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Contact Rate Risers & Fallers for Week 2 - Buy or Sell?

Contact rate risers and fallers for Week 2 based on RotoBaller's premium tool. Ben Rolfe identifies offensive players who have started the season either strongly or poorly and discusses whether it is time for any action.

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 2! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Thursday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

This week we will look at the first couple of weeks as a whole, as we are too early in the season to really look at changes in contact rate and make any meaningful conclusions about them. However, we can take a look at players who have started either strongly or badly and see how that differs from their 2018 numbers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Willians Astudillo (C, MIN)

90.2% contact rate this season (-1.5%)

I am cheating a little bit here because I am actually picking a player who has worse contact numbers than last season. However, there is a method behind this madness! Astudillo's 91.6% contact rate was across just 97 plate appearances last season and therefore needed some time this year to see if that was a believable number. So far it looks like it may have been very correct and that sets Astudillo up in a rare position for a catcher, as a player who can contribute positively to batting average. Now there is next to no chance he is going to continue hitting at a .421 pace, but this start, combined with the strong debut in 2018 suggests there is a realistic chance Astudillo could contribute a .300 batting average this season. If he is still available in your leagues he is absolutely a player you should go and pick up immediately.

Hunter Renfroe (OF, SD)

84.8% contact rate this season (+13.8%)

When you come into a season with a career K% over 25 then your contact rate becomes an important indicator of your potential success for fantasy owners. Renfroe is off to a great start with an impressive 84.8% contact rate in his 33 PA so far this season. That has been reflected in his line to start the season, as Renfroe has posted a .333 batting average hit four home runs already. His success against right-handed pitchers this season has been in stark contrast to last season, as he has a .381 batting average against them this season compared to .245 last season. He was someone that I was extremely optimistic about coming into the season, and this start has only made me feel more strongly that 2019 is going to be a true breakout year for Renfroe,

Rhys Hoskins (1B/OF, PHI)

85.5% contact rate this season (+5.7%)

All eyes were focused on how Hoskins would begin the 2019 season, after a tough 2018. The good news is that he has started it strongly, seeing his contact rate rise nearly six percent. That rise has helped contribute to a .324 batting average over his first 44 plate appearances. The only slight question mark I have is that the gains in contact rate have come on pitches outside of the strike zone. His zone contact rate has risen a couple of percentage points, but outside of the zone he is currently making contact 14% of the time more than he did last season. Hopefully, that is just an indication that he is picking better pitchers outside the zone to swing at, but whether that will remain sustainable over the coming weeks and months is yet to be seen.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Hanley Ramirez (1B, CLE)

52.9% contact rate this season (-28.6%)

Ramirez is not off to a convincing start in 2019. The veteran slugger has just a .208 batting average to open the season and a massive 36.7% strikeout rate. So far he is just about making contact with half the pitches he swings at, largely thanks to swinging over a third of pitches he sees which are outside of the strike zone. On those pitches, he is making contact just 37% of the time, which is over 20% worse than at any other time in his career. Bizarrely, he is also swinging at just 58.5% of pitches inside the zone, but even on those, he is making contact just 71% of the time, compared to a career average over 89%. There was a lot of intrigue over Ramirez getting another chance this year and so far it is proving to be a mistake for the Indians and fantasy owners.

Matt Kemp (OF, CIN)

55% contact rate this season (-17.6%)

There was a lot of hope that a change of location might be good for Kemp. However, so far Kemp is making contact on just over half the pitches he swings at. That is fuelled by problems making contact both on pitches inside and outside of the zone. The biggest issue for Kemp is that he appears to be falling back into the bad habits from 2016 and 2017 in terms of swinging at around 40% of pitches he sees which are outside the zone. Kemp has never been a big walker but this season he has yet to register a single walk, while striking out over 40% of the time. Whatever experiment fantasy owners were trying with Kemp, it may be time to move on.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM)

56.3% contact rate this season (-19.2%)

This one is extremely worrying because Nimmo was a breakout hitter last season, who we hoped would carry the good form on this season. However, Nimmo has been struggling to make contact this season, striking out a whopping 46.3% of the time and registering just a .152 batting average. Of the three players on this list, he is the one I am going to remain the most patient with. He is still young and for the time being, he is still the leadoff hitter in New York. However, he is struggling to make contact with pitches both inside and outside the zone compared to last season. Hopefully, he is just experiencing a slow start and will get back to being the 75% contact rate hitter he was last season. At this stage, this is nothing more than a caution, but it could quickly become something more if the Mets lose their patience with him atop the batting order.

 

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray.

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription and will launch on April 22nd for the 2019 season. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

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