Stunted Growth: Prospects Who Need More Time

January 10, 2021

Michael Grennell identifies MLB prospects who may not be ready for the pros in 2021. These players may be overvalued in fantasy baseball leagues, especially in dynasty if they linger in the minor leagues another season.

So in 2018 and 2019, I was living the dream as I interned for a Minor League Baseball team, and I was looking forward to coming back in 2020. And then the season was canceled. Obviously, I was disappointed by everything that happened, but while I can shrug off missing a summer of interning and that won't affect me in the long run, having a year off can end up being a significant step back for some prospects.

Now it's not like all minor leaguers were just at home sitting on the couch this summer. They were still working out, getting instruction and honing their skills. But that kind of experience is not the same as what you get when you take the field against another team. For some guys who were already on the verge of getting the call to the show, or guys who were going to be several years away from the majors anyway, a summer of instructionals won't be as big of a deal for them. They should still be ready to go and be back on track in 2021. But for guys who were looking to bounce back from injuries or off seasons, a year without live game action could be a setback for their major league ETA.

If you're in a dynasty league and you've been anxiously awaiting help from some of these players, you might want to take a deep breath and be patient as it could be a little bit longer before we see them make an impact in fantasy.

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Travis Swaggerty (OF, PIT)

2021 Age: 23
2019 Highest Level: A+
2019 Stats: 121 G, .265/.347/.381, 9 HR, 23 SB, 116:57 K:BB

The 10th overall pick in the 2018 Amateur Draft, Swaggerty showed a power-speed combo coming out of South Alabama that caught the attention of many scouts. A three-year starter for the Jaguars, Swaggerty finished second on the team as a freshman with 20 steals and led the team in steals as a sophomore with 19 swipes. His sophomore year was also where his power began to show, as he finished third on the team with 11 home runs and then as a junior he led the team with 13 homers. His sophomore and junior years at South Alabama, he maintained at least a .455 on-base percentage, a .525 slugging percentage, and had more walks than strikeouts.

But in his first season of pro ball in 2018, Swaggerty struggled to adjust between the New York-Penn League and South Atlantic League. Over 52 games, he slashed .239/.322/.383 with five home runs, nine steals and 58 strikeouts (25.3 K%) to 22 walks (9.6 BB%). In 2019 with the High-A Bradenton Marauders he showed some improvement, as he raised his average to .265 and his on-base percentage to .347, while also lowering his strikeout rate to 22.1 percent and improving his walk rate to 10.9 percent. However his power potential still had yet to translate to the minors, as his slugging percentage ticked down a couple of points to .381, and his ISO dropped from .144 to .116.

It's not hard to imagine if Swaggerty had the 2020 season to continue to improve his approach at the plate, he might have had a chance to fight for some playing time in Pittsburgh in mid-to-late 2021. Especially with the Pirates currently projected to have an outfield consisting of Bryan Reynolds, Gregory Polanco, and Anthony Alford. But now it seems likely that Swaggerty will spend 2021 between High-A and AA, and he'll hope to fight for playing time in 2022.

Nolan Gorman (3B, STL)

2021 Age: 21
2019 Highest Level: A+
2019 Stats: 125 G, .248/.326/.439, 15 HR, 2 SB, 152:45 K:BB

Gorman mashed his way through the lower ranks of the Cardinals' system in his first year of pro ball, posting a .949 on-base plus slugging percentage with a .291 average and 17 home runs between the Appalachian League and Midwest League in 2018. The next season saw his numbers trend down a bit, as he hit .248 with a .765 OPS while his ISO dipped from .279 to .191. But as a 19-year-old splitting time between Single-A and High-A, he still managed to finish second in the Cardinals farm system with 30 doubles, tied for second with six triples and tied for fifth with 15 home runs.

Probably the main thing that Gorman would have worked on in 2020 would have been his plate discipline. In his second year in the minors, Gorman saw his strikeout rate rise from 27.7 percent to 29.7 percent while his walk rate dropped from 12.4 percent to 8.8 percent. 2020 would have been a significant season for Gorman in terms of projecting when he could begin making an impact in fantasy. If he bounced back from 2019 and we saw improvements in his power and his plate discipline, dynasty managers would likely start considering the possibility of a late-season/September call-up for Gorman in 2021. With the decline of Matt Carpenter, we might be considering Gorman as a contender for playing time at third in 2022.

Granted, that would have been somewhat aggressive considering his age, but it's not impossible to think that could have happened. As it stands now though, managers should look at Gorman as most likely becoming fantasy relevant in 2023 or 2024.

Brent Honeywell Jr. (SP, TB)

2021 Age: 26
2019 Highest Level: DNP (Reached Triple-A in 2017)
2017 Stats: 13-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 172 K, 136.2 IP

If you had to pick just the absolute unluckiest baseball player in recent years, Honeywell has got to be one of the top guys in consideration. He started for the United States in the 2017 All-Star Futures Game, his 172 strikeouts were the sixth-most by any pitcher in the minor leagues, and he was a consensus top-15 prospect heading into the 2018 season. Then, at the beginning of Spring Training in 2018, Honeywell tore his UCL during a workout and had to undergo Tommy John surgery.

He worked his way back, battling through some setbacks in rehab, as he hoped to return to the mound the following year. But then in June 2019, he fractured a bone in his right elbow during a bullpen session — another season-ending injury. Then the 2020 minor league season was canceled. By the time we get to the tentative 2021 Opening Day date of April 1, it will have been 1,306 days since Honeywell last pitched in a game.

Honeywell was one of the hottest pitching prospects in the game, and now he's missed three years of development. He seemed to be on track to join Tampa Bay's rotation in 2018, but now it seems his best-case scenario will be a potential September call-up in 2021. The Rays are almost certainly going to have an innings limit on him, and he'll likely spend this year at Triple-A. If he does well this year, he might crack the big league squad in 2022, but don't be surprised if the Rays go easy on him again to make sure he can withstand the workload from back-to-back seasons. Managers can still hope that Honeywell can come back from these injuries and fulfill the potential he showed years ago, but it might not be until 2022 or even 2023 that he'll be fantasy relevant.

Michael Kopech (SP, CHW)

2021 Age: 25
2019 Highest Level: DNP (Reached MLB in 2018)
2018 MLB Stats: 1-1, 5.02 ERA, 1.535 WHIP, 15 K, 14.1 IP

He might have made his major league debut two years ago, but yes, Kopech is still considered a prospect. After making 24 starts at Triple-A in 2018, Kopech got the call to the show in August and made four starts for the White Sox, tossing 14.1 innings before having to undergo Tommy John surgery — wiping out his 2019 campaign. He was healthy and ready to go for the 2020 season, but then shortly before it began he chose to opt-out of playing. While it's a somewhat similar situation to Honeywell as they've both missed multiple seasons in a row, Kopech at least will be ready for the 2021 season and is projected to be in the White Sox rotation.

The question with Kopech isn't whether or not he's capable of pitching a full workload — it's his control. Kopech had a history of being wild in the minors, and at Triple-A in 2018 he posted a 1.274 WHIP — the second-highest mark of his career — a 4.3 BB/9 and an 11.1 percent walk rate. For some perspective regarding the walks, those two marks were the second-best of his minor league career. So at this point, he's missed out on two seasons of working on improving his control.

It would not be surprising at all for Kopech to have some significant growing pains in 2021, and fantasy managers may not want to have him in their rotation every time out. Now, instead of being fantasy relevant right out of the gate this year, Kopech might not provide much value until late this season and might not reach his full potential until 2022.

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