2021 NBA Draft Winners and Losers - Instant Analysis

July 30, 2021

Justin Carter looks at the winners and losers during the 2021 NBA Draft and at whether the players drafted will have an immediate impact on the league, as well as how current players will be impacted by the selections.

Last night, the annual NBA Draft happened. It was wild, and it included a Russell Westbrook trade that I'll be writing about soon in a different article, because there were just too many moving parts there.

The first three picks of this draft went as expected, but then things went off the rails after that, starting with the Raptors not taking Jalen Suggs with the No. 3 pick.

So, let's take a look at the various winners and losers after this season's draft. This is mostly focused on fantasy basketball, but there might be a few takeaways that look at the broader picture.

2021 NBA Draft Winners

Cade Cunningham (G, Detroit Pistons)

No surprise here, as the Pistons did what we all expected and took Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham with the No. 1 overall pick.

A potential generational player, Cunningham is able to do essentially everything on the basketball court. Last season for the Cowboys, Cunningham averaged 20.1 points per game on 43.8 percent shooting while making 40.0 percent of his threes. He also added 6.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. At 6-foot-8, Cunningham is a huge mismatch when serving as the primary ball-handler and can create shots for himself and others.

Turnovers could be a concern, but Cunningham should be a strong fantasy contributor right out of the gate, with the potential to be a perennial first-round fantasy pick within the next couple of years.

Jalen Green (G, Houston Rockets)

Eric Gordon is likely getting traded, so Green should see immediate minutes at the two/three. He gives the team an explosive perimeter threat who averaged 18.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game last year on 46.9 percent shooting.

Green's a good finisher inside but needs to show he can improve as a shooter, as he shot 35.7 percent from three last season and needs to work on consistency. There are questions about his defense and decision-making, but Green gives Houston a great scoring threat.

And because he played against G League competition last year, Green might be farther along than other rookies and should see plenty of minutes from day one. He'll be an intriguing upside fantasy pick whose ADP will likely settle in the middle rounds.

Scottie Barnes (F, Toronto Raptors)

I don't love this pick for the Raptors, but I like this landing spot for Barnes, at least from a long-term view. Nick Nurse is a good coach. The Raptors have some good pieces. Barnes is a versatile player who can fit into whatever future version of this franchise looks like. But, uhh...more on this pick later.

The Orlando Magic

Wow. Orlando got a potentially elite guard who some analysts had ranked as high as second on their draft board with the fifth pick by taking Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs.

Last season, Suggs averaged 14.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. The 6-foot-4 guard is an explosive player who can be an NBA lead guard and will make smart decisions with the ball in his hands. He might have some turnover issues early on and he's a bit of a streaky shooter, but the upside is clearly here.

Then, Orlando got Franz Wagner at eight, who averaged 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game last year. His defense will really help this franchise, though he needs to work on his shooting. On a rebuilding team, he'll have time to do that.

Chris Duarte (G, Indiana Pacers)

Yes, he's on the older side, but I'm really excited to see a guy who shot 42.4 percent from three last year and made the Pac-12 All-Defensive team play on this Pacers team, which has Rick Carlisle coaching and could use a good 3-and-D bench wing. Could have some sneaky fantasy value.

Alperen Sengun (C, Houston Rockets)

One of the most intriguing players in this draft, Houston traded up to No. 16 to take Sengun, a 19-year-old big who averaged 19.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.3 steals on 63.2 percent shooting last year in Turkey.

Sengun is a versatile player who crashes the offensive glass, runs in transition, and can make plays with the ball in his hands. He's going to be a mismatch at the five, though he needs to work on defense and shooting.

Now, he probably won't be contributing a ton immediately, but I love this landing spot when it comes to dynasty. Houston is just entering a rebuild. Christian Wood is really the only big on this roster who has a long-term future in Houston. Sengun will have plenty of chances to show that he can be a star for the Rockets.

(Update: After writing the above paragraph, the Rockets drafted Usman Garuba, so now they have another long-term big on the roster. I don't think Garuba impacts Sengun too much though, as ideally they can share the floor.)

Sam Presti's Obsession With Hoarding First Round Picks

Hey, the Thunder got two future firsts in the Sengun trade!

(They're both heavily protected and could become seconds, but at least for now, it's more firsts for the Thunder arsenal. They've got to do something with those picks at some point, right?)

