🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 4

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in relation to their ownership percentage. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

At this juncture, two things are becoming very clear: Eric Thames was a bargain in fantasy drafts and Byron Buxton is an albatross on your team. If you bought low on Thames or managed to snag him off the waiver wire, congrats. If you've had the misfortune of watching Buxton rack up Ks in your starting lineup, condolences. While April doesn't make or break a player's season, it's far enough along that we can assess players based on their current rankings.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

Early in the season, my values will be based more on ADP than performance due to small sample size. I will include one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Starter, Reliever). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 4

Taylor Motter (SS/OF, SEA) 16% owned

For a team looking to rebuild with youth, you'd think the Rays wouldn't be so keen to give away power-hitting infield prospects before the season even started. Nick Franklin and Taylor Motter were both ditched by the team and may find themselves with successful careers in new homes. Motter has already gotten started by hitting four home runs with eight RBI in just 43 at-bats. He's slugging an impressive .718, which currently leads the AL. Not bad for a temporary replacement. Motter will slide out of the shortstop spot as soon as Jean Segura returns, but he could find a home at first base or become a part-time player. He may no longer be worth starting in mixed leagues, but he's a definite hold in AL-only leagues and could be worth a bench stash.

 

Steven Souza Jr. (OF, TB) 49% owned

We know Souza won't hit anywhere close to his current .349 average by season's end, so let's get that out of the way. His .452 BABIP means regression is on its way sooner rather than later. That said, Souza's power will not go away and he could be a 25 HR waiver wire add. He is known to strikeout a ton, but Souza has been disciplined so far with an 0.56 BB/K rate that is far better than last year's 0.19 BB/K. Tampa's offense is exceeding expectations all around, but that doesn't mean there isn't long-term value here. Grab Souza for his power and run producing value as long as you know what you're getting yourself into - a likely .250 hitter with a 25/80 ceiling.

 

Michael Wacha (SP, STL) 68% owned

The fact Wacha is still available in over one-fourth of fantasy leagues shows that the recency bias is real. Wacha's 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP last year made him at best a deep sleeper in preseason drafts. Those lottery tickets are starting to pay off, as Wacha has a 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP after three starts. If not for three long balls, Wacha would be near flawless so far. It might be concerning that his fly ball rate is up to 46%, but that should settle down closer to his career mark, along with the inflated 1.45 HR/9. The best sign is that his K/BB is up to 3.45, although his command never really abandoned him. Wacha got away from his fastball last year and relied more on his changeup, which proved unsuccessful. That and he had some bad luck last year (.334 BABIP). Wacha won't blow you away in any category, but he's a solid SP4/SP5 in mixed leagues that is worth adding or buying cheap.

 

Brad Brach (RP, BAL) 61% owned

By now, Brach should be universally owned. If you haven't heard, All-Star closer and Cy Young candidate from 2016, Zach Britton, is on the DL for the foreseeable future. Brach is taking over closing duties and has been lights out so far. He has saves in three straight games to go along with the five holds he'd already accumulated. Brach has yet to allow a run and has registered 12 K in eight innings. He is the rare middle reliever who has earned an All-Star berth himself, so it should come as no surprise that he is comfortable in the ninth inning. Even if you aren't in need of saves, scoop him up and deal from your new position of strength.

 

Overrated Players - Week 4

Travis Shaw (1B/3B, MIL) 59% owned

He's on fire - pick him up! He's cold... bench him for now. He's on fire again - quick, put him back in! Such is the life of a Travis Shaw owner. After collecting a homer, four doubles and five RBI in the first three games of the season, Shaw was looking like he might be the real sleeper on the Brewers roster. Five hits in 10 games later, he's down to .200 on the season and we've forgotten about him. Another power surge has made him a top waiver pickup once more, but how long will it last? Shaw started like a house of fire last season in Boston too, hitting .314 in April, .275 in May and driving in 35 runs over the first two months. If you were a Shaw owner who didn't sell high at that point, you were sorely disappointed to see him hit .194 with only 23 RBI in 193 at-bats over the second half of the season. Shaw is not only as streaky as they come, he doesn't have the pedigree to support a breakout season. His career high was 16 HR in a minor league career that spanned five seasons. His walk rate has been declining each year, down to a low mark of 7.4% this season and he has an unsustainable 35.7% HR/FB%. Stream him through the spring, but don't hesitate to bench or sell him as soon as the next cold drought comes on.

 

Odubel Herrera (OF, PHI) 87% owned

Herrera projected to be a top-25 outfielder with a legitimate shot to go 20/20 this season. He hasn't gotten off the kind of start you'd like, hitting .264 with one homer and four RBI, although the two steals are somewhat helpful. Herrera is reaching base at a high clip thanks to an increased walk rate of 14.5%, but he's hitting ground balls at a higher rate (53.8%) and making less hard contact so far (15.4%). In a small sample size, these shouldn't be major concerns yet, but playing time could be. The Phillies have a glut of outfielders that they seem bent on rotating in and out of the lineup. Herrera himself was benched more frequently in early August last season when he was struggling, so he could lose a few at-bats here and there if he does hit a slump. Add in the fact that he isn't seeing much support behind him with Maikel Franco hitting .172 and Herrera isn't living up to his ADP. You can stay the course if you have faith in the Phillies, but I have my doubts about a team that seems uncertain about its direction.

 

Ervin Santana (SP, MIN) 90% owned

Your top-ranked fantasy pitcher after three weeks is none other than Ervin Santana. His 4.10 SIERA is drastically different than his 0.64 ERA, however, so there is bound to be some hard regression soon. Santana has only posted an ERA over 4.00 over a full season once in the last seven years, so we shouldn't expect a complete implosion. The problem is that he won't help you in enough other categories to warrant holding onto. He's striking out a league average 20% of batters, as he's done his whole career. Don't count on the wins to continue either - he only tallied seven each of the last two seasons with Minnesota. Santana has been around long enough that most seasoned fantasy players won't be fooled by a trade offer of Santana for deGrom, but it won't hurt to dangle him to a desperate MadBum owner to see what you can get in return.

