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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 4

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in relation to their ownership percentage. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

At this juncture, two things are becoming very clear: Eric Thames was a bargain in fantasy drafts and Byron Buxton is an albatross on your team. If you bought low on Thames or managed to snag him off the waiver wire, congrats. If you've had the misfortune of watching Buxton rack up Ks in your starting lineup, condolences. While April doesn't make or break a player's season, it's far enough along that we can assess players based on their current rankings.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

Early in the season, my values will be based more on ADP than performance due to small sample size. I will include one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Starter, Reliever). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 4

Taylor Motter (SS/OF, SEA) 16% owned

For a team looking to rebuild with youth, you'd think the Rays wouldn't be so keen to give away power-hitting infield prospects before the season even started. Nick Franklin and Taylor Motter were both ditched by the team and may find themselves with successful careers in new homes. Motter has already gotten started by hitting four home runs with eight RBI in just 43 at-bats. He's slugging an impressive .718, which currently leads the AL. Not bad for a temporary replacement. Motter will slide out of the shortstop spot as soon as Jean Segura returns, but he could find a home at first base or become a part-time player. He may no longer be worth starting in mixed leagues, but he's a definite hold in AL-only leagues and could be worth a bench stash.

 

Steven Souza Jr. (OF, TB) 49% owned

We know Souza won't hit anywhere close to his current .349 average by season's end, so let's get that out of the way. His .452 BABIP means regression is on its way sooner rather than later. That said, Souza's power will not go away and he could be a 25 HR waiver wire add. He is known to strikeout a ton, but Souza has been disciplined so far with an 0.56 BB/K rate that is far better than last year's 0.19 BB/K. Tampa's offense is exceeding expectations all around, but that doesn't mean there isn't long-term value here. Grab Souza for his power and run producing value as long as you know what you're getting yourself into - a likely .250 hitter with a 25/80 ceiling.

 

Michael Wacha (SP, STL) 68% owned

The fact Wacha is still available in over one-fourth of fantasy leagues shows that the recency bias is real. Wacha's 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP last year made him at best a deep sleeper in preseason drafts. Those lottery tickets are starting to pay off, as Wacha has a 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP after three starts. If not for three long balls, Wacha would be near flawless so far. It might be concerning that his fly ball rate is up to 46%, but that should settle down closer to his career mark, along with the inflated 1.45 HR/9. The best sign is that his K/BB is up to 3.45, although his command never really abandoned him. Wacha got away from his fastball last year and relied more on his changeup, which proved unsuccessful. That and he had some bad luck last year (.334 BABIP). Wacha won't blow you away in any category, but he's a solid SP4/SP5 in mixed leagues that is worth adding or buying cheap.

 

Brad Brach (RP, BAL) 61% owned

By now, Brach should be universally owned. If you haven't heard, All-Star closer and Cy Young candidate from 2016, Zach Britton, is on the DL for the foreseeable future. Brach is taking over closing duties and has been lights out so far. He has saves in three straight games to go along with the five holds he'd already accumulated. Brach has yet to allow a run and has registered 12 K in eight innings. He is the rare middle reliever who has earned an All-Star berth himself, so it should come as no surprise that he is comfortable in the ninth inning. Even if you aren't in need of saves, scoop him up and deal from your new position of strength.

 

Overrated Players - Week 4

Travis Shaw (1B/3B, MIL) 59% owned

He's on fire - pick him up! He's cold... bench him for now. He's on fire again - quick, put him back in! Such is the life of a Travis Shaw owner. After collecting a homer, four doubles and five RBI in the first three games of the season, Shaw was looking like he might be the real sleeper on the Brewers roster. Five hits in 10 games later, he's down to .200 on the season and we've forgotten about him. Another power surge has made him a top waiver pickup once more, but how long will it last? Shaw started like a house of fire last season in Boston too, hitting .314 in April, .275 in May and driving in 35 runs over the first two months. If you were a Shaw owner who didn't sell high at that point, you were sorely disappointed to see him hit .194 with only 23 RBI in 193 at-bats over the second half of the season. Shaw is not only as streaky as they come, he doesn't have the pedigree to support a breakout season. His career high was 16 HR in a minor league career that spanned five seasons. His walk rate has been declining each year, down to a low mark of 7.4% this season and he has an unsustainable 35.7% HR/FB%. Stream him through the spring, but don't hesitate to bench or sell him as soon as the next cold drought comes on.

 

Odubel Herrera (OF, PHI) 87% owned

Herrera projected to be a top-25 outfielder with a legitimate shot to go 20/20 this season. He hasn't gotten off the kind of start you'd like, hitting .264 with one homer and four RBI, although the two steals are somewhat helpful. Herrera is reaching base at a high clip thanks to an increased walk rate of 14.5%, but he's hitting ground balls at a higher rate (53.8%) and making less hard contact so far (15.4%). In a small sample size, these shouldn't be major concerns yet, but playing time could be. The Phillies have a glut of outfielders that they seem bent on rotating in and out of the lineup. Herrera himself was benched more frequently in early August last season when he was struggling, so he could lose a few at-bats here and there if he does hit a slump. Add in the fact that he isn't seeing much support behind him with Maikel Franco hitting .172 and Herrera isn't living up to his ADP. You can stay the course if you have faith in the Phillies, but I have my doubts about a team that seems uncertain about its direction.

 

Ervin Santana (SP, MIN) 90% owned

Your top-ranked fantasy pitcher after three weeks is none other than Ervin Santana. His 4.10 SIERA is drastically different than his 0.64 ERA, however, so there is bound to be some hard regression soon. Santana has only posted an ERA over 4.00 over a full season once in the last seven years, so we shouldn't expect a complete implosion. The problem is that he won't help you in enough other categories to warrant holding onto. He's striking out a league average 20% of batters, as he's done his whole career. Don't count on the wins to continue either - he only tallied seven each of the last two seasons with Minnesota. Santana has been around long enough that most seasoned fantasy players won't be fooled by a trade offer of Santana for deGrom, but it won't hurt to dangle him to a desperate MadBum owner to see what you can get in return.

 

Andrew Triggs (SP/RP, OAK) 49% owned

It's a bit surprising that more people haven't bought into the pitcher with the longest scoreless streak to start the year so far, but perhaps there's a good reason. Triggs has gone 17 2/3 scoreless already, but is only half-owned. The reason is that he doesn't have a track record of Major League success, he isn't doing much in the strikeout category (4.58 K/9), and his 4.18 SIERA suggests that he's not as good as he looks on paper. Triggs is a converted reliever who was thrown into Oakland's rotation because of Sonny Gray's absence. It looks like he will stick now, but there's little chance he keeps this up, at least at this rate. He's got a plus home park factor in his favor and is in a division with teams that are struggling offensively, so you can pick your spots with him, but don't expect him to become a staple in your rotation.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jerami Grant

Available Wednesday Night
Jalen Brunson

Returns From Two-Game Absence
Jalen Smith

Available to Play Wednesday
Tre Jones

Downgraded to Out
Shaedon Sharpe

Misses Wednesday's Game
Dereck Lively II

Cleared for Action Wednesday
Daniel Gafford

Available Wednesday
Caleb Martin

Won't Play Against Knicks
Raisel Iglesias

Returning to the Braves on One-Year Deal
Lamar Jackson

Absent Due to Ankle Injury
Marvin Bagley III

Starts on Wednesday
Mike Conley

Joins Starting Unit Wednesday
Saddiq Bey

Cleared for Wednesday's Action
Zion Williamson

Returns to Action Wednesday
Aaron Gordon

Out Wednesday
Cooper Flagg

Won't Play Wednesday
Bam Adebayo

Cleared to Play Wednesday
Tre Mann

Ruled Out Wednesday
Sam Merrill

Ruled Out for Wednesday
Jabari Smith Jr.

