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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Charlotte Roval on Sunday for the final race of the Round of 12. With his win last week, Chase Elliott locked his way into the Round of 8. Which seven drivers will join him there?
We know it won't be Alex Bowman, as will miss the race due to concussion symptoms. But his Hendrick teammate William Byron got good news this week, as a penalty was rescinded and Byron is now 14 points to the good on the cut line.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 10/9/22 at 2:23 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Chase Elliott
Starts 9th - DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $14,000
When we're talking about road courses in NASCAR, we've got to start by talking about Chase Elliott, who has run 24 road course races in the Cup Series with 17 top 10 finishes. His average finish on road courses is 7.7.
Looking specifically at this track, Elliott has made four visits to the Roval, and he's won twice. In 2019, he led 35 laps on his way to the victory. In 2020, he led 27 laps and won. His worst finish here is 12th. Elliott is my pick to win Sunday's race.
Tyler Reddick
Starts 4th - DraftKings $10,0500| FanDuel $13,500
Elliott is the best full-time road course racer in the Cup Series, but Tyler Reddick has made an argument that he's close.
Reddick has three wins this year, with two of them coming on road courses. He won his first career race at Road America, leading 16 laps, and then was even better at the Indianapolis roval, starting on the pole and leading 38 laps on his way to victory lane.
Will his good run at that roval foreshadow a good run at this roval?
Reddick finished second here last year, and he was also second in his last Xfinity Series start here in 2019.
Kyle Larson
Starts 18th - DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $13,000
Larson has some good upside here from a place differential perspective, as he's the second-lowest starting playoff driver.
This 5 car already has a win this season at a road course, as Larson won at Watkins Glen earlier this season. And he also has a win at the Charlotte roval, as he led eight laps on his way to victory lane last year.
In fact, Larson has led in all his Cup races here. The finishes haven't always been there—he led 47 laps in 2018 but finished 25th—but he knows how to get up to the front at this track.
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Erik Jones
Starts 26th - DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $6,500
Now we get to some of the deeper place differential options, starting with Erik Jones in the 43 car.
Jones has 12 top 10s this year. Of those 12, two were at road courses, as he was ninth at COTA and 10th at Watkins Glen. He was also 15th at Indianapolis.
Jones was an uneven track record here, with one top 10 in four starts, but that one top 10 was a third place finish in 2020. Jones isn't really known for his road course racing, but his average finish of 15.3 at them is better than his average finish at other broad track types, and he's had three top fives in 22 starts.
Aric Almirola
Starts 37th - DraftKings $6,400 | FanDuel $4,500
An engine issue meant that Almirola didn't get to run a qualifying lap, which means we have a Stewart Haas driver starting 37th. Almirola hasn't had the best season, but with an average finish this year of 17.8, you have to hammer this play because of the place differential upside.
Almirola has struggled at road courses this season, with a best finish of 14th at Sonoma. His average finish on road courses is just 21.4 in his career. He's the opposite of Erik Jones—he's actually sneakily bad at these tracks.
But Almirola has been better at the roval. His average finish here is 18.3. He's finished on the lead lap in all four of his starts, including three top 20s. There's always the risk that Almirola gets mired in traffic and can't improve much, but I think I'll take the bet on the speed of this 10 car.
Josh Williams
Starts 38th - DraftKings $4,600 | FanDuel $2,500
I love this as a punt play this weekend. This team isn't very good, but in the two races that Josh Williams has run in it, he's done enough to deliver for DFS purposes.
In the Bristol dirt race, Williams started 36th and finished 25th. At Indy, he started 37th and finished 25th. He finished on the lead lap both times. He has a good bit of road course experience and finished 11th last year in the Xfinity race at this track. Plus, playing Williams really opens things up for you in terms of lineup building. As always, this article represents a valid lineup on DraftKings, so you can see that I fit Williams in with three drivers who cost over $10,000.
You could also try to move things around to get Conor Daly in your lineup, as he starts 39th. There's more upside there since Daly is a better driver, but he's also never run a Cup Series race before, so there's some definite risk.
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