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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas on Sunday for the first race of the Round of 12. Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch, Austin Dillon and Kevin Harvick were all eliminated from the playoffs in the last round—interesting that all are past, present or future RCR drivers, hmm?
Now, we start the next three-race round, with Chase Elliott resuming the points lead thanks to his numerous playoff points. Chase Briscoe, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric are currently in the elimination spots, but they'll have three races to race their way out of them.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 9/25/22 at 3:47 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Christopher Bell
Starts 22nd - DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $12,500
Bell's car was off on Saturday, as he was 20th in practice and 22nd in qualifying. But his track record this year on intermediate tracks leads me to think that he'll get things sorted out heading into Sunday's race.
Every 1.5-mile track is slightly different, but if you look at how Bell has done this year on tracks of that length, you'll see a lot of good stuff. Taking out Atlanta since it now runs like a superspeedway, we see he was 10th at Vegas (pole + 32 laps led), fifth at Kansas (pole + 37 laps led), fifth at Charlotte, ninth at Gateway and then third at the most recent Kansas race (12 laps led).
Bell also had three top fives in the first round of the playoffs. He's on a hot streak right now and should be able to get through the field and contend in this one.
Kyle Busch
Starts 18th - DraftKings $10,000| FanDuel $12,000
The first playoff round was a disaster for Kyle Busch, with two DNFs and a best finish of 26th at Kansas. But unless you believe the conspiracy theories that JGR is trying to tank the end of his Gibbs career, I think we have to assume things will improve for Busch.
Busch has been solid on 1.5-mile tracks this year, including a fourth at Vegas (49 laps led), a third at the first Kansas race (18 laps led) and second at Charlotte (36 laps led). He was also second at Gateway, with is 1.6 miles around.
Kevin Harvick
Starts 23rd - DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $8,500
Harvick had a moment this season when it looked like he was turning things around, winning back-to-back at Michigan and Richmond. But two DNFs in the first round of the playoffs sent Harvick packing.
Still, he has a chance to end the season on a solid note, even if his championship hopes are dashed.
Harvick had 60 Cup Series wins. 36 of them come at tracks between one and two miles. That includes three wins over the years at Texas. The track is a little different than it used to be, but Harvick was fifth here last year after starting 24th.
Since joining Stewart Haas, Harvick has consistently been a threat when the series comes here. Don't be shocked if we see him battling for the win.
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Alex Bowman
Starts 17th - DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $8,000
It's been a weird season for Alex Bowman, as he just hasn't really found himself up front as much as expected. His average finish is 15.7, his lowest mark since 2018, his first full-time season for Hendrick Motorsports.
But intermediate tracks have been a highlight for him, as Bowman won at Vegas and was top 10 at Kansas both times and Charlotte. Starting 17th offers a decent amount of place differential upside for a driver who should manage to finish in the top 10 here.
Brad Keselowski
Starts 1st - DraftKings $6,800 | FanDuel $6,000
I think this is the most interesting play in Sunday's race.
Normally, if a driver who isn't usually up front wins the pole, I fade them. The possibility of losing place differential points is simply too great. But that's when we're talking about drivers priced in the Bubba Wallace/Austin Cindric/Aric Almirola tier of guys. Keselowski is in a little bit of a cheaper tier.
And because of that, I think there's some value here. We saw a different RFK car win last week—maybe the speed is back for this team? And Texas isn't a track known for being exciting, so if Keselowski can fire off good at the start, he could bank some DFS points through leading early laps.
Obviously, an issue on this car kills your lineup. But at this salary, I think the risk is worth it.
Ty Dillon
Starts 32nd - DraftKings $5,400 | FanDuel $3,500
With how much this new car has evened out the field, it's been surprising to see this 42 car struggle. Dillon's teammate Erik Jones has a win and has run up front other times, but the results haven't really been there for Dillon.
Still, Dillon has definitely been better than a lot of cars. His average finish this season is 21.8, so while he only has one top 10, he's still run ahead of a bunch of drivers this season. And with Dillon starting 32nd on Sunday, the place differential upside is too great to ignore. Don't expect some monster day where Dillon finishes in the top 1o, but he can net you 12-15 points through PD today.
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