Active Against Cavaliers
Buddy Hield

Good to Go Wednesday
Jonathan Kuminga

Misses Fourth Consecutive Game
Alexandre Sarr

Unavailable on Wednesday
Conor Garland

to Return on Thursday
Thomas Harley

to Miss Road Trip
Eetu Luostarinen

Out Week-to-Week After Barbecue Accident
Curtis Lazar

to Miss at Least Three Games
Vladimir Tarasenko

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Mikael Granlund

Remains Out Wednesday
Charlie McAvoy

Out Indefinitely After Facial Surgery
Joe Burrow

to Potentially Return in Week 12?
Aaron Rodgers

Out on Wednesday, Hopes to Practice Thursday
Jaylen Warren

Not Seen at Wednesday's Practice
Dak Prescott

Lands on Injury Report Ahead of Week 12 With Hip Injury
Rhamondre Stevenson

Targeting a Return in Week 12?
Isiah Pacheco

Returning to Practice on Wednesday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaguars "Optimistic" About Brian Thomas Jr.'s Week 12 Status
Josh Jacobs

Will Not Practice on Wednesday
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Continue Fall Run at RSM Classic
Jayden Daniels

Commanders Considering Shutting Down Jayden Daniels?
Stephan Jaeger

Looking to Bounce Back at RSM Classic
Tom Hoge

Looking to Regain Form at RSM Classic
Joe Highsmith

Searching for Turnaround at RSM Classic
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Build on T11 Finish in Bermuda
Austin Eckroat

Searching for Momentum at RSM Classic
Joel Dahmen

Trying to Find Form at the RSM Classic
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out Again in Week 12
Drake London

Falcons Hoping That Drake London Will Return in Week 13
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful to Play Against Western Kentucky
Michael Penix Jr.

Needs Reconstructive Surgery on Torn ACL
Jaxson Dart

Expected to Return to Practice on Wednesday
Shedeur Sanders

Will Start Against Raiders
Dalton Kincaid

Ruled Out Against Texans
Connor Bedard

Continues Tear With Hat Trick
Macklin Celebrini

Pots Hat Trick in Tuesday's Win
Jake Guentzel

Records Eighth Career Hat Trick
Sammy Blais

Injured Versus Blues
Alexander Romanov

Injured in Tuesday's Win
Ryan Hartman

Considered Week-to-Week
Michael Thorbjornsen

Hopes to End 2025 Campaign With Another Solid Finish
Andrew Novak

Looks to End 2025 Season on High Note at RSM Classic
Harry Higgs

Teetering for PGA Tour Card in 2026
PGA

Nico Echavarria has the Potential to Contend at the RSM Classic
Sam Stevens

Finishing Out Year in Georgia
Seamus Power

Playing Better at the Right Time
Beau Hossler

Roller Coaster Comes to Saint Simons Island
Quade Cummins

The Time is Now for Quade Cummins in Georgia
Austin Cook

Needs a Win at the RSM Classic
Cameron Champ

on the PGA Tour Card Bubble
Grayson Rodriguez

Shipped to Angels
Taylor Ward

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward From Angels
Shota Imanaga

Accepts Cubs Qualifying Offer
Brandon Woodruff

Returning to Milwaukee in 2026
Denny McCarthy

Looking For Another Solid Finish at RSM Classic
Si Woo Kim

Looking To Use Current Momentum to Flip Script at RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Good Bounce-Back Candidate at RSM Classic
Harris English

Making 14th Start at This Week's RSM Classic
Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer
Odell Beckham Jr.

Officially Reinstated by NFL Commissioner
Matt Murray

to Miss Six Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
Ilya Lyubushkin

Out on Tuesday
Jamie Benn

Makes Season Debut Tuesday
Evgenii Dadonov

on Track to Return Tuesday
Dougie Hamilton

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Anthony Cirelli

Expected to Return Against Devils
Victor Hedman

Questionable for Tuesday
Auston Matthews

to Miss at Least Two More Games
C.J. Stroud

Expected to Return in Week 13 Against Colts
C.J. Stroud

to Miss Another Game
Joe Mixon

Uncertainty Remains Around Joe Mixon's Return Timeline
Jaylen Warren

Mike Tomlin Optimistic About Jaylen Warren's Availability for Week 12
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year
Islam Makhachev

Set For UFC 322 Main Event
Jack Della Maddalena

Set For His First Title Defense
Zhang Weili

Can Become The New Women's Flyweight Champion
Valentina Shevchenko

Set For UFC 322 Co-Main Event
Michael Morales

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Mario Craver a Game-Time Decision for Week 12
Sean Brady

Set For Title Eliminator Bout
Carlos Prates

A Favorite At UFC 322
Leon Edwards

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set To Open Up UFC 322 Main Card
Beneil Dariush

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
CFB

Virginia's Chandler Morris Trending Toward Facing Duke on Saturday

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