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Biggest Risers and Fallers of 2016: Tight Ends

We're a few days out from the Super Bowl, which means it's not long until the NFL combine. From there it's a hop, skip, and a jump to the NFL draft, and before you know it, we'll be in fantasy football draft season. To make the best plans for 2017, it helps to understand what went down in 2016. Here then, for better or worse, are the biggest movers at the tight end position.

A quick note about methodology: I used 12-team PPR preseason ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator, and compared it to postseason positional finish. Rather than focus on the greatest raw change in rank, I focused on players that played the entire season, and were drafted outside of, but finished within the top tier of TEs.

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TE Risers

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

Preseason ADP Rank: N/A
PPR Positional Finish: 2

With a preseason ADP outside the top 14 rounds, Rudolph was an afterthought heading into 2016. In fact, you might have gotten him on waivers after the season started. Rudolph almost doubled the number of targets he received in 2015, and guess what? 2017 is shaping up much the same. Sam Bradford is slated to be the starter, with Teddy Bridgewater's future in question, and Bradford just peppered Rudolph with a career high in targets. Should Laquon Treadwell emerge in his second year, there's a chance Rudolph's targets take a hit. But that's not a given, and he could give up a chunk of targets and still be a fantasy TE1. Since you probably paid little-to-nothing to acquire Rudolph, he's a strong hold.

Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Preseason ADP Rank: N/A
PPR Positional Finish: 7

The Harvard product made former second-round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins expendable. To be fair, Seferian-Jenkins did a good job of seeing himself out of town. But Brate performed very well and should have the opportunity to be the starter in 2017. With seven double-digit PPR performances in 15 games, he certainly has upside. Of course, that means he didn't do much at all in the other eight games, so he's a bit of a volatile player. It's also worth noting that his eight TDs tied for the league lead among TEs, and there's a good chance that number comes down next year. Still, he's a good candidate for another TE1 season and despite last year's performance, probably won't cost much in terms of 2017 draft capital.

Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

Preseason ADP Rank: 15
PPR Positional Finish: 4

Talk about comebacks. I was not at all sanguine about Graham's outlook heading into 2016, but he turned in a sterling performance. Despite some rough patches from Russell WilsonGraham was one of just seven TEs to play in more than 12 games and average more than 12 PPR points per game. Now a year removed from a devastating knee injury, he's solidly back in the top tier of fantasy TEs, along with Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski, and Greg Olsen. We'll have to keep an eye on his ADP though. Given his pedigree and name value, he could wind up with a lofty valuation. TE is a relatively fungible position in fantasy, so I'd be disinclined to pay top dollar for him, even though he could very well offer a repeat performance.

Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens

Preseason ADP Rank: N/A
PPR Positional Finish: 8

Where did that come from? Out of the league since 2014, Pitta not only played in all 16 games, he finished third in targets among TES (121). Since Baltimore is relatively short of cap space, and Steve Smith has retired, there's a very good chance Pitta gets a similar workload next year. Like Rudolph and Brate, he cost next to nothing to acquire last year, and is definitely worth holding in dynasty leagues. He'll also probably make a good redraft target, as concerns about his age and injury history should keep his value down. Unlike Brate, Pitta scored just two TD last year, so if he earns a similar role, there's also a great chance that number goes up.

TE Fallers

Jared Cook, Green Bay Packers

Preseason ADP Rank: 14
PPR Positional Finish: 36

Cook is a player who has long tantalized us with his athleticism and potential, but in a bounce-back year for Aaron Rodgersdisappointed us yet again. Cook only played in 10 games, but even on a per-game basis he underwhelmed, finishing as TE 31 by that measure. In those 10 appearances, he managed just two games with double-digit points. Apparently Green Bay wants to re-sign Cook, and perhaps a season of full health will help. I wouldn't count on it though. He'll still have to compete with a cadre of capable wide receivers, and it's probable that Rodgers numbers will come down a bit from 2016, when he set a career high in yards and led the league in TD passes.

Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars

Preseason ADP Rank: 9
PPR Positional Finish: 32

The Jaguars entire offense suffered through the demise of Blake Bortles, but the concerns with Thomas go well beyond that. He's never played a full season, and is likely to be cut this offseason. Since coming to Jacksonville, he's averaging just 3.6 catches and 35 yards per game. He does still score TDs at a decent rate (0.4 per game over the past two seasons) but that's not enough to count on.

Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

Preseason ADP Rank: 1
PPR Positional Finish: 26

I put this off as long as I could, but you knew it was coming. Gronkowski was still very good on a per game basis, averaging 12.1 PPR points per game. Of course, that's the same as Jimmy Graham, and less than seven other TEs. It's not much more than Zach Miller (12), Cameron Brate (11.4), or Eric Ebron (11) managed. And none of those guys cost a second round pick. Ouch. If you drafted Gronk last year, you almost certainly suffered. It's fair to wonder how effective he'll be in 2017. Gronkowski has had nine surgeries since his final college season, including several on his back. Will he be dominant when he's healthy? Most likely. Will he stay healthy? That's debatable. Don't get me wrong, I love Gronk, but I think he's probably going to be a trap pick. If his ADP comes anywhere near where it was last year, the downside risk is too much to accept.


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

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Dylan Harper

Considered Questionable for Friday Night
De'Aaron Fox

Listed as Questionable for Game 3
Jalen Williams

Questionable for Game 3 Against Spurs
Alex Tuch

Hopes to Remain in Buffalo
Sidney Crosby

Wants to Play for "as Many Years as Possible"
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Could Miss Start of Next Season Due to Hip Surgery
Arber Xhekaj

Scratched for Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals
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Seeks More Success Against Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen

Looks to Stay Undefeated Thursday
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Not Taking Part in OTAs as Value Continues to Plummet
Carnell Tate

Receiving Early Buzz at OTAs
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Bigger Role Could be Coming for Ashton Jeanty in Year 2
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Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery
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' Goal is to be Ready for Start of the Season
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Dealing With Injury at OTAs?
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Says he Feels "Really Good"
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Door isn't Closed for Keenan Allen in Los Angeles
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Absent From OTA Practices This Week
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a Top Dynasty Target Even if He Doesn't Start Week 1?
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Dynasty Outlook Dependent on Landing Spot
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Should Managers Trade for Mack Hollins Amid Roster Questions?
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a Prime Dynasty Sell Candidate
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Insurance Upside Makes Him a Borderline TE1 in Dynasty
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One of the Most Valuable Assets in Dynasty
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Pots Another Goal in Game 1 Win Against Avalanche
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Extends Point Streak to Four Games
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Scores in Fourth Straight Outing
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Records Third Consecutive Win
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Capitals Re-Sign Timothy Liljegren to Two-Year Extension
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Jerry Stackhouse Emerges as Bulls Head-Coach Candidate
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Kon Knueppel Headline All-Rookie Team
De'Aaron Fox

is Ruled Out for Game 2 on Wednesday
Jiri Kulich

Aims to Return Next Season
Jeremy Lauzon

Not Expected to Play Wednesday
Mark Stone

Likely to Remain Out Wednesday
Scott Wedgewood

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Set to Return Wednesday
Artturi Lehkonen

Expected to Play Wednesday Night
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Difficult to Trust at TPC Craig Ranch
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Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
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Si Woo Kim

Looks To Stay Hot at CJ Cup
James Harden

Struggles in Eastern Conference Finals Opener
Evan Mobley

Bags Second Consecutive Double-Double
Donovan Mitchell

Produces Top Two-Way Performance in Game 1 Loss
OG Anunoby

Plays Key Role in Comeback Win
Mikal Bridges

Remains Efficient in Game 1 Against Cavaliers
Karl-Anthony Towns

Extends Double-Double Streak to Four Games
Scottie Scheffler

to Defend CJ Cup Byron Nelson Title This Week
Jordan Spieth

Looking For Victory at TPC Craig Ranch
PGA

Matti Schmid Looks to Keep Recent Momentum Going at TPC Craig Ranch
Brooks Koepka

a High-Upside Play at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
Chris Kirk

Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Joel Dahmen

is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
Pierceson Coody

is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
Gerrit Cole

to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
Drake Baldwin

Braves Place Drake Baldwin on Injured List With Oblique Strain
CFB

Ezavier Crowell has Immediate Opportunity at Alabama
CFB

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CFB

Kemario Taylor a Breakout Candidate at Quarterback
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Trinidad Chambliss the Undisputed Top SEC Quarterback Entering 2026?
CFB

Rocco Becht The "Unifier" of Penn State's Roster
Mattias Samuelsson

Picks Up an Assist in Season-Ending Loss
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Ronald Acuña Jr.

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Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Monday Against Twins
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Bounces Back
Daniel Santos

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
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Suffers His Second Loss In A Row
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Scores Second-Round Submission
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Gets Split-Decision Win
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Colt Emerson

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Munetaka Murakami

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Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Blake Snell

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Clay Holmes

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Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
Corey Seager

Absent With Back Spasms on Saturday
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Hits the Injured List With Groin Injury
Blake Snell

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Kyle Schwarber

on a Heater, Hits Two More Homers to Take Major-League Lead
RANKINGS
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1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF