NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/28): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for February 28th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Sunday, February 28th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/28

• • Philadelphia Flyers (-165) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
  • Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Nashville Predators (-120) - 5.5U
  • Washington Capitals (-130) vs. New Jersey Devils - 6O
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (-120) vs. New York Islanders - 5O
  • Detroit Red Wings vs. Chicago Blackhawks (-159) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Sidney Crosby, PIT ($6,800 DK / $7,800 FD) - The pricing for centers on DK are a tad soft so might as well take advantage and lock in one of the greatest hockey players of all time under 7k! Crosby found success against the Islanders Saturday night as he recorded a power-play goal and an assist while taking five total shots on goal.
• Sean Couturier,  PHI ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) - Couturier has been stellar as of late as he has recorded nine points over his last five games played including a two-point effort against Buffalo yesterday afternoon. If looking for a cash game staple for your lineup, look no further than Couturier who has scored 10 points in just seven games played this season.
• Lars Eller, WSH ($4,400 DK / $4,600 FD) - Lars Eller has seen some time now skating alongside Alex Ovechkin and if he gets the top center duties again for Sunday, he should certainly be in play. Eller has now produced three points in his last two games will have several opportunities to rack up his stats as he centers the first forward line as well as the second power-play unit.

Other centers to consider: Hayes, Barzal, Malkin, Suter, Laughton

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Patrick Kane, COL ($8,600 DK / $8,700 FD) - Kane was held off of the scorer's sheet on Saturday night but he still remained active on the offensive end as he recorded five shots on goal. He is certainly one of the best spend-up options on the slate as he is generating close to 1.5 points per game and is showing no signs of slowing down.
• Patrick Laine, CBJ ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD) - This is the cheapest pricing on Laine that we have seen for some time and even though he didn't record a point in Saturday's game against Nashville, he still remains to be a strong scoring threat for the Blue Jackets. Since joining Columbus, Laine has generated six goals and 10 total points in 10 games played and would make a great one-off play from Columbus in tournament builds.
• Jared McCann, PIT ($2,500 DK / $3,500 FD) - McCann finally returned from injury and made an immediate impact for Pittsburgh as he took two shots on goal and recorded a goal Saturday night against the Islanders. McCann should get a big boost offensively as he is skating alongside great offensive forward like Malkin and Rust

Other wings to consider: Ovechkin, DeBrincat, Forsberg, Rust, Atkinson, Lee, Eberle, Farabee, Kubalik, Bjorkstrand, Sheary, Beauvillier, Lindblom

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• John Carlson, WSH ($6,700 DK / $7,100 FD) - Carlson was very active on Saturday afternoon as he recorded two assists, took three shots on goal and had a blocked shot in 21 minutes of ice time. Carlson has recorded a point in four straight games and has had a total of seven points scored over that four-game stretch.
• Zach Werenski, CBJ ($4,800 DK / $4,900 FD) - Werenski has been solid over his last two games since returning to the lineup from a lower-body injury. In that two-game span, Werenski has racked up nine total peripheral stats with six of those being shots on goal.
• Mattias Ekholm, NSH ($3,300 DK / $3,500 FD) - Ekholm was out for several weeks due to a lower-body injury but he made a very strong impact once he returned to the lineup as he recorded two goals on four shots on Saturday's win over Columbus. Those were the first two goals of the season for Ekholm and hopefully, these are signs that he is fully healthy and ready to contribute that we have all become accustomed to over the past several years.

Other defensemen to consider: Josi, Jones, Pulock, Ellis, Schultz, Smith, Dobson, Butcher,  Matheson, Boqvist

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Carter Hart, PHI ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) - The Sabres will be without their best offensive play in Jack Eichel and with BUffalo getting shutout to the Flyers on Saturday, I think it is safe to say it is perfect to go back and roster Carter Hart against an Eichel-less Sabres team on the Sunday slate. Hart is 5-3-3 on the year with a 3.68 goals allowed average and a .891 save percentage and is 1-1-1 over his last three games played.
• Kevin Lankinen, CHI ($8,300 DK / $7,400 FD) - Malcolm Subban got the start last night against the Red Wings which means we could see Kevin Lankinen back in net for the Blackhawks come Sunday night. Lankinen is 8-3-3 with a 2.59 goals allowed average and a .921 save percentage while also being 3-0 against Detroit this season. The Red Wings will be without their best player in Dylan Larkin and even though they beat Chicago last night, it is tough to imagine them doing it in back-to-back games.

Other goalies to consider: Rinne

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• CHI 1
  • Kane/ Suter/ DeBrincat (Boqvist, d-men add on)
    • While the Blackhawks were unable to pull out the win against Detroit on Saturday night, I am tempted to go right back to the well with their top line while also considering their power-play unit as well. Chicago is sporting a top three power-play unit while Detroit has one of the worst penalty kill units in the league and the Kane line generated 15 scoring chances and two high-danger opportunities in 15 minutes of ice time. They are an expensive stack on both sites but as we have seen before, higher price points could bring down ownership a bit which is where leverage can be found.  
• NYI 1
  • Lee/ Barzal/ Eberle (Pulock, d-men add on)
    • The Islanders top line came through for us last night and we should go back to them once again. They saw a combination of the second and third line and really took advantage of the third line matchup as they were able to generate a goal on five scoring chances. The line matching will look to carry over for New York and we should see similar line matches which mean that the top line featuring Matt Barzal is back in play as a full tournament stack.
• PIT 2 
  • McCann / Malkin/ Rust (Matheson, d-men add on)
    • The Pens second line looked very good last night as they were able to avoid the Nelson line for the Islanders and saw some time facing the top and third line for the Islanders. Throughout the game, the Malkin line generated 13 scoring chances and five high-danger opportunities while also sporting a 64.52 corsi for 13 minutes of ice time. The addition of McCann rounds out this line and also makes them a cheaper stack since he is still min priced on both sites so make sure to get him while he is still cheap.

Other Stacks to consider: PHI 1, WSH 1/PP, CHI 2

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Barzal (1.4X), Couturier (1.5X), Jenner (1.8X)

W: Kane (1.15X), Laine (1.3X), Lee (1.35X), Forsberg (1.6X)

D: Carlson (1.25X), Josi (1.35X), Werenski (1.55X), Boqvist(1.8X)

G: Hart (1.25X), Lankinen (2X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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