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Washington Nationals first baseman Josh Bell is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 125
CURRENT ADP: ~149 overall
ANALYSIS: I was already higher than the consensus on Bell following his massively disappointing 2020. After all, this is a former top prospect still in his prime who happened to struggle during the short season. A Christmas Day trade to Washington seems heaven-sent for those who have Bell in dynasty and presents a trade opportunity if the manager who rosters Bell in your league believes that the Pirates have given up on him because he's already peaked. There is no doubt Bell struggled throughout 2020. His .226 average sank many teams and he didn't exactly offset it with eight homers, 22 RBI, and 22 runs scored. It's easy to use the 60-game schedule as an excuse but in this case, it has some teeth. Bell was showing signs of improvement before the schedule wrapped up, slashing a far better .288/.377/.485 in the final 20 games. His 16.6% K-BB% on the year looks like an obvious outlier in his Major League profile when he has kept it to single digits in previous seasons. His swing-and-miss percent had been climbing but it was gradual until the 2020 spike.
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The biggest reason to believe in a Bell bounceback, however, is the new environment. Bell undoubtedly pressed to generate offense for a Pirates team that finished with the third-lowest average at .220 and the fewest runs scored at 219. With no lineup support, pitchers were able to attack him with more breaking pitches. He failed to meet the challenge, struggling to a .120 xBA against breaking balls when he had hit them to the tune of a .309 xBA the previous year. Bell now has the luxury of hitting behind Trea Turner and Juan Soto, which should lead to far more RBI opportunities and fastballs in the zone.
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