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Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his World Wide Technology Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the World Wide Technology Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - World Wide Technology Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
El Camaleon Golf Course
7,100 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Paspalum
The best way to describe El Camaleon Golf Course would be as an exposed oceanside track that features jungle terrain and swampland. That is a unique mixture since you get three different textures with that description, but golfers will need to traverse various hazards, including those of the architectural variety.
There are very few locations on the PGA Tour where distance doesn't hold an advantage over precision, but nearly 65 percent of all top-10 finishers during the previous eights years have been shorter than average off the tee. It's not to say that distance is a negative, but accuracy players will undoubtedly see a boost. One of the reasons for that has to do with players clubbing down to avoid the plethora of hazards that come into play. The rough is virtually non-existent, but the misses do compound. A miss to one side might put you in the jungle. On the other, you might find yourself in water. And all of that needs to be maneuvered as you worry about the wind that comes into play off the coast.
While scoring might be easy for the winners, this track isn't a given! The point gets enhanced when we dive a little deeper into the actual metrics, as El Camaleon ranks near the top-10 on tour every season in birdie or better percentage and double bogey or worse rate. Mistakes will be made when balls get sprayed, and golfers can start to feel as if they are trapped in a tiny bubble once things begin to go wrong. The greens typically register between a 10-11 on the Stimpmeter, which is extremely slow, and we receive that set up so the surface doesn't get away from the grounds crew if winds do play a factor. Overall, golfers that can find fairways off the tee and pinpoint their irons from a shorter proximity range should be at an advantage, and the ability to play on a slow surface should only help matters.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | El Camaleon | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 67% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.39 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Justin Thomas leads the way at 12/1 and is followed by Viktor Hovland at 18/1, Tony Finau at 22/1 and Abraham Ancer and Tyrrell Hatton at 25/1
Key Stats
- Weighted Ball-Striking (Geared Way Towards Accuracy) - 25%
- Weighted Proximity (60% Between 0-150, The rest 150+) - 15%
- Weighted Scoring 10%
- Weighted Par-Four 15%
- Weighted Slow-To-Average Greens 12.5%
- SG: Total Under 7,200 Yards 10%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are seven players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Justin Thomas ($11,200) - When looking for safety, Justin Thomas was the number one golfer in my model, and we see that come to fruition with him ranking first in both strokes gained on a slower surface and weighted proximity. A lot is pointing in his direction when we remove the one negative trait he might be able to get around of inaccuracy off the tee because he can club down and hit irons, and I would be surprised if he didn't yield a top-25 here at Mayakoba.
- Most Upside: Abraham Ancer ($10,700) - I can't believe I am putting this into writing after consistently saying Abraham Ancer is one of the most overvalued golfers over the past few months, but this is the ideal venue for him to find success. Four straight top-21s at the property. Three top-14s, including a win during his last five starts in total. Inside the top two of all iterations of my model. Tournaments like this one where the top-three golfers in price are also the top-three on my board make it tough to avoid taking a chalky approach, but unlike most week's the intrigue around Ancer feels warranted.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($10,600) - More of a contrarian pivot. I do believe Ancer is the best play at the top of the board, but Tony Finau will provide leverage to builds.
- Fade: Brooks Koepka ($10,000) - I have reached the point where I am fine letting Brooks Koepka beat me when he does in non-majors.
- Most Likely Winner: Abraham Ancer ($10,700)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($9,900) - Scottie Scheffler could just as easily be $10,500. You don’t have to look any further than the American being -132 in a head-to-head battle against Brooks Koepka to show that he probably slipped into the wrong range. I don’t have any concerns with his past two showings at the Shriners or the CJ Cup, and the venue he gets this week should be good for his style.
- Most Upside: Scottie Scheffler ($9,900) - I won't find myself with a ton of exposure in the $9,000s.
- Favorite GPP Play: Shane Lowry ($9,300) - Shane Lowry or Patrick Reed are the two biggest leverage advantages in this range. Both are negative values when it comes to price versus rank, but there is an edge to be had if we can grab either for under five percent.
- Fade: Matthew Wolff ($9,200) - Too many negatives to pay over $9,000.
- Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Mito Periera ($8,100) - I don't typically play a ton of Mito Periera, but this is a good price for a golfer with a relatively high floor.
- Most Upside: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800) - Matthew Fitzpatrick is the third-ranked golfer in this field in moderate to severe wind and is just a week removed from being the top-priced player on the board at the Bermuda Championship. Fitzpatrick isn’t necessarily a value for me on the surface, but any course that mimics Harbour Town is going to be one I give him a second look. He is fourth in this field putting on slow greens. Seventeenth at courses under 7,200 yards and could be a good GIR week away from having a shot to compete.
- Favorite GPP Play: Cameron Tringale ($8,900) - I think Cameron Tringale is the natural GPP pivot off of Aaron Wise if you are trying to figure out a spot to get contrarian. Tringale's course form doesn’t give you an idea that his upside might be as high as Wise’s, but the American is a different golfer this season than he has been in his career. I don’t know if we ever end up getting the win on him that he deserves, but this is the type of setup where he should have his best shot at getting over the finish line.
- Fade: Rickie Fowler ($8,600) - Rickie Fowler is always higher-priced and more popular than I believe he should be for the week.
- Most Likely Winner: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Joel Dahmen ($7,000)
- Most Upside: Kevin Streelman ($7,200)
- Favorite GPP Play: Brian Harman ($7,300)
- Fade: Patrick Rodgers ($7,400)
- Most Likely Winner: Kevin Streelman ($7,200)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Tom Hoge $6,900, Ryan Palmer $6,900, Charles Howell III $6,900, Scott Piercy $6,900, Guido Migliozzi $6,900,Stephan Jaeger $6,800, Chris Kirk $6,700, Rory Sabbatini $6,700, Ryan Moore $6,700, Graeme McDowell $6,600
Fliers: James Hahn, Brian Stuard, Aaron Rai and Trey Mullinax
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