Waiver Wire FAB Bidding: Pre-Week 1 Targets

September 9, 2021

Nick's pre-Week 1 waiver wire FAB bidding recommendations for the 2021 NFL season. For fantasy football leagues using FAB (free agent budget), formerly FAAB.

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). We understand that limbo between your draft and Week 1 can mean less aggression on the waiver wire as folks hold onto their drafted players, but let's go exploring.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

The start of the season (usually) means every team is sitting with the same budget and the poker game is afoot. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2021 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Regardless of your philosophy, I'm here to present ample options and my own median FAB bidding recommendations heading into Week 1 for you.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

32% rostered

Until the rumors regarding Deshaun Watson turn into an actual trade, I am scooping up all of the Tagovailoa that I can. Brian Flores has thrown his support behind Tua and I am all about his Year Two campaign just one year removed from his being the No. 2 overall pick. More importantly, he’s another year removed from his major injury and looks more confident with his movement and mechanics this preseason.

“We’re starting to see what Tua is great at, and that’s playing a very similar style football to Drew Brees. I expect Tua to have a very good year. …I think he’s the best RPO quarterback in football.”

- Dan Orlovsky
(Via The Miami Herald) pic.twitter.com/hY9AWlnAgj

— Dolphin Nation (@Dolphin_Nation) September 2, 2021

He’s had an offseason to ramp up as the starter and gets a deep WR corps thanks to DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, and Will Fuller V. Mike Gesicki is a solid top-10 TE talent to round out a fearsome foursome to be deployed. Tua completed 24-of-34 pass attempts for 273 yards and a score to mostly backups this preseason and is ready to show the world why he caused some doubt around Joe Burrow being the No. 1 overall pick in 2020.

Jameis Winston (QB, NO) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

40% rostered

Winston’s rostered rate suffers as a result of an unclear starting role for much of the offseason. Couple that with his turnover-happy ways from Tampa Bay (plus a lackluster New Orleans corps) and most people are in wait-and-see mode. But the majority of Winston’s mistakes for the Bucs came in tilted late-game scenarios where he had no choice but to go for broke.

And pointing at Marquez Callaway as the No. 1 WR while Michael Thomas recovers on the PUP list is fair, but Alvin Kamara is the true No. 1 receiver for the Saints. The best pass-catching back Winston had prior to this might’ve been Charles Sims, so pump the brakes. 

Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

18% rostered

The Jets may provide sneaky value in 2021 as the stench of Adam Gase continues to ward off drafters. Robert Saleh is here and the bad man is gone. Corey Davis is quietly a steady No. 1 option out wide while Elijah Moore rounds into NFL form and Jamison Crowder provides sure hands from the slot.

Wilson had a 67.6% completion rate in three years at BYU, with his junior year yielding a spectacular 73.5% clip alongside 3,692 yards and a 33:3 TD-to-INT ratio in 12 games. Encouraging passing stats, but what doesn’t get talked up is his averaging 70 rushes per game across his collegiate career.

He’s not a dynamic threat (3.0 YPC) and only hit 254 yards in his junior year, but he tallied a whopping 10 rush TD in that season. He’s not afraid to tuck it himself and go. With an unassuming RB trio of Michael Carter, Tevin Coleman, and Ty Johnson, he just might call his own number more often than we’d expect.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Ty'Son Williams (RB, BAL) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

25% rostered

Williams enters the regular season as Baltimore’s No. 2 RB behind the newly-elevated Gus Edwards as the Ravens scramble to recalibrate the offense sans J.K. Dobbins. Edwards is deserving of his fifth-round draft slot given the rushing ability of this team, but it seems more likely that Baltimore forms a Hydra-like committee rather than suddenly giving Edwards the lion’s share. Enter: Williams, who spent his rookie season on the practice squad but has impressed John Harbaugh and earned this improved role.

…. This is just an outstanding three play stretch from Ty’Son Williams.

Even on the second play, yes, there’s a huge hole, but he still sets up the WILL with a little inside move to bounce outside.

Vision, patience, IQ…

Then levels the OLB in pass pro to give Huntley time. pic.twitter.com/Upz2eeIecm

— Spencer N. Schultz (@ravens4dummies) August 30, 2021

Justice Hill will also rotate in but has dealt with an ankle injury. It was that injury that let Williams show off his talent, which included a 62-yard game against the Panthers with a nice 20-yard touchdown run folded in. Target opportunity on high-scoring offenses, as good things typically follow.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) - FAB Bid: 4-6%

8% rostered

Gainwell comes roaring out of Memphis into an opportunity to make noise behind Miles Sanders. Folks may default to calling Boston Scott the backup here but it’s more complicated than that. Gainwell may indeed be behind Sanders, Scott, and Jalen Hurts for carries, but his receiving chops could be what gets him on the field often in 2021. This is compounded by reports that Sanders has struggled in the passing game during camp.

In 2019, Gainwell delivered a pristine 1,459-yard rushing campaign with 13 TDs, but the intrigue on top came from 51 receptions for 610 yards and three more scores. This should be valuable for Philadelphia, which struggled to supply receiving threats in 2020. They addressed this by drafting DeVonta Smith but still need Jalen Reagor to make a jump. That’s a lot of uncertainty in developing players, so we may see lots of Gainwell in passing situations.

Carlos Hyde (RB, JAX) - 15% rostered - FAB Bid: 2-3%: I know, it isn’t inspiring and you won’t feel great but Urban Meyer won’t commit to James Robinson as a standalone No. 1 and Hyde will serve as an early-season hammer. Losing Travis Etienne created open space for Hyde to move into, while Laviska Shenault Jr. benefits most from the vacated passing targets.

Tony Jones Jr. (RB, NO) - 6% rostered - FAB Bid: 1-2%: Strong preseason led to leapfrogging of Latavius Murray for the No. 2 role in the Superdome.

Damien Williams (RB, CHI) - 5% rostered - FAB Bid: 1-2%: Tarik Cohen is still hurt, meaning the former Super Bowl MVP could be an early contributor for deep-leaguers.

Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC) - 4% rostered - FAB Bid: 1-2%: The Chiefs let Darwin Thompson go, which indicates faith in McKinnon’s readiness. Again, targeting opportunity in high-scoring offenses is a premium strategy.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Elijah Moore (WR, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

38% rostered

Moore missed about two weeks of preseason action and so Twitter hype trains have slowed. There’s plenty to be excited about for Moore, whose 86 receptions in 2020 at Ole Miss trailed only DeVonta Smith’s total on the Division I leaderboard. If there’s an iota of intrigue for Zach Wilson after the earlier blurb, then you need to look into Moore.

Elijah Moore getting banged up in training camp was honestly a best-case scenario in fantasy football land. That man is far too affordable. One splash play in the preseason would've righted that wrong, but here we are! Sheesh.

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 1, 2021

Corey Davis is in a great spot as the No. 1 but Moore likely possesses the most raw talent at receiver for the Jets. Can he become polished enough at the NFL level in his rookie season to make a big leap? Well, for a few waiver dollars, I think it’s worth seeing how involved he is from the jump.

Bryan Edwards (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

12% rostered

Perhaps Edwards will get more respect after John Brown, who was working at the No. 4 at best this offseason, was let go. This may force some gears to turn as people wonder who is starting next to Henry Ruggs III. Edwards stands at 6’3” with speed and a sweet catch radius that gives him red-zone appeal as the X receiver. 

Many beats are expecting Edwards to lead the WRs in targets and receiving yards, even if Ruggs makes more lengthy highlight plays. Darren Waller is still the alpha here but Edwards could be a fantastic No. 2 receiving option for a Raiders team whose defense will put them into negative gamescripts.

Parris Campbell (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

10% rostered

Campbell’s sophomore and rookie seasons have ended early due to injury, but his losses make for a very soft market. He paced Indy wideouts with six catches for 71 yards (with two carries for 16 more yards) in Week 1, all looked promising. But then Campbell opened up Week 2 with an end-around and injured his MCL and PCL.

With TY Hilton on IR, Parris Campbell has a path to re-establishing himself a focal point out of the slot.

Campbell had 1 carry and 9 targets while playing 83% of the snaps in Week 1 last season. He went out for the season on the 2nd snap of Week 2.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 1, 2021

Michael Pittman Jr. is worth his own mid-round pick but T.Y. Hilton’s IR placement solidifies Campbell’s potential. Neither Jack Doyle nor Mo Alie-Cox are big threats at TE (well, size-wise they are) and Jonathan Taylor can’t do it all himself. Carson Wentz will try to electrify this passing attack and having a go with Campbell’s game-breaking speed is a worthy avenue.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

46% rostered

Meyers was a bright spot for an otherwise lackluster 2020 Patriots offense that didn’t crack 3,000 passing yards and only totaled 12 passing TDs. Cam Newton did his best but the arm strength and poise weren’t there. Despite barely playing before Week 7, Meyers would lead the team in targets with 81 by the season’s end. 

The 24-year-old showed strong hands with a 72.8% catch rate and wound up with a respectable 729 yards, but zero touchdowns. That last fact has kept him off many fantasy radars going into 2021, but now people seem to be getting up to speed. Much of that has to do with renewed hope in New England’s aerial attack following the release of Newton and the starting anointment for Mac Jones. 

There will be bumps and bruises along the way, but Meyers looks the better, more complete WR compared to Nelson Agholor. His biggest competition will come from the pair of TEs in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, though they shouldn’t push Meyers off of the field. If someone is a realistic bet to lead their team in targets, they should not be on the waiver wire. This leads to...

Tyrell Williams (WR, DET) - FAB Bid: 5-8%

20% rostered

Williams is forgotten by many after missing the entire 2020 season due to a torn labrum in his right shoulder. As a role player, Williams surpassed 650 yards in his previous four seasons. So that’s what most of us have internalized and associated with Tyrell. But Williams had an astounding 2016 after Keenan Allen got hurt, delivering 1,059 yards and seven TDs on 69 catches (119 targets). 

The Chargers only won five games that year, something the Lions might consider a lucky campaign. We don’t care if the stats come in the second quarter of a 21-14 slugfest or a 31-10 laugher -- points are points. Breshad Perriman got cut and Quintez Cephus had an injury at camp, so Williams and Goff had plenty of chances to get on the same page for an uphill 2021.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - FAB Bid: 5-8%

11% rostered

Valdes-Scantling appears to have taken a mental step forward heading into 2021, which may yield generous profits thanks to the existing physical skill set. Even with several key drops, he still averaged a whopping 20.9 yards per reception. He and Aaron Rodgers have shown a rekindled chemistry, backed by Rodgers’ feeding MVS’ love of reading with a treasure trove of hand-picked books. Training camp has seen no sign of the heartbreaking drops from seasons past, generating positive soundbites from Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur alike.

Aaron Rodgers on #Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling:

– "He's in a way different headspace. He is so settled mentally. Very clear, very present."

– "He's become a true professional."

– "He's a leader now in the (WR) room, very comfortable in the scheme."

— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) August 26, 2021

Coachspeak is great and all, but you can throw a rock and hit some for practically anyone in August. But he’s garnering the most buzz going into 2021 on a team with no clear No. 2 WR and a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback at the helm. We know he can deliver on the big play, but if he does so while consistently holding the ball and converting on key downs then he’ll play more, earn more targets, and could pop for 1,000-plus yards.

Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR, CAR) - FAB Bid: 4-6%

17% rostered

Marshall has demanded headlines across three preseason games, turning his 12 targets into nine catches for 181 yards and a touchdown. One can’t bank on 60-yard TDs just like that but he has upside to offer right next to Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. But therein lies the problem.

Those two guys are pretty darn good and will play ahead of Marshall’s slot work, all while a healthy Christian McCaffrey soaks up short targets and immense volume. What is left for Marshall, even if we assume Sam Darnold takes a massive step forward away from Adam Gase’s shadow? It’s worth seeing if this is a Victor Cruz-like arrival, but do remain realistic.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) - FAB Bid: 4-6%

9% rostered

St. Brown has a chance to plant his flag as Detroit’s No. 1 receiver right out of the gate. I know Detroit’s offense is weak but PPR rewards volume. Jared Goff needs a Cooper Kupp-like safety blanket and the Lions have had St. Brown line up both in the slot and out wide. St. Brown had a three-year collegiate career at USC that resulted in 178 catches for 2,270 yards and 16 touchdowns. If you don’t believe in Tyrell Williams asserting himself then look for ARSB to be the No. 2 or 3 behind T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift when Goff drops back.

Other options at no cost that may draw a heavy snap share with a mere 2% rostered rate are…

• Nico Collins (WR, HOU) - Little competition behind Cooks, horrid D means lots of passing.
• Quez Watkins (WR, PHI) - Watkins could pop as Travis Fulgham did in 2020.
• KJ Hamler (WR, DEN) - Sneaky contributor with Teddy B’s accurate arm?
• Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE)  - Impressing with more consistency, No. 3 role open.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

30% rostered

Unless you think the Bears truly roll with Andy Dalton for at least half of the season, then Kmet is a great second-year TE target for those who punted the position on draft day. I know his quiet rookie year anchors most of your perception, but he played behind Jimmy Graham in Chicago’s first nine games. The script flipped in Week 10 and Kmet outworked Graham at a nearly 2-to-1 clip. You don’t need to overcomplicate things at TE but do consider untapped upside in developing youth versus more known outcome ranges for veterans.

Jared Cook (TE, LAC) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

27% rostered

However, if you do want a steadier outcome range then at least grab someone like Cook thanks to his role at the Justin Herbert show. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler make for a mighty trio, but Cook offers a big body by the red zone and Hunter Henry averaged the 11th-best half-PPR PPG (8.2) in ‘20. This is a cheap way to buy into Herbert’s own growth. If you’d rather go for the younger home-run pick in Donald Parham Jr. then he is merely 1% rostered and offers a Pat Freiermuth-like upside in a pass-happy offense.

Blake Jarwin (TE, DAL) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

17% rostered

Jarwin had momentum going into 2020, having just caught 31-of-41 turrets for 365 yards and three touchdowns. But he would suffer a torn ACL early in ‘20 and then the rest of the Cowboys sputtered out when Dak Prescott’s season ended. Dalton Schultz performed admirably but Jarwin’s ceiling remains higher in my eyes, but those who believe in Schultz can get him for free at 1% rostered.

Juwan Johnson (WR/TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

8% rostered

Oh, that sweet WR/TE dual-eligibility harkens back to the days of Jimmy Graham donning a Saints uniform. Adam Trautman’s preseason injury may not be serious, but it cracks the door open that much wider for Johnson to establish himself as the receiving TE. We already saw reports of Trautman staying in the role he played behind Cook as the receiving TE in 2020, which Johnson can step right into. The Saints having question marks at wideout sans Michael Thomas mean Johnson could easily be a top-three option for Jameis Winston, who loves targeting TEs.

Since 2015, Winston has 32 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions when targeting tight ends in the red zone.

*formerly an Adam Trautman tweet, but now a Juwan Johnson tweet*https://t.co/yOsWlbgUkP

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 27, 2021

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

New Orleans Saints Defense (vs. GB) - FAB Bid (for all Defenses): 0-1%

33% rostered

I know you can all see a schedule and know whether Week 1 is good or bad for a team. You’re not blowing more than a dollar on any of these. This isn’t about their Week 1 matchup against the Packers because I’m not a lunatic. However, the Saints get to face Sam Darnold, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Weeks 2-5. Those are some turnover-happy environments for someone looking to set-and-forget for a month.

Chicago Bears Defense (@ LAR) - 25% rostered - Likewise, the Bears have a poor Week 1 matchup against the Rams but then have home matchups against Cincinnati and Detroit in Weeks 2 and 4.

Green Bay Packers Defense (@ NO) - 18% rostered - The Packers have a home game against the Lions in Week 2. That’s all you need to know.

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