 

Andrew Triggs (SP/RP, OAK) 49% owned

It's a bit surprising that more people haven't bought into the pitcher with the longest scoreless streak to start the year so far, but perhaps there's a good reason. Triggs has gone 17 2/3 scoreless already, but is only half-owned. The reason is that he doesn't have a track record of Major League success, he isn't doing much in the strikeout category (4.58 K/9), and his 4.18 SIERA suggests that he's not as good as he looks on paper. Triggs is a converted reliever who was thrown into Oakland's rotation because of Sonny Gray's absence. It looks like he will stick now, but there's little chance he keeps this up, at least at this rate. He's got a plus home park factor in his favor and is in a division with teams that are struggling offensively, so you can pick your spots with him, but don't expect him to become a staple in your rotation.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

P.J. Washington

is Ruled Out for Thursday's Contest
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

is Returning on Thursday
Daniel Jones

Colts Plan to Re-Sign Daniel Jones
Darius Garland

to Play on Thursday
Anthony Edwards

Active Thursday
Coby White

to Play with Minutes Limit on Thursday
Ace Bailey

Sidelined on Thursday
Kevin Huerter

Won't Play on Thursday
Andrew Nembhard

Won't Play on Thursday
Brandon Miller

is Cleared for Thursday's Game
LaMelo Ball

Upgraded to Available on Thursday
Kevin Love

Available For Thursday
Kawhi Leonard

Suffers Ankle Injury, Considered Questionable for Friday
Jamie Drysdale

Unavailable Against Maple Leafs
Bobby Brink

Sits Out Thursday
Simon Nemec

Back for Devils Thursday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Questionable For Thursday Against Mavs
Troy Terry

Misses Thursday's Game
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere Good to Go Against Sabres
Brad Marchand

Out Thursday
Ace Bailey

Considered Questionable Versus Dallas
Evgeni Malkin

Set to Return Thursday
Anthony Edwards

Questionable for Thursday
Davante Adams

Off the Injury Report, Will Play Against Carolina
Bo Bichette

Phillies to Meet With Bo Bichette
Rome Odunze

Will Return for Wild-Card Game on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Commits to Baylor
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Fire Head Coach Mike McDaniel
Matvei Michkov

Expected to Play Thursday
Alex Lyon

to Miss at Least One More Week
Mason Marchment

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere Battling Illness, Iffy for Thursday
J.T. Miller

Likely to Return Thursday
Adam Henrique

Out Through Olympic Break
Dean Wade

Ruled Out Thursday
Brandon Williams

Questionable for Thursday
P.J. Washington

Doubtful Thursday
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Questionable Thursday
Donovan Mitchell

Available Thursday
Corey Kispert

Hawks Land Corey Kispert
Sam LaPorta

Plans to be Back for Training Camp
Owen Caissie

Shipped to Miami as Centerpiece of Trade
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Officially Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
Nathan Walker

Ready to End 16-Game Absence
Rutger McGroarty

Out Indefinitely With Concussion
Kevin Stenlund

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Ty Dellandrea

Ruled Out Wednesday
Adam Erne

Misses Wednesday's Action
Tom Wilson

Aliaksei Protas Won't Play Wednesday
Anze Kopitar

Out Wednesday
Rome Odunze

Plans to Play on Saturday
Edward Cabrera

Cubs Finalizing Deal to Acquire Edward Cabrera From Marlins
New York Giants

Giants "All-In" on Hiring John Harbaugh
CFB

Jackson Arnold Signs with UNLV
CFB

Sam Leavitt Scheduled to Visit Tennessee
Devon Toews

to Miss at Least Two Weeks
New York Giants

John Harbaugh Expected to be Favorite to Become New Giants Head Coach
Baltimore Ravens

John Harbaugh Won't Return as Ravens Head Coach
Bo Bichette

Unlikely to Return to Toronto?
Jordan Love

Ready to Start in Wild-Card Game Against Bears
CFB

Jadan Baugh Staying with Florida for Junior Season
Washington Commanders

Commanders "Mutually" Parting Ways With OC Kliff Kingsbury
CFB

Byrum Brown Officially Commits to Auburn
CFB

Austin Simmons Signing with Missouri
CFB

Ty Simpson Undecided on 2026 Plans
CFB

Quarterback AJ Hill Following Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Have Requested an Interview With Klint Kubiak
Deshaun Watson

Browns Expect Deshaun Watson to be on the Team Next Year
Wan'Dale Robinson

Dealing With Fractured Ribs
Cam Skattebo

Hopes to be Back by Training Camp
Cameron Ward

Won't Need Surgery on his Shoulder
Davante Adams

Rams Expect Davante Adams to Return in Wild-Card Round
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Fire Head Coach Jonathan Gannon
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Fire Head Coach Pete Carroll
Malik Nabers

Unsure if He Will Be Ready for Week 1 of 2026 Season
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss Will Return to Ole Miss If Granted Sixth Year of Eligibility
Cincinnati Bengals

Zac Taylor Will Return as Bengals Head Coach in 2026
Bo Bichette

Phillies Have Interest in Bo Bichette
Kansas City Royals

Matt Quatraro Signs Three-Year Extension With Royals
CFB

Transfer QB Billy Edwards Commits to North Carolina
CFB

Sam Leavitt Visiting Texas Tech on Saturday
CFB

DJ Lagway Expected To Visit Florida State
Kyle Tucker

Blue Jays "Remain the Favorite" to Sign Kyle Tucker

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP