RADIO
Week 1 just wrapped up and it's always hard not to overreact to what we saw opening weekend, but nonetheless, decisions must be made. Playing the waiver wire is one of the most important aspects of fantasy football success. Teams go through so much roster turnover over a 17-game schedule and with the extra game this season, fantasy managers can expect even more roster shuffling.
Fantasy managers shouldn't be afraid to make adjustments to their rosters on a weekly basis. Each team ideally has 2–3 dependable bench players, but those last 3–4 bench spots are typically fluid from week to week. Think of these last few spots on your bench as scratch-offs. Move players around. Try to look for changing workloads and expanding roles. The more scratch-offs you get on your team, the better chances you have of hitting on one. You don't always need to find a league winner, although that's undoubtedly always the goal, even finding a WR2 can have value. It can allow you to work some 2-for-1 trades.
While we know we have to make moves, it can be difficult to figure out who we should be moving on from. That's even more difficult when we have only one game of data to look at. Some of those decisions are no doubt easier than others, however. For example, yes, it was a surprise and a disappointment Trey Sermon was a healthy scratch. That does not mean you should be dropping him by any means. Not with the news that Raheem Mostert will miss eight weeks or more. Likewise, Brandon Aiyuk disappointed mightily in Week 1, but he's most certainly a hold. Dropping the right player is just as important as adding the right one. The following players can be dropped in a traditional 12-team, half-PPR league with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE.
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Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
67.1% rostered
Baker Mayfield is a really good quarterback, but being a really good quarterback and being a good fantasy football quarterback are two different things. The Browns just played in a 33–29 shootout and he still only threw the ball 28 times. Their offensive line is too good, their running backs are too good and their defense is too good. It will lead to a lot of NFL success on Sundays, but he has very little upside. The former Heisman winner rushed for only 165 yards in 2020, offering very little value with his legs. While his weaponry in Odell Beckham (if he's healthy), Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and David Njoku are far from terrible, it still leaves something to be desired.
The Browns are likely to find themselves in a lot of positive game scripts the majority of the season, which is not ideal when it comes to fantasy scoring for quarterbacks. For him to reach his ceiling, he needs a high number of touchdowns, but with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running the football, it seems like a bet fantasy managers will be disappointed making.
Running Backs
Michael Carter, New York Jets
67.1% rostered
The Jets utilized a three-man backfield between Carter, Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman and none of them were effective. Fantasy managers really don't need to roster any of these three until one of them gives us a reason to. Coleman received nine carries and turned them into 24 yards. Johnson had four carries for 15 yards and Carter had four carries for six yards. Johnson and Carter each caught one ball going for 11 and 14 yards respectively.
A lot of fantasy managers were expecting Carter to be a viable commodity in PPR-settings, but that couldn't have been further from the case. Carter was in on only 10 of Zach Wilson's 37 dropbacks. That kind of usage offers no upside. Until Carter starts seeing more playing time and more touches, fantasy managers can safely move on from this experiment already.
J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team
49.8% rostered
McKissic racked up over 100 targets last year with a plethora of quarterbacks who either couldn't throw deep, couldn't run, or couldn't throw deep and couldn't run. That kind of involvement in the passing game gave McKissic a comfortable weekly floor, one fantasy managers were hoping would repeat itself. That wasn't the case in Week 1. There was a switch in how Antonio Gibson and McKissic were used. Gibson ended up running 13 routes compared to McKissic's nine. Washington only passed the ball 21 times, but if Gibson is going to be used as the primary receiving option out of the backfield, almost all of McKissic's value goes away.
Taylor Heinicke has shown the ability to keep plays alive and the speed to take off and run with it on his own. Historically, running quarterbacks do not tend to dump off to their running backs at a high rate because they're able to take off with it just as fast. It's why we typically don't see a lot of targets to the running backs in Buffalo and Baltimore. Gibson already ran more routes in Week 1, which directly led to more targets, receptions and receiving yards. In fact, McKissic didn't receive a single target.
Le'Veon Bell, Baltimore Ravens
43.3% rostered
With the injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, a lot of fantasy managers flocked to Le'Veon Bell the minute he was signed. The problem is Bell just isn't very good anymore. In the past two seasons, the former New York Jet has managed just 3.4 yards per carry. He just barely broke the 4 yards per carry in one of the most fantasy-friendly environments in the NFL with the Chiefs. Bell's best asset at this stage of his career is his pass-catching, but the problem with that is Baltimore does not throw to their backs. If the Ravens didn't adjust their game plan when they had Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins to throw to their running back, fantasy managers shouldn't expect it to happen now with Le'Veon Bell.
With other backs such as Latavius Murray and Ty'Son Williams, who has of this writing has eight carries for 63 yards and a touchdown, it seems unlikely Bell is going to get enough work week to week to even be a potential flex option. There are undoubtedly guys with more upside on the waiver wire than an old running back who is passed his prime.
Wide Receivers
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
60.2% rostered
The only fantasy-viable thing Mecole Hardman has ever done is being drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs. Seriously, that is it. You know who Mecole Hardman is? He's a worse, less predictable version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and no one wants to roster him. For the record, I'd rather have MVS on my bench over Hardman and it's not even close. In Week 1, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill combined for 22 targets of Mahomes' 33 attempts. Over 66% of his passes went to two players and there's no logical reason to expect that to change because Hill and Kelce are just simply too good.
Hardman only received three targets. He'll have his big weeks where he catches a random bomb for a score, but predicting it will be impossible. Grab someone else with a more viable path to predictable usage, it just doesn't exist for Hardman.
Tyrell Williams, Detroit Lions
37.3% rostered
This one should be an easy one. Williams is currently in the concussion protocol, which can sometimes only be a one-week absence or not at all, but it doesn't matter. Fantasy managers shouldn't feel the need to hang onto Williams through his possible injury absence. 31 of Goff's 55 attempts went to running backs and tight ends and the Detroit offense appears to have a distinct plan of operation and it's not using the wide receivers.
In Williams' career, he's been at his best when used as a deep-ball target, but the problem with that is Jared Goff struggles to throw the ball downfield in a big way. The offense is going to run through D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, which won't leave enough volume for Williams to be a viable option.
Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
36.9% rostered
The love affair for Parris Campbell is on par with that of Mecole Hardman, but it's time to move on. He was an extremely talented player when he came out of Ohio State, but multiple injuries have sapped the potential the former Buckeye once held. T.Y. Hilton's early stint on IR seemed to give Campbell a shot at life. That didn't last very long.
In Week 1, he was clearly the fifth option in the passing game behind Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Pittman and Pascal both played more snaps, ran more routes and received more targets. This offense is going to lean heavily on the running game, which simply won't leave Campbell with another volume to be a viable fantasy option.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
29.9% rostered
The Packers' offense was a disaster and fantasy managers shouldn't read too much into that. One thing that fantasy managers can do after Week 1, however, dropping Randall Cobb. He only received one target. That one target was thrown by Jordan Love. He was only on the field for 13 of the Packers' passing plays. That kind of usage isn't going to ever get it done. Many thought he would immediately become the starting slot receiver, but that wasn't the case. In fact, MVS ran 15 routes out of the slot to Cobb's nine.
With how much volume Davante Adams commands, Cobb needed to become the No. 3 target in Rodgers' pecking order to become fantasy viable or at the very least, someone worth hanging onto and Cobb seems to be running behind Adams, MVS, Tonyan and likely Aaron Jones on the target hierarchy.
Tight Ends
Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
58.1% rostered
Everything started out great for Austin Hooper and his fantasy managers. He received three targets, caught them all and racked up 27 yards on the opening drive. With Beckham inactive, it looked like he was in store for a big game. In the end, those were the only three targets he would receive. Throughout the offseason, there was talk about Hooper's role expanding, but that certainly didn't come to fruition in Week 1. To make matters worse, David Njoku, Hooper's backup received five targets and ended up leading the team in receiving yards with 76. Njoku was on the field during more pass plays and ran more routes.
On top of Njoku receiving more opportunities, Njoku also did more with his opportunities. Beckham will likely be back sooner than later adding more target competition to an already low-volume passing offense. Fantasy managers might have been hopeful with the offseason chatter of Hooper's role being more fantasy-friendly, but there was nothing in their first game of the season that should give anyone any hope moving forward. The Browns were in a good game script for the passing attack and yet, Hooper still disappointed. This team is going to win games on the back of its defense and the legs of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Hooper is nothing more than a touchdown-dependant TE2.
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers
30.3% rostered
There was some hope Ebron could hold off Pat Freiermuth in his rookie season to at least give fantasy managers one last useful season. After all, Ebron had 91 targets last season, a very healthy total for any tight end. On the flip side of that, even with 91 targets, Ebron still only managed to finish as the TE15. In Week 1, Freiermuth already out-snapped Ebron, 29–27. Ebron received one more target (2 to 1), but still was out-produced as Freiermuth had 24 receiving yards to Ebron's 19. Ebron was still used modestly more in the passing with 17 routes compared to Freiermuth's 12. Unfortunately, considering the career arcs of each player, fantasy managers should expect Freiermuth's role to only expand as the season rolls along, which will only cap Ebron's already limited upside.
On The Hot Seat
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
84.4% rostered
This might just be the biggest surprise, but his Week 1 usage was so alarming if fantasy managers need to cut bait, it's justified. Gesicki has largely made his fantasy mark due to sheer volume. The Dolphins have not had a lot of weapons in the passing game and so he was always a solid bet to get 5–7 targets a week and at the tight end position, that was enough. That all changed this offseason when the Dolphins drafted Jaylen Waddle and signed Will Fuller in free agency. They also still roster DeVante Parker.
If all of that wasn't bad enough, then Week 1 happened. Durham Smythe played 38 snaps to Gesicki's 21. He only ran 17 routes with Smythe running 15. That's the sound of a tight end by committee and Will Fuller didn't even play Week 1. Based on how he was used in Week 1, it's possible, maybe even likely, it will only get worse. Waddle and Parker were both more effective than Gesicki and now Will Fuller will be added into the mix in what is already a low-volume passing attack. Gesicki did receive three targets, but wasn't able to reel in any of them. This might have been one of the biggest surprises of the opening weekend, but fantasy managers need to adapt to what the stats tell us.
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