Cam Thomas (G, Brooklyn Nets)

Thomas showed a knack for scoring with LSU last season, averaging 23.0 points per game, though he shot just 40.6 percent. That efficiency should rise in Brooklyn though, as Thomas will be surrounded by James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving. Expect him to see some rotation minutes for the team depending on how free agency goes.

Trey Murphy (G, New Orleans Pelicans)

Murphy's NBA game is all about shooting, as he shot 43.4 percent from three last season and 92.7 percent from the foul line. Murphy's ability to shoot off the catch should help him find early minutes in the Pelicans rotation, as he'll contribute greatly to their need for spacing around star Zion Williamson. Murphy might struggle to create his own shot, but he's a capable defender who fits the 3-and-D mold that teams want. One of my favorite prospects from outside the lottery.

2021 NBA Draft Losers

Killian Hayes (G, Detroit Pistons)

Again, we knew Cade was heading to the Pistons. That leaves second-year guard Killian Hayes in a weird spot.

The No. 7 pick last year, Hayes struggled, playing 26 games and averaging 6.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on 35.3 percent shooting, with a 27.8 percent mark from three.

The Cunningham pick will likely move Hayes to the bench as the backup point guard, though I suppose we could see the team go young with a Cunningham/Hayes backcourt. But with Cunningham likely being on-ball so much, Hayes loses a lot of his upside.

Jarrett Allen (C, Cleveland Cavaliers)

The Cavs took Evan Mobley. I love Mobley, even if I don't love the landing spot. But assuming Allen stays in Cleveland long term, this really complicates his upside, as the Cavs now have two players who would work best at the five. I expect them to try to play the two together, but will it work? And if it doesn't, Allen's the one who'd see reduced minutes, right?

The Toronto Raptors

The Raptors really took Scottie Barnes over Jalen Suggs. Like...that happened. Nothing against Barnes, but this is a draft where we thought there was a very clearly delineated top four. Cade was No. 1, and then some combination of Green, Mobley, and Suggs were up next.

And then the Raptors took Barnes.

Maybe this team knows more than we do -- I mean, NBA front offices are probably smarter about basketball than I am. But on the surface, it's a baffling move. Maybe Pascal Siakam is on the move.

Moses Moody (G/F, Golden State Warriors)

Our Kev Mahserejian thought Moody should have been the No. 5 pick, but he fell to the Warriors at 14.

Moody's going to be a great two-way wing player, but he joins a Warriors team that has a crowded situation right now when it comes to the wing. Klay Thompson (if healthy) is the starting two. Andrew Wiggins is there, and they could still bring Kelly Oubre Jr. back. They drafted Jonathan Kuminga, who should play some three.

All that leaves Moody without enough minutes as a rookie. Fantasy managers should be upset that Moody didn't land somewhere where he'd have gotten more consistent minutes.

(Now, Wiggins could be dealt and Oubre could sign somewhere else, which would help Moody. Probably.)

San Antonio Spurs

What's this team doing? Joshua Primo was taken at No. 12, and...that was surprising. He averaged 8.1 points and 3.4 rebounds per game last season and has a lot of upside as a scorer, but did the Spurs need guards? Did they need to reach for someone who wasn't thought of as a lottery pick by many? I mean, The Athletic has Primo 34th on their big board.

He's also the youngest player in this class. Are the Spurs getting ready to wave the rebuilding flag?

Davion Mitchell (G, Sacramento Kings)

The 22-year-old is a bit of a risk because of his age, but he was incredibly productive for the Bears last year, averaging 14.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. Arguably the best defensive player in this draft class, Mitchell’s a quick guard who can force offensive players into tough shots and can poke away steals. He also shot 44.7 percent from three last year, showing some huge improvement from deep across his college career. Assuming that wasn’t just a one-year mirage, Mitchell should be able to stick in the NBA.

But the Kings already have De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton at guard, so Mitchell might wind up coming off the bench for the foreseeable future in Sacramento, limiting his fantasy upside. This definitely wasn't the best landing spot when it comes to fit.

The New York Knicks

The Knicks had the 19th and 21st picks, but they traded both picks, ending up with a future first and the 25th pick, which they used on Quentin Grimes.

I like Grimes -- I mean, I'm a UH alum -- but there was some really good talent at 19 and 21 that could have helped this team.

Josh Christopher (G, Houston Rockets)

I like Christopher -- or Jaygup, as a lot of people call him. And I like how he can help the Rockets with his defense. But it'll be tough for Christopher to get extended minutes as a rookie in Houston, especially since the team drafted Jalen Green earlier in the night. He also isn't a good enough shooter yet to get immediate minutes.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis