Tuesday Against the Hornets
Breece Hall

Jets Will Use Franchise Tag on Breece Hall if Extension isn't Reached
Trey Yesavage

to be on Strict Inning Limit This Season
Joel Dahmen

Needs Better Consistency Heading Into The Florida Swing
Blaine Crim

Suffers Oblique Strain
Matt Waldron

"Week-to-Week" After Undergoing Surgery
Daniel Berger

Looks to Improve Putting as PGA Tour Begins Its Florida Swing
Oneil Cruz

Looking to Improve Against Left-Handed Pitchers
Sebastian Walcott

has Internal-Brace Surgery, Out 5-6 Months
Ricky Tiedemann

to Back Off for a Week Due to Elbow Soreness
Kirk Cousins

Falcons Plan to Release Kirk Cousins
Zach Ertz

Plans to Return for 14th Season
Jameson Taillon

Can Be a Sneaky Late-Round Value
Matt Wallner

Ready for a Breakout Season?
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Looking for Healthy 2026
Ernie Clement

Expected to Play a Major Role in Toronto
Chris Sale

Signs Extension With Braves
Davis Thompson

Struggling to Find Birdies as Florida Looms
Tom Kim

Not Quite Cutting It in 2026
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Build Momentum from Scottsdale
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Returns After Extended Break for Florida Event
Carson Fulmer

Signs Minor-League Deal With Pirates
Brent Honeywell

Signs Minor-League Contract With Giants
Graham Pauley

Undergoes Imaging for Forearm Tightness
CFB

Gunner Rivers Follows His Father, Commits To North Carolina State
Will Zalatoris

Set to Make Tournament Debut at Cognizant Classic
Linus Ullmark

Available for Senators
Rasmus Hojgaard

Trending Up at the Cognizant Classic
Ryan Reaves

Sharks Activate Ryan Reaves From Injured Reserve
Charlie Lindgren

Activated From Injured Reserve Monday
Josh Norris

Cleared to Return Wednesday
Max McGreevy

Will Need to Improve on the Greens to Compete
Rico Hoey

Returns to Cognizant Classic
Austin Eckroat

Looks to Bounce Back at Cognizant Classic
Aaron Rai

Bounces Back After Rough Start to 2026 Season
Shane Lowry

Continues Playing Well Heading to Cognizant Classic
Max Homa

Has Opportunity to Continue Building Momentum at the Cognizant Classic
Ryan Gerard

Strong Approach Play Behind his Hot Start in 2026
Luke Clanton

Making Fourth Start of 2026 at Cognizant Classic
Kevin Lankinen

Unlikely to Play Wednesday
Josh Morrissey

to Miss Start of Road Trip
Mikko Rantanen

Expected to Miss Time
Anthony Hernandez

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Sean Strickland

Gets Back In The Win Column
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Planning to Use Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Geoff Neal

Suffers Back-To-Back Knockout Losses
Uros Medic

Shines At UFC Houston
Dan Ige

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Melquizael Costa

Extends His Win Streak To Six
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Falls Short of Victory at EchoPark Speedway
Carson Hocevar

Rallies to Fourth At EchoPark Speedway After Early Struggles
Ross Chastain

Finishes Third At EchoPark Speedway
Chase Briscoe

Scores First Career Top-Five Finish at EchoPark Speedway
Tyler Reddick

Nabs His Second Win of the Season At EchoPark Speedway
Joey Logano

Will Be Popular DFS Pick at EchoPark Speedway
Tyler Reddick

on Pole After Qualifying Rained Out at EchoPark Speedway
Chase Elliott

Could Chase Elliott Be Worth Rostering At EchoPark Speedway?
Ryan Blaney

Is Ryan Blaney Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
William Byron

Is William Byron Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Rondale Moore

Passes Away
Denny Hamlin

Is Worth Consideration for EchoPark Speedway DFS Lineups
Brad Keselowski

Is A Tournament Option for DFS At EchoPark Speedway
NASCAR

Is Bubba Wallace Rosterable In DFS At EchoPark Speedway?
Austin Cindric

Should DFS Managers Roster Austin Cindric at EchoPark Speedway?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Sneaky DFS Option for EchoPark Speedway?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Alex Bowman

Will Start Towards the Rear At EchoPark Speedway
Javonte Williams

Cowboys Sign Javonte Williams to Three-Year, $24 Million Extension
Joel Armia

Wraps Up Olympics With Three-Point Performance
Daniil Tarasov

Available for Panthers
Evan Rodrigues

Set to Return Next Week
Aaron Ekblad

Expected to Play Thursday
Pavel Zacha

Cleared for Action
Travis Etienne Jr.

has "Legitimate Interest" in Joining Chiefs
Zach Charbonnet

Undergoes Knee Surgery on Friday
CFB

Curt Cignetti Agrees to New Deal With Indiana, Will Earn $13.2 Million Per Year
Anthony Hernandez

Set For UFC Houston Main Event
Sean Strickland

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Uros Medic

Set For UFC Houston Co-Main Event
Geoff Neal

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Melquizael Costa

A Favorite At UFC Houston
Dan Ige

An Underdog At UFC Houston
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF