Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 6

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

We're looking at a trio of low-owned right-handers this week, as Dane Dunning, Zach Eflin, and Tyler Mahle all impressed over the weekend. Each is available in more than 80% of Yahoo leagues, so they are likely out there in most standard 12-team leagues.

Roster percentage is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 08/24/2020. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers who are either still widely available or were hot waiver wire pickups after good starts, and to analyze whether they're a flash-in-the-pan or if there's any staying power.

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Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies

16% Rostered

2020 Stats (prior to this start): 19.1 IP, 5.12 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 24.1% K-BB%

08/29 vs. ATL: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Eflin has cranked up his strikeout game this year, raising his strikeout rate 15% from a mediocre 18.3% in 2019 to an elite 33.3% in 2020. Going into play Sunday Eflin is among the top-10 best strikeout starters in baseball (min. 20 IP), matching names like Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, and Blake Snell. His 39.9% chase rate is the second-best in baseball behind only Shane Bieber. All of the pitchers covered in this column pitch surprisingly well, heck, it’s in the title, but it’s especially surprising coming from Zach Eflin. Eflin had made 74 career starts coming into the season, and we knew exactly who he was. A fringy, occasionally streamable right-handed with so-so stuff and low upside. The type of pitcher who is more valuable in real baseball than fantasy. A budding Mike Leake, if you will. But this type of strikeout rate can be ignored no longer, so let’s dive into the Phillies righty and see how Eff-lin good he actually is.

In the first few years of his career Eflin typified so-so stuff. He throws low-to-mid 90s heat (though he used to be able to touch 97), has a weak slider that typically generates a poor whiff rate, a changeup to try and get lefties out (emphasis on the try, as lefties have a .373 wOBA against Eflin all time), and a show-me curveball. Good enough to keep a big league job, but nothing for us fantasy nerds to get excited about. However, Eflin has made two big changes in 2020 that could have us eying him up on the waiver wire. First, he’s transitioned from primarily a four-seam fastball pitcher to a sinkerballer. And second, he’s revamped his curveball and upped the usage, giving him a second breaking ball to compliment the slider.

First, we’ll start with the change I’m less enthused about, which is the transition to be a sinkerball pitcher. Sinkerballer is almost a derogatory term in 2020, as that style of pitching has lost much of its viability in the Statcast era, but for Eflin the pitch has been a godsend in terms of limiting power. Eflin served up 28 long balls last season and has a career 1.52 HR/9, but he’s only allowed three home runs for a 1.03 HR/9 this year. With an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH and an average launch angle of three degrees, batters haven’t been able to clobber home runs like in seasons past. It’s worth noting that Eflin’s sinker did have similar Statcast metrics last season and batters managed a .471 SLG and ten homers off the pitch last season. Eflin has also surrendered nine doubles but zero home runs with the pitch thus far, so he may be on the fortunate side to have kept the ball in the yard. Batters have a .492 SLG against Eflin’s sinker all time versus a .490 SLG against his four-seamer. The change has undeniably worked to prevent home runs thus far, but whether it continues to work is questionable. The sinker isn’t the source of strikeouts for Eflin anyway, that would be his new and improved curveball.

Eflin’s curveball has always been an afterthought pitch for him. He threw it just 5.4% of the time in both 2018 and 2019, and last year batters feasted on Eflin’s curveball for a .308 AVG and .654 SLG. Eflin has more than  doubled the usage Things have been much better this season, as batters are hitting .133 with a .333 SLG against the pitch. The expected stats are even better for Eflin’s curveball, with a microscopic .079 xBA and a .094 xSLG. The swinging strike rate has risen to 17.8% this season, and the chase rate has skyrocketed from 30% last year to 47.8% this year. Batters seem to have a hard time recognizing the pitch this season. Below is a heatmap comparison of the swing rate on Eflin’s curveball this year (top) and prior to 2020 (bottom).

Eflin has stayed inside the zone more with his curveball this year, and batters aren’t swinging at it inside the zone. Instead, they are flailing away at the unhittable curveballs. While this is nice to see, this graph also puts in perspective just how small of a sample size we’re looking at here. All season long we have to add the sample size qualifier when talking about players, but this allows us to visualize it. Eflin has thrown just 45 curveballs all year, and just a few more swings or a few more pitches down long significantly changes things like chase rate, zone rate, and whiff rate, which are all crucial metrics to evaluate pitchers. So, while there’s a lot to like about Eflin’s curve, we are still far away from drawing definitive conclusions.

So when it’s all said and done, what exactly do we have here? Eflin is trending in the right direction, but this writer isn’t buying it yet. He used his curveball a ton in this start against the Braves, with his 22.9% curveball usage the highest of his career. If Eflin can continue to do that he’ll be worth rostering in mixed leagues, but I have to see more before I trust him. In a deeper league I would add him and keep him on my bench for the start against Washington. If that goes well and the curveball trend continues Elfin should have a two-start week against Boston and at Miami, which could be a great spot down the fantasy stretch.

Verdict: Eflin’s changed his pitch mix this year to feature his sinker and curveball more prominently. The curveball has been the primary source of his strikeouts, and it’s at least made Eflin worth monitoring in mixed leagues. He isn’t a must add in standard mixed, but not a bad dart to throw if you can hold him on the bench.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds

9% Rostered

2020 Stats (prior to this start): 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 18.1% K-BB%

08/28 vs. CHC: 6.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K

Mahle is something of a regular when it comes to surprising starts. The 25-year-old right-hander is known for putting up big starts and even extended hot stretches only for things to blow up in his face. This is my third year writing this column for RotoBaller, and this will be the third time I’ve covered a Tyler Mahle start. Admittedly, I’ve never been a fan of Mahle. He has been overly reliant on his fastball in the past, and lacks the put-away breaking ball to consistently generate strikeouts and prevent runs in the big leagues. That being said, I’m open-minded and more importantly I want for myself and every RotoBaller out there to win their league, so let’s dive into Tyler Mahle: 2020 Edition and see if he’s turned the corner or if it’s another flash in the pan.

As previously mentioned, Mahle has been overly reliant on his fastball throughout his major league career, but Mahle has been trying to change that. His fastball usage has gone down each of the last two seasons, and is at an all-time low this year with just a 52.1% usage rate for Mahle. In fact, Mahle used his fastball and slider almost equally in his start against the Cubs, throwing 46 fastballs and 44 sliders. The slider was the big strikeout pitch for him too, with 12 of his 19 whiffs coming on sliders. This effort brought Mahle’s swinging strike rate with the pitch up to a career-high 20%, along with a monster 45.5% chase rate for his slider. It’s worth noting that Mahle’s slider is sometimes called a cutter by certain pitch tracking systems, but it has the drop and movement of a slider. Here is an example from this most recent start.

That is clearly a slider, and pretty good one at that. Increased slider usage and movement could be exactly what Mahle needs to take the next step.

It’s excellent to see Mahle incorporate an effective slider into his pitch mix like this, but it should be said that Mahle is no slouch with the heater. Mahle’s fastball has above average velocity and spin, and batters have managed just a .161 BA and .170 xBA against the pitch this season. What’s better is the 35-degree average launch angle and 9.3% SwStr rate against the fastball. Batters are struggling to make contact, and when they do it’s typically a lazy flyball, as Mahle’s fastball has a 73.9% flyball rate. The launch angle revolution has taught us to love flyballs, but flyballs are still the least likely type of batted ball to become a hit. There can be some positives to being a flyball pitcher, such as a lower-than-average BABIP,  but we should still expect Mahle’s chronic home run issues to remain. Even so, Mahle is becoming a more complete pitcher and for the first time has this writer interested.

Verdict: Mahle has increased his slider usage, and combining that pitch with his effective fastball should give him a one-two punch for strikeouts. Home runs will be a problem, as will walks, but Mahle’s doing some interesting things. He’s worth an add in deeper leagues, and he is startable in his next matchup against St. Louis, a club with just a .715 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season.

Dane Dunning, Chicago White Sox

17% Rostered

2018 Stats (Double-A): 62 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 17.6% K-BB%

08/30 vs. KC: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Every week it feels like a new and exciting pitching prospect gets promoted to the big leagues and becomes the hot waiver wire commodity, but Dane Dunning has flown somewhat under the radar in his first two big leagues starts. He went toe-to-toe with Casey Mize in his debut and arguably out-pitched Mize, and thanks to a Gio Gonzalez injury Dunning got another chance on Sunday against the Royals and did not disappoint. The Royals couldn’t even muster a hit off Dunning over five innings, and went down on strikes seven times. Dunning may be best known as the “other” pitcher who went to Chicago from Washington in the Adam Eaton trade, and was always considered a notch below Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. He’s obviously no Lucas Giolito yet, and hopefully he’s no Reynaldo Lopez, but where in between does Dunning fall?

Part of the reason Dunning was never considered a super high-end pitching prospect was his poor fastball velocity. Dunning sat low-to-mid 90s prior to Tommy John surgery in 2019, but averaged just 91.1 MPH in his most recent start and topped out at 92.4 MPH. Batters have also smoked his fastball with an average exit velocity of 100.4 MPH against Dunning’s four-seamer. The pitch has a .226 xBA thanks to a 50% groundball rate, but it’s hard to trust a pitch that’s surrendering so much hard contact. This is still a very small sample size, especially for batted ball data, but something to keep an eye on regardless.

On the plus side, Dunning’s slider absolutely carved up the Royals lineup. He generated seven of his 14 whiffs with the pitch, which gives him a 30.9% whiff rate with his slider in two starts. The slider was absolutely dominant for Dunning in the minor leagues as well, which has helped him maintain a 10.2 K/9 over his minor league career. Here are a few examples from this start.

It’s especially nice to see Dunning unafraid of throwing his slider to a left-handed batter. Dunning has thrown his slider to lefties 23% of the time when ahead in the count and 18% of the time with two strikes. Most young pitchers do not have the confidence to throw a breaking ball to opposite handed batters and instead rely on a changeup, so it’s encouraging to see Dunning go after both righties and lefties with his best pitch.

Based on his first two starts and his minor league numbers, it seems like Dunning has big strikeout potential. He should also be an above average groundball pitcher, as he’s had a groundball rate of 49% or higher in every minor league season and has a 52.6% groundball rate through his first two starts thanks to his slider and a plus two-seamer. The four-seam fastball velocity is a bit concerning, and it would be nice to see Dunning do it against a lineup besides the Royals or Tigers, but there’s a lot to like here. And lucky for Dunning if things stay the same his next two outings would come against the Royals and Tigers. He’s worth adding in 12 teamers or deeper, and usable in the next matchup at Kansas City. Dunning’s rotation spot isn’t guaranteed, but if he continues to pitch well he could easily supplant one of Reynaldo Lopez, Gio Gonzalez, or Carlos Rodon, all of whom have been horrible thus far this year.

Verdict: A great slider and good groundball rate should help Dunning overcome poor fastball velocity. A soft AL Central schedule helps, as Dunning's next two starts would come against Detroit and Kansas City. He deserves to be on someone's team in 12-teamers or deeper.

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