X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Week 20 Pitcher Standouts

As the saying goes, you can’t win your league during the draft. The waiver wire moves owners make during the season are the ones that will determine who wins. The art to winning at fantasy baseball is being able to determine who should be added to a roster and should be bypassed. In order to do that, an owner needs to be able to tell if someone is for real or not.

This column will focus on some pitchers who have recently thrown their hats into the ring for consideration. Below are some pitchers who performed well in Week 20, as we look towards the waiver wire for Week 21 and beyond.

These pitchers are available in many leagues, and we’ll dig a little deeper to determine whether you should be picking these guys up or leaving them be.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Old Enough To Rent A Car

Jose Ureña, Miami Marlins

2016 Stats (major league): 83.2 IP, 6.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 58 K (6.24 K/9), 29 BB (3.12 BB/9)

August 16, 2017 vs. San Francisco Giants: 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 2 K (3.60 K/9), 1 BB (1.80 BB/9)

Jose Ureña has been a fringe prospect for years. Four years ago, he barely squeaked into lists of Miami’s top-ten prospects, and he made steady progress through their minor league system from season to season. However, he never really attracted any attention as a potential star. His mid-90s fastball was always rated as having good velocity, but it didn’t have the movement necessary to make it an out pitch. A strong changeup worked as a decent counterbalance, but his slider was also mediocre, so it wasn’t even clear if he’d have the arsenal necessary to make it as a starter. Once he got his chance in the bigs, he proved all that analysis right. Initially coming up at 23 years of age, he slogged through nine starts and 11 relief appearances on his way to a 5.25 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He logged a terrible 4.09 K/9 strikeout rate, and his walk rate rose to 3.65, the highest of his professional career, because major league hitters weren’t fooled by his stuff. 2016 brought a lot of the same as he split time between Triple-A and the majors, posting a 3.17 ERA in the minors and a 6.13 ERA in the majors. Now 25 years old, he entered 2017 with concerns that he may just be a Quad-A pitcher, someone who is good at Triple-A and bad at the major league level.

On August 16, Ureña faced off against the Giants. He was coming off a string of solid starts including two quality starts in his last three outings. Facing the weak San Francisco offense (3rd fewest runs scored in MLB) was just what the doctor ordered to help extend his streak of good starts. Ureña only went five innings, but they were free of runs. He did allow seven hits and one walk while only striking out two, but it’s hard to argue with a shutout performance, and he snagged his 11th win in the process. 11 wins is nothing to sneeze at!

The problem with Ureña’s 11 wins is that he’s still the same mediocre pitcher under the hood. He’s carrying a beautiful 3.61 ERA on the season, and that win total is no joke, but he’s depending on fortune more than fortitude to get there. The reasons for Ureña’s success are why wins have fallen out of favor in analyzing future performance amongst starting pitchers versus more analytical statistics such as FIP and xFIP.

First, he doesn’t go very deep into games. He’s only gone past the sixth inning once this season, and while that’s great for conserving his arm, it means he’s needed his bullpen and offense to carry him. That leads to the second reason. Regarding the offensive side, he’s tied for sixth in the league amongst starters in the amount of run support he receives per outing, averaging six runs in his favor per appearance. While that’s awesome, it’s also not sustainable. Once his run support goes back to a more normal level, his expected chance of getting a win each time out will take a hit. Third, his strand rate is at 77.8% this season and 85.6% since July 31 (his last four outings). That’s even more unsustainable, and don’t forget that his last four outings happen to be the nice streak he’s on recently.

 

Verdict

Not only is Jose Ureña not for real, it’s still not even clear that he should be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation starter at best. He still has a strikeout rate far below average (6.06/9), a walk rate that’s worse than average (3.10/9), his pitches aren’t drawing more swinging strikes (8.3%, worse than 2016), and he actually leads the MLB in hit-by-pitches. He’s simply lucked into a sky-high strand rate, better run support than almost anyone in the game, and a couple poor offenses recently. As stated before, FIP and xFIP are better predictors of the future than current win totals. Ureña's FIP is 4.91 and his xFIP is an even worse 5.39. Those aren't indicative of a bright future.

 

Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies

2016 Stats: 168.0 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 185 K (9.91 K/9), 59 BB (3.16 BB/9)

August 16, 2017 vs. Atlanta Braves: 6.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 K (9.00 K/9), 2 BB (3.33 BB/9)

Jon Gray has been groomed to be Colorado’s ace for years, and when a handicap is applied for the fact that he pitches half his games in Coors Field, he’s starting to live up to the hype. While huge expectations have been placed on Gray ever since he was drafted third overall in 2013, he’s always gotten showered with praise from scouts while his stats haven’t really been up to par. Whether it be when he was carrying a 4.33 ERA in Triple-A Albuquerque before his first call-up or when he was finishing his first full season in the majors with a 4.61 ERA, he’s always been more potential than performance. However, in 2017, considerably more substance has arrived.

Gray welcomed the Braves to the launching pad in Denver on August 16, and he handled them well. He scattered two runs and five hits over six innings, logging an easy quality start and giving his vaunted offense a chance to win the game. They did, and it brought his record up to 5-2 in his injury-shortened season (he missed time from mid-April to the end of June due to a broken foot). The performance was another in a string of good outings, and Gray looks like he’s fitting right into his position as the rotation’s ace.

 

Verdict

Jon Gray is definitely for real. The kid is a bona fide ace, but he’s still growing into the role. For example, his season stats of an ERA of 4.74 and a 1.48 WHIP don’t look like an ace on the surface, but delving into them a little shows great potential there. First, if you remove just his worst outing of the season, his ERA drops over a full run to 3.71. Second, his season-long performance shows that it isn’t just a fluke to refer to him as an ace.

In his 12 starts this season, Gray has allowed more than three runs in just three outings (25%), and he’s only allowed three earned runs in two other starts (58% of outings with less than three earned runs). For comparison, Chris Sale has allowed more than three runs in six of his 25 starts (24%) and less than three earned runs in 15 starts (60%). Zack Greinke is also at 24% and 60%. That’s not bad company to be hanging out with, especially when his Coors Field handicap is applied. Coors produces 1.32 runs when compared to a neutral park, most in the league. Second most is Chase Field in Arizona, Greinke’s home park, and it’s only at 1.17. Fenway, Sale’s stadium, plays neutrally in 2017 at exactly 1.00. Yet Gray is able to have comparable run control to the other aces. Not bad for someone who's still just 25 years old.

 

More Fantasy